Who will lose their job because of AI?

Highlights from research on the future labor market

The international consulting company McKinsey has published a study of the labor market in the United States. According to her forecasts, due to automation and the introduction of artificial intelligence, the likelihood of women losing their jobs is 1.5 times higher than men. This is because women are more likely to work in low-wage industries, such as office work and customer service - the types of workers that are most easily replaced by artificial intelligence. “Cold” retells the main points from the study.

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A report from the McKinsey Global Institute found that nearly a third of U.S. work time could be automated by the end of the decade. Due to artificial intelligence, almost 12 million people will be unemployed by 2030. Moreover, the likelihood that women will have to look for new positions is 1.5 times higher than in the case of men.

The authors of the study suggest that artificial intelligence will be implemented among secretaries and office managers, as well as in customer support services. Jobs in these fields could decline by an estimated 3.7 million and 2 million jobs, respectively, by 2030, according to the forecast. Women are more likely to work in these areas.

Similar trends can already be seen: for example, during the pandemic, more women than men left their positions. It took three years for the number of women working in the United States to return to pre-recession levels. In addition, many women working in low-paid jobs have families, which makes some of them reluctant to take risks - hence, they do not return to study or try out a new profession.

However, there are areas where historically more men work (for example, construction) where there is a shortage of workers. The researchers point out that there may be more women working in these industries, which would also increase gender diversity in these fields.

Who else is close to losing their job because of artificial intelligence?

In addition to women, those at risk of losing their jobs include people who do not have higher education, blacks and ethnic Latinos - they are more likely to work in areas where the likelihood of introducing artificial intelligence is highest. Workers will likely need additional skills or training to move into new industries. The researchers also note that workers with lower wages are 10 to 14 times more likely to need to change occupations than workers with the highest wages.

The biggest job declines in the future are likely to be in office support, customer service and food service. Researchers estimate that 1.6 million jobs could disappear from the office industry, 830,000 retail sales jobs, 710,000 administrative assistant jobs, and another 630,000 cashier jobs. This work involves a high proportion of repetitive tasks, data collection and basic processing - all types of activities that artificial intelligence is capable of. Jobs will also fall in the manufacturing sector, which can be explained by the fact that the sector requires more highly skilled workers rather than ordinary ones.

What, besides artificial intelligence, can affect employment?

The introduction of artificial intelligence and automation plays an important role in the American labor market, but they are not the only factors that influence it. Other factors include federal investment in employment and rising incomes and educational attainment.

The largest job growth is expected in healthcare, where there were already 1.9 million open positions in April 2023. Researchers suggest that the number of vacancies in this area could rise to a total of 3.5 million. Another area where job growth is expected (by 23%) is STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) , in the transport industry the increase will be 9%.

One of the key areas where job openings are expected to grow is in nursing. McKinsey expects the two most in-demand jobs by the end of this decade to be nurses and home health aides, but people are leaving those jobs in droves. In order to prevent this, it is necessary to improve working conditions, provide workers with safety and career opportunities.

It looks like many people will have to change jobs. Has this happened before?

Yes. Researchers noticed that between 2019 and 2022, many people changed jobs or professions due to the pandemic. McKinsey counted about 8.6 million career changes, which is 50% more than in the previous three years. The researchers don't give exact numbers, but they note that many people left their previous jobs and took higher-paying jobs in other professions. Half of the 8.6 million came from lower-wage industries: food service, customer service and manufacturing. They also include secretaries and office managers.

Researchers predict that by 2030, there will be nearly 12 million more career changes in the United States, with 84% (nearly 10 million) of them in food service, customer support and sales, as well as office support and manufacturing jobs.

At the same time, researchers believe that workers whose positions can be replaced by artificial intelligence will still have a chance of finding a job. “Increasing demand and labor shortages have forced many employers to consider atypical candidates with potential and train them if they lack relevant experience,” McKinsey said.