"I would expect more attacks"

Why will the strike on the Crimean bridge not affect the Russian military? Expert Kirill Mikhailov answers

On the night of July 17, a new blow was dealt to the Crimean bridge, as a result of which the road part was damaged. as a result of the attack died Traffic on the bridge was stopped, two people , the railway part of the bridge remained intact and continues its work. The Ukrainian authorities have not officially claimed responsibility for the attack, but sources claim that the bombing was a joint operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the SBU. Can the attack be considered successful and will it help Ukraine in its counteroffensive? Kholod asked a military expert, a former researcher of the Conflict Intelligence Team project, Kirill Mikhailov.

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How was the attack organized? There is a version about jet skis that acted as surface drones.

“It is too early to talk about how the attack was organized, but sources in the Ukrainian media say that it was organized by the SBU with the support of the Navy. I would not rule out the use of surface drones at all. Moreover, this can be a weak point in the defense of the bridge: air defense works more or less normally there (for example, recently there was information about the downing of Ukrainian S-200 missiles over the Crimean bridge).

Can the attack be considered successful?

— Yes, the result can be called quite successful for a considerable time. As far as I understand, road traffic has been interrupted. But unlike the previous attack, for which Ukraine has recently officially claimed responsibility , the railway track turned out to be intact: [for the Armed Forces] this is a problem, because most of the military cargo is still delivered by rail.

What are the consequences of this attack? Will the logistics of the Russian military suffer?

- Perhaps this will complicate the logistics, but not critically. The Russian army can make certain adjustments: for example, there will be more trains, it will be the railway tracks that will be used to transport personnel and light wheeled vehicles - now this is moving along the road bridge.

In order to seriously disrupt Russian logistics, it is still necessary to damage the railway track, as was the case last time, which may have had a positive effect on the Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson direction in the fall.

The Crimean Bridge is the only branch of the railway that is used for logistics: the transportation of any supplies, from ammunition to basic water and medicines. There are no other railway lines on the newly occupied territories of mainland Ukraine. Therefore, I would expect a repetition of the attacks, because [based on the logic of the SBU] the railway track needs to be damaged.