How long will PMC "Wagner" last?

Mumin Shakirov and his guests in a special edition of the program

There was an attempted coup in Russia. The founder of the private military company "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin blocked the military installations of Rostov-on-Don, demanded that the Chief of the General Staff, the Russian Minister of Defense be handed over to him and threatened to march on Moscow. Putin, in an emergency address, declared “betrayal of Russia” and compared the situation with 1917.

Guests of the broadcast: editor-in-chief of the publication "Novaya Gazeta. Europe" Kirill Martynov , military experts Yuri Fedorov and Vladislav Seleznev , as well as executive director of the "Sitting Russia" movement Olga Romanova and opposition politician from Belarus Pavel Latushko .

Video version of the program

How long will Yevgeny Prigozhin last?

Mumin Shakirov: It all started on the morning of June 23, when the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, in his long interview, said that Ukraine did not intend to attack Russia, and the war was unleashed by the oligarchic clan in power and the General Staff of the Russian Federation. Towards evening, he accused the Ministry of Defense of striking Wagner positions and called for stopping the evil carried out by the country's military leadership.

My guest is Kirill Martynov . How long will Yevgeny Prigozhin last? And can anyone support him from the Kremlin, the military Ministry of Defense, the FSB or other armed structures?

The key question is whether Prigozhin will find any allies for himself

Kirill Martynov: The situation as a whole is unprecedented, because in general projects such as the Prigozhin rebellion usually have a very short lifespan. But the peculiarity of the current situation is that, on the one hand, Prigozhin claims: he has a very large and combat-ready group that is already inside the country and is ready to act. On the other hand, the Ukrainian front has not gone away either, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are ready to continue the offensive. And, I think, chaos and violence, unfortunately, can become the norm of life for many Russian cities, just as Russia became an aggressor country for people from Ukraine and for Ukrainian cities. The key question is whether Prigozhin will find any allies for himself. If so, then his rebellion has the potential to become something more.

Mumin Shakirov: So far, various politicians are reporting that they support Putin. Will there be a battle between Kadyrov’s men and Prigozhin’s men, given that Kadyrov’s units have already entered Rostov-on-Don?

Kirill Martynov: In the media and in the mass consciousness, everything seems to be that there are two villains, and now, in fact, like gangs, they will divide the beautiful city of Rostov among themselves. I am very skeptical about this, because it is reliably known: Kadyrov’s units, by and large, specialize in war against unarmed people. They know how to kidnap, torture and kill people. And they really want to live long and richly in their Chechnya, which they have turned into their property. It is still quite difficult for me to imagine that a city battle will begin at night between the suddenly activated Kadyrovites and the Wagner PMC, consisting of people who really want to kill and are ready to die. At the same time, the events from last night to this morning developed so rapidly that I am no longer ready to rule out: maybe, at some very high personal request, the forces of “Akhmat” will actually enter the city battle. If only for the reason that it is necessary to finally show that at least someone is ready to start this battle, since throughout the day we see how the Russian security forces are running away.

Mumin Shakirov: We learn from a resident of Rostov-on-Don, Anna , what is happening in the city and what picture she sees.

Anna, where are you and what picture are you seeing now?

Anna: I immediately want to make a reservation that I was in the center and saw everything that was happening there from morning to one o’clock in the afternoon. The situation is changing very quickly, so what is happening now is difficult to say. Firstly, the city lives its own life, people go about their business: some to work, others somewhere else. Everything is as usual. Transport runs as usual. You can’t say that something serious is happening, some kind of military coup. Banks, shops, all institutions are open. Of course, I couldn’t go around the whole city, but I saw that all the important events were happening in one spot - opposite its headquarters and along the perimeter, the next two or three streets. All the equipment is concentrated there, the same tank that has already become famous for not fitting into the circus gates . There I saw two more tanks and armored personnel carriers: some stood right on the street, some inside the headquarters building. And there are a lot of people in camouflage uniforms around...

Mumin Shakirov: Did you see Kadyrov’s men? Is someone talking about how a whole convoy from Grozny entered the city? Or is it at the level of some kind of picture?

Anna: Perhaps it happened. Kadyrov’s men reported on social networks that they were just approaching the city. I live in another area and am describing the picture that was at the beginning of today. The situation can change every minute. I came and there was absolute calm. And what struck me was that the Wagnerites were very friendly to the townspeople. They communicated with them, emphasizing that “we don’t want you to get hurt.” They were very polite, they said: “Please move away. Please come through. There is a place for equipment. You don’t need to stand here.” It’s unusual if you compare it with how our police officers behave during some peaceful events.

Mumin Shakirov: Kirill, what became the boiling point that Prigozhin went all-in?

Kirill Martynov: On the one hand, this rebellion was prepared for more than one day, maybe several months - this is a completely realistic period. On the other hand, after Bakhmut was occupied and the forces of the Wagner PMC were withdrawn from there, they began to actively hint to Prigozhin that, in principle, he had completed his mission and his services were no longer needed in the same form. This means that military companies should resubordinate themselves to the Ministry of Defense, on the one hand, and Prigozhin should take the place of, perhaps, some kind of military adviser. Starting from the year 14, we know that many so-called “heroes of Donbass” found a place for themselves not in the palace or in some high office, but in the cemetery, when they were expended, when they were no longer needed. We still have to investigate this. But there is an assumption that some of these liquidations could be directly related to Prigozhin’s structures, so he knows, like no one else, what happens to spent heroes in this system, which he built with his own hands. So in a sense he had nothing to lose. This is one possible explanation.

Mumin Shakirov: Criticizing, humiliating, insulting Gerasimov and Shoigu, he never mentioned Putin’s name. For him, Shoigu, Gerasimov and the entire military leadership are evil, and Putin is, as it were, a separate story. Or does he “write two, three in mind”?

Kirill Martynov: He intuitively understands certain political rules of the game that existed in Putin’s Russia: everyone around is nonentity, parasites and corrupt officials, and Vladimir Putin needs to be told the whole truth. It is possible to accuse the military leadership of Russia of all mortal sins, but you need to get to Putin in order to sit down with him, like men, and finally at least someone will tell him the truth for the only time in this entire war. This is very similar in mechanics, excuse me, to the Pugachev riot.

Will Prigozhin reach Moscow?

Mumin Shakirov: Yuri Fedorov is in touch with us. Will Prigozhin reach Moscow? And what can prevent this?

The police and the Russian Guard have taken an interesting position - non-interference, and this is very important

Yuriy Fedorov: Let’s ask a question: what didn’t stop his people from reaching Yelets, walking several hundred kilometers without much resistance? This is the most interesting circumstance in the whole story. In my opinion, the rather calm progress of his people indicates that the Russian nomenklatura, bureaucracy and the command of security agencies or so-called law enforcement agencies... Although what kind of law can we talk about in Russia?.. There is no law other than the law of the strong. But that's not the point. All military, police commanders, heads of local departments of the Russian Guard and all other departments simply took a neutral position: “We don’t know who will ultimately be in power, whether it will remain in the hands of Putin or Prigozhin will come, so it’s better not to interfere, not to enter into any clashes with Prigozhin’s forces, with Prigozhin’s formations.” Apparently that's what they think. They, of course, received orders to stop, detain, disperse... But there are a lot of objective circumstances that could prevent them from carrying out this order: someone got sick, someone didn’t have gasoline, a third ran out of cartridges - it happened by chance. The police and the Russian Guard have taken an interesting position - non-interference, and this is very important.

Mumin Shakirov: The FSB is Putin’s support. Can the FSB take the side of the rebel and rebel? Or will they watch to see who gets it?

Yuri Fedorov: The FSB, like other law enforcement agencies, are people, among other things. And every person in such a department is trying to find an answer to the question: what will happen to me if Putin stays in jail and when Prigozhin wins? And I think each person gives a different answer to this question. Therefore, it is wrong to talk about the FSB as a kind of rhinoceros that crushes everything around. No, this is a large number of different small rhinoceroses, and each has its own plot, its own field of activity. The FSB, like the Ministry of Internal Affairs, like the Russian Guard, at least at the middle level of command, also prefers to sit on its hands. Just like the KGB in 1993 and 1991.

Mumin Shakirov: No matter who Vladimir Putin chooses as his successor, it will be difficult for him to coordinate the candidacy with his disparate circle. Who can he rely on now in such a situation?

Kirill Martynov: The inner circle of people with whom he has known for a long time, such as Patrushev, Kovalchuk... Plus, I think, those whom he promoted into politics as his praetorians, as former security, they now occupy positions, for example, governors, like Dyumin. These two groups of people - old friends and new appointees - are the most loyal circles around Putin. Some of them may come forward as some kind of young savior of the Fatherland, as if a defender of the sovereign-emperor. Since the so-called sovereign himself is not in very good shape, it is obvious that another Bonaparte is needed, who will take a conservative position, as if defending the counter-revolution.

Mumin Shakirov: How do you like the reaction of entrepreneur and public figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who came up with the idea of ​​supporting Prigozhin? And immediately received a full blow from critics who believed that the liberal opposition should not be associated with Wagner.

Kirill Martynov: I completely agree that the liberal opposition should not be associated with Wagner. And most importantly, I don’t really understand why Prigozhin is better than Putin and why the victory of one of them over the other will benefit someone. I think it would be beneficial for civil society in Russia if these two groups fought each other, injuring, harming civilians as little as possible, and weakening each other as much as possible, so that the window of opportunity (as Khodorkovsky says) would actually open as a result of the clash between the two crime families.

Mumin Shakirov: Are any new opportunities opening up for the liberal opposition located abroad in connection with the situation around Prigozhin?

Kirill Martynov: Today I even got the feeling that maybe it’s time to gradually move towards Pskov. If there really is an opportunity to work in your homeland, you should take advantage of it, even if it involves some risks. The situation of destabilization of Vladimir Putin’s power, and also an emergency, literally the collapse of all hopes and all so-called stability, is, of course, a political opportunity. Now the opposition needs to be wise in order to use this opportunity in the right way, in particular, so as not to take a cannibalistic position. Just like calls for a civil war, in which a huge number of people will die, especially calls to support a person like Prigozhin, cannot be called a humanistic position. Still, we need to look for some third point of support, perhaps some group inside Russia that is ready to say: “Putin no longer guarantees our security from people like Prigozhin, but he, of course, also cannot count on anything in the political sense of the word.”

Mumin Shakirov: Have you prepared your suitcase just in case?

Kirill Martynov: Yes.

How can the Ukrainian Armed Forces take advantage of the situation?

Mumin Shakirov: Vladislav Seleznev is in touch with us from Ukraine. How can the Ukrainian Armed Forces now take advantage of the situation and change the front line? Is this a chance?

Prigozhin’s actions are not a chance for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to change the front line

Vladislav Seleznev: No, Prigozhin’s actions are not a chance for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to change the front line. And I am sure that the Ukrainian General Staff will not act in exactly this way. After all, it is absolutely obvious that the success of the Ukrainian army, first of all, lies in the fact that we have the ability to systematically, methodically destroy enemy reserves. We are destroying their ammunition depots, liquidating warehouses where the Russians store their weapons, equipment, where they place personnel, command posts with the help of Ukrainian artillery and aviation. Those same Storm Shadow missiles also turn to ash. But rushing headlong into a counter-offensive because there is now turmoil in Rostov is, I think, an absolutely irrational tactic. After all, the enemy has seriously prepared for a Ukrainian counter-offensive. Solid mines, anti-personnel, anti-tank fields, a very powerful system of fortified areas, trenches, defense lines - all this creates very serious problems for the advancement of the Ukrainian defense forces. Therefore, I am very skeptical about the statements of some experts that the events in Russia are a chance for the Ukrainian defense forces. The chance for the Ukrainian defense forces is a sufficient amount of ammunition and methodical combat work against enemy positions.

Mumin Shakirov: Could Prigozhin become an unwitting ally of Kiev if he and his team enter into battle with the Russian Ministry of Defense?

Vladislav Seleznev: Prigozhin is a very serious enemy, well prepared, well provided. Please note how serious a military outpost has been created for the Wagner column, which is currently moving towards Moscow. And the fact that he is now debriefing with the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces is, from some point of view, good. But I don’t think that this can in any way affect the situation on the battlefield. The controllability of all Russian forces and assets involved in the so-called “SVO” is respected, and combat operations are ongoing. The Ukrainian General Staff literally announced today that heavy fighting is taking place in the Liman direction, in the Avdeevka area, in the Marinka area. The Russians are trying to counterattack in the south of the Zaporozhye region. What kind of imbalance in military control can we talk about? This is nonsense!

Mumin Shakirov: In one of his speeches these days, Prigozhin said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have achieved some success and liberated tens of square kilometers. Was he bluffing to motivate his actions? Or is the Ukrainian Armed Forces really successful, and Prigozhin confirms this?

Vladislav Seleznev: The successes of the Ukrainian army are extremely modest if we are talking about returning our territories from Russian occupation. But in terms of destroying enemy reserves - ammunition depots, storage sites for armored vehicles and weapons - they are impressive. Over the past week, at least several arrivals at the ports of Berdyansk and Mariupol, large warehouses in the south of the Kherson region were destroyed, and a bridge in the Chongar area was destroyed.

Mumin Shakirov: The first victims may have appeared from the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Ka-52 helicopter was shot down in the Voronezh region by fighters of the Wagner PMC, the crew was killed. Military correspondent Poddubny writes about this. Kirill, do you see any serious figure in this story, who can take responsibility, except, of course, Putin, besides Kadyrov and besides Prigozhin? Are there any figures at all?

Kirill Martynov: Let’s say Prigozhin gets to Moscow, establishes himself at some strong point, and so several days pass. Prigozhin is offered some conditions for negotiations. Who, in principle, is capable of conducting these negotiations? I think that if the situation is difficult enough for the Russian authorities, then Sergei Sobyanin could well be such a negotiator. More balanced ideas may emerge from people like Sobyanin.

Mumin Shakirov: So it was no coincidence that you mentioned the name of Sergei Sobyanin?

Kirill Martynov: I would call him now as an example of a person who obviously takes a more balanced position, despite all his characteristics and his involvement in the war crimes of this regime, this war. But the man still doesn’t seem to be involved in some radical decisions; at least, he didn’t seem to break anyone’s head with a sledgehammer. This kind of people, who were previously called “technocrats,” can still organize certain processes, and some of them are capable, including with the support of part of the opposition abroad, to become an intermediate, consensus figure if this crisis grows. For now, of course, this is all wishful thinking, and it is premature to talk about it in the current conditions.

How cohesive is Prigozhin’s team?

Mumin Shakirov: How united will Yevgeny Prigozhin’s team be if they have to really fight with the Ministry of Defense and Kadyrov’s men? I talked about this with Olga Romanova .

Is it possible to say that the prisoners who were released by Prigozhin essentially have nothing to lose and will go to the end?

Olga Romanova: Yes, of course. Moreover, they immediately have several circumstances that do not allow them to act differently. They were unable to socialize within Russia, in peaceful, civil life. No one has studied them - neither sociopsychologists, nor psychiatrists... This is absolutely necessary, because they have post-traumatic, post-war and penitentiary syndromes. Of course, they are not settled, they have run out of money. And they have a feeling that many have for the first time in their lives - need. They are not needed anywhere in freedom, they do not and will not have a job, usually they do not and will not have a family, they do not and will not have a home. And here their guys need them. And they, of course, are all subject to the very simple, understandable, populist ideology of Prigozhin, who completely occupied, further expanding and deepening, Zhirinovsky’s niche. I added a little bit from Makhno, a little bit from Petlyura, and, in general, it turned out to be absolutely chic. Naturally, marginalized sections of the population, and not only prisoners, make up a very large support group for Prigozhin.

Anyone in the Russian government can support Prigozhin, including Ramzan Kadyrov

Mumin Shakirov: How will this situation affect the soldiers of the Wagner PMC at the front and in the rear? After all, some of the criminals returned home.

Olga Romanova: Criminals who returned home will, of course, join the Wagner PMC. But what’s interesting: this morning, from parental chats (and each zone has its own parental chats - these are parents, wives, prisoners) information came out that the local FSB was collecting information about all the relatives of those prisoners who were recruited into the Wagner PMC. As I understand it, we are already talking about hostages. What will happen to the people at the front? We have already seen today the appeal of fighters already recruited by the Ministry of Defense, these are prisoners located in the Storm Z unit, who expressed their desire to join the rebels of the Wagner PMC. And, naturally, I think that along the way, potential or imprisoned criminals will also join the Wagner PMC.

Mumin Shakirov: Who from the Russian government can support Prigozhin?

Olga Romanova: I think that anyone in the Russian government can support Prigozhin, including Ramzan Kadyrov. We saw this morning the scene in Rostov, in the command of the Southern Military District, when Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, Deputy Minister of Defense, and General Alekseev, who a few hours earlier addressed Prigozhin with a demand to stop this disgrace, had a wonderful coffee with him in the morning, smiled, shook his hand, and saw him off.

Mumin Shakirov: It seems to me that one of the main events, in addition to what happened today, happened the day before, when Yevgeny Prigozhin gave a long lecture. He said amazing things that Ukraine did not intend to attack Russia, and the war was started by the oligarchic clan in power and the General Staff of the Russian Federation. Is this a play on words? Is this flirting, a bluff in order to somehow justify your behavior? Or does he really believe that this war was not provoked by the Ukrainian side...

Kirill Martynov: He adds that “now, since we are there, we have no right to retreat, because otherwise Russia will perish.” And it turns out that “some corrupt officials dragged us into this war,” and it is up to such heroes as, in fact, Yevgeny Prigozhin and his hired prisoners to end this war. I think that this is a holistic position for Prigozhin; he really is now moving towards Moscow with this agenda.

Mumin Shakirov: Do you believe that he really thinks: the Kremlin started this war in vain? And who does he call the oligarchic clan? Can you name the names of these oligarchic comrades?

Kirill Martynov: He is primarily interested in the clans of the Ministry of Defense. Shoigu, I think, is quite a wealthy man who made good money from supplying the Russian army and all other tasks associated with it. Under him sits a huge number of corrupt generals. This is also no secret. And then there are numerous people, conditional residents of Rublyovka, whom Prigozhin has long irritated, whom he often recalls in his speeches - these are Russian oligarchs, businessmen, some of them are trying to take some kind of half-hearted position, neither yours nor ours. This is a significant part of Putin’s elite, which is under such question, from Prigozhin’s point of view. As if they don’t give the guys from “Wagner” shells, for example, or something else. This is a very chaotic, but completely coherent political platform on which Prigozhin now stands. She is very tomboyish: “You got us into this, now we have to figure it out, but first we’ll deal with you.”

Mumin Shakirov: Is it possible to say that after Prigozhin answered Putin that he was not going to lay down his arms, he now shifted his emphasis from Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov and Defense Minister Shoigu to the president, and now he is in direct conflict with Vladimir Putin?

Kirill Martynov: There is de facto a conflict with Vladimir Putin, because he has already devoted an entire special message to this conflict. Even, say, Alexei Navalny has never received such an “honor” in his career. At the same time, Prigozhin himself is still trying to play the card of the good king who was deceived. Maybe not a very kind king, but a man who is quite well informed, and before you judge and punish him, or somehow conflict with him, you still need to talk to him like a man.

Mumin Shakirov: What will happen to Putin's nuclear electorate? After all, when speaking about a coup d'etat or high treason, drawing analogies with 1917, he does not mention the name of Yevgeny Prigozhin. Moreover, Prigozhin has always been limited on federal television channels. Will the people go crazy - suddenly, out of nowhere, some kind of Wagnerian? And won't there be some confusion in the minds of voters...

Kirill Martynov: When such things arise... even in 1717, indeed, all these characters - Kerensky, Kornilov and a dozen other heroes fit into the minds of the people at some level, even all these parties were numerous. Now we don’t have any parties. But what has now happened before our eyes is, of course, the transformation of the old Putin into some new state, “post-Prigogine Putinism.” Because, nevertheless, besides fear, indifference and contempt, the people had some respect for Putin. And there were even some hopes that after all, this is an intelligent person who has been sitting in his post for a long time, he will figure it out. It seems to me that people are gradually losing respect and hope, the feeling, the illusion that the Russian state can provide people with minimal security and guarantees that we will live a normal life. And they disappear, just like the clock ticking while Prigozhin goes to Moscow.

A look at Prigozhin's rebellion from Belarus

Mumin Shakirov: The whole world is watching the situation in Russia. And another important character, his name is Alexander Lukashenko. Let's listen to what is happening, what the reaction is in Belarus, from the lips of Pavel Latushko .

Lukashenko feels a threat to his power, looking at the Prigozhin riot

How is the situation with Prigozhin’s revolt now reflected in Belarus? Is there a threat to Lukashenko's power?

Pavel Latushko: Lukashenko feels a threat to his power, looking at Prigozhin’s rebellion. At two o'clock in the morning, he interrupted his participation in the youth get-together, which he likes to organize on the occasion of Graduate Day, and gathered his generals, the so-called Security Council in a reduced composition, and considered the development of the situation in the Russian Federation. We have information that he has already had four conversations with Putin since the morning. He gave the order - and at 10 am an emergency meeting of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus began. Today is a working day for all central offices of law enforcement agencies. Lukashenko, as far as we understand, is now faced with a choice whether or not to send Special Operations Forces to help Putin to repel the movement of Prigozhin’s army towards Moscow. At least, such signals are coming to us. We can talk about one of the brigades of the Special Operations Forces - the Vitebsk brigade. Therefore, Lukashenko, on the one hand, sees potential internal pressure, and he is already trying to prepare for this, he understands that there are external factors - these are Belarusian volunteers who fight as part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There is also a request from Putin, and this is also a challenge and a potential problem for him. By the way, he has already taken part of his family to Turkey. At night, the plane urgently took off from Minsk airport in the direction of Turkey, it had already landed there.

Mumin Shakirov: Is Lukashenko ready to flirt with Europe again if Putin weakens, or is his path to the West closed?

Pavel Latushko: I don’t think there is a chance to flirt with Europe. We, of course, hope that our European partners will not agree to this situation. As a joint transitional cabinet, a transit government, we created an operational situational headquarters, this headquarters was headed by the representative of the cabinet on national security and defense issues, Valery Sakhashchik, a lieutenant colonel, who is also responsible for interaction with the security sector. The operational headquarters will work both in the foreign policy arena and inside Belarus. We now call on all Belarusians to step up their participation in the Peramoga plan and be prepared for the development of the situation in Belarus. And when the “window of opportunity” opens, we will have to use it to abolish the Lukashenko regime and ensure the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Belarus, restore power and transfer it into the hands of the Belarusian people. The corresponding algorithm of actions, in addition to the general words that I spoke about, of course, is prescribed by us. And we will implement it as the situation develops. The operational headquarters will operate around the clock.

Mumin Shakirov: Could this new situation become a reason for Lukashenko to get out of Putin’s clutches and become a more independent player, since Putin himself is now in a difficult situation?

Pavel Latushko: Let's have no illusions. All these questions that you raise, Western politicians are talking about this, and have said before, this is an erroneous assessment of the position of Lukashenko’s role in the war, in preparation for the war. When he and Putin discussed all the secret plans back in 2021, how they would carry out aggression against Ukraine, they accepted the military doctrine of the Union State, they formed a large Russian group that attacked Ukraine, and subsequently Lukashenko fully supports Russia’s war against Ukraine, he is the aggressor. The fact that he did not send troops is only deceiving the whole situation, an incorrect interpretation. He does not send troops because he is afraid of protests within the country; Putin does not need these protests. Therefore, today there is no talk of any withdrawal from the alliance with Putin. On the contrary, a statement was just made by the Security Council of Belarus, which is headed by the illegitimate Lukashenko, where it was said that we are absolute allies of the Russian Federation, we are allies of Russia in a special military operation. We are Lukashenko and the Security Council. And they will do their best to maintain stability in Russia. Therefore, the issue of the possible sending of units of the Special Operations Forces of Belarus to the Russian Federation is being discussed. Therefore, such an approach, such an interpretation would be absolutely wrong. I am convinced that this scenario is irrelevant.

Mumin Shakirov: Life always writes a scenario that we do not expect, and it is difficult for us to come up with it. Few predicted that Putin would start this war. And today there is a rebellion, a military rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin. Did this come as a surprise to you? Or did you still guess that something like this was going to happen?

Kirill Martynov: When we talk about people who lead states and build some geopolitical plans, then for some reason we always attribute to them some rationality, that they still understand that they are acting. They have good sources of information, they have some kind of developed plans, hundreds of thousands of people work for them. And when life shows over and over again that this is not so, it is always very surprising. What happened to Prigozhin over the past year and a half? He was given unlimited carte blanche, in particular, carte blanche to violate all conceivable ideas of common sense, and what is left of the laws of the Russian Federation, when an unregistered armed group drags prisoners out of prisons in order to go kill someone in a neighboring country. As unthinkable as it may be, we have already gotten used to it over the past year and a half. And, of course, when you look at this for a year and a half, you say: “This is impossible, this cannot work like that, a state cannot exist, even in the form of a dictatorship, with such a free radical revolving around this state. In theory, something will happen to this someday.” But, of course, you cannot imagine that the people who are supposedly responsible for the future of Russia are capable of bringing down everything that is left of Russian stability in 12 hours. This is simply beyond expectations, simply because you usually try to respect your opponents and the dictatorship that you are studying, at least a little bit as an opponent, as a criminal opponent, but still a terrible one. But it turns out that there is still a large portion of what is pathetic, shameful, and simply stupid here. We had Ivan the Terrible, and it still seems to me that today’s Vladimir may go down in history as Vladimir the Fool, such a simple word.

Mumin Shakirov: Let me remind you that one of the American journalists in The New York Times wrote: “The most dangerous fool in the world.” I'll try to be the devil's advocate. When Prigozhin talks about how his heart bleeds because a huge number of Russian soldiers and officers died on the battlefield, that is, he buried them, we are talking about tens of thousands, and blames the Ministry of Defense - in your opinion, is this sincere compassion or is it a game?

Kirill Martynov: We may be entering the field of psychopathy here. There are completely sincere psychopaths who know what empathy is because they read about it in books. Or capable of empathy in some contexts. And Prigozhin, for example, suddenly says very humane things about Ukrainians from time to time.

Mumin Shakirov: Pays tribute to the courage of the enemy.

Kirill Martynov: Yes. And Russian propaganda says: “No, these are Nazis, these are nonhumans, we destroyed them and will continue to destroy them.” Solovyov every day, except today, the last day, proposes to launch a nuclear strike in recent months on some country that he does not like, today. Against this background, when Prigozhin says that “we respect our opponents,” it still looks more reasonable. That is, the absolute madman and psychopath Prigozhin looks like a more reasonable person than Russian propaganda and the leadership of the Russian Federation. This is what we have. And so, it seems to me, what is the reason for your question.

Mumin Shakirov: Maybe he plays on the right notes, so in this regard he wins the information war against his opponents?

Kirill Martynov: He’s like Bonaparte, he wants attention, power. Why should he play anything else?..

Mumin Shakirov: Is Putin taking the hit? What do you think of his behavior?

Kirill Martynov: I believe that Putin has completely failed as a media object, at least. That is, in a certain sense of the word, there is no Putin right now. He made an extremely weak statement, poorly prepared, probably corrected by himself. The weakest link in Putin's morning statement was the comparison of the situation with 1917. Because no matter how poorly our people know history, everyone understands that if the head of state says “otherwise it will be 1917,” this means “that’s it, you need to withdraw money from the banks (if you still have it there), perhaps try to leave the country.” All these things are very well understood by our people. And calls to punish those responsible for the rebellion and to unite against this background do not work at all.

Mumin Shakirov: Do you have the feeling that this text was written hastily, and the analogy with 17 is a somewhat strained story?

Kirill Martynov: There are self-fulfilling predictions. If the head of state says: “It’s 1917 in our yard,” how reliable is this? Everyone begins to behave accordingly. We know very well what happens in 1917. For a conditional major of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, a “window of opportunity” is now really opening: what if he makes the right political bet and after some time turns out to be the king of the world?

Mumin Shakirov: How do you like the reaction of the Kremlin propagandists, and there are many of them, including Simonyan, Solovyov, Norkin, and others, are they at a loss? Or do you expect them to start changing their shoes soon because everyone talks about it so often?

Kirill Martynov: So far, it seems to me that consolidation is still going, rather, in the direction of Vladimir Putin, we see it. That is, before changing shoes, some time must still pass, some reasons must happen. Simonyan, as far as I understand, has been silent for a day. Soloviev recorded a very sad video from a car, where he called: “Brothers, don’t shoot each other!”, as they sang in one bandit song from the 90s. He said that “all of us, Russian people, must unite.” He is not as enthusiastic about the situation as nuclear strikes or the launch of what they call a special military operation. Propaganda has become sadder, it seems to me, and this was visible even at the first stage of propaganda work, when on Channel One... okay, I also understand that Ekaterina Andreeva was pulled out at night - this may still make some sense, but for some reason they then showed General Surovikin with a submachine gun on his hip on Channel One. Why did this need to be done and who makes such decisions? It is clear that this is the presidential administration and Ernst in this case. But this is a big defeat for propaganda in the propaganda war.