Ukraine after blows of Kamikadze boats on Russian ships announced the ports of the Russian Federation "Dangers Zone"

This can violate the export trade of Russia

Ukraine per day struck two strokes with unmanned Kamikaze boats on Russian ships in the Black Sea: on the night of August 4, the Military large landing ship of the Olegori Gornyak received damage to the Novorossiysk raid, and on the night of August 5-the Citizens of the SIG in the Kerch region. In both cases, the ships, obviously, were the goal of the attack: the fact that hitting them is not an accident is clearly visible from the video from the drones published in Ukrainian channels. Both ships were damaged, but remained afloat.

Ukraine used such floating Kamikaze drones earlier, including for a blow to the Crimean bridge in July.

Immediately after the second attack, Ukraine officially announced "military danger for shipping in the area of ​​Russian ports <...> Anapa, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, Tuapse, Sochi and Tamani." This statement should be considered as an attempt to unofficial blockade of ports (despite the fact that formally the blockade itself, as it is understood by the London Declaration on the right of the 1909 naval war, was not announced). In the same way, after the abolition of the grain transaction, in July, the Russian Ministry of Defense was received, which declared dangerous water adjacent to the ports of Ukraine.

Each of the opponents reinforced his words: the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation attacked BPP Kamikadze and missiles of the port infrastructure and granaries in the Odessa region, including the mouth of the Danube, which was not declared a military danger zone; Ukrainian intelligence struck Russian ships in the north-eastern part of the Black Sea.

In such unnecessary blockade, it is important whether shipowners and insurers will believe (without the participation of the latter, modern trade shipping will be impossible) in the seriousness of the opponents. So far, they seem to believe in Russia more, which still has significant military capabilities in the Black Sea. Shipping in the area of ​​the Ukrainian sea border sharply decreased immediately after the statement of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Judging by the trackers of merchant ships, traffic to Russian ports has not changed even after the blows of Ukrainian drones on August 4–5. However, the new blows of the Kamikadze boats can jeopardize the marine trade of Russia, on which it more and more depends after the start of the war with Ukraine and the introduction of Western sanctions because of it.

How can the drones strikes affect Russia's trade?

It is difficult to judge this so far. Ukraine did not show that it was ready to miscalculate the merchant ships following the Russian ports and from them. So, the SIG tanker was obviously chosen as a goal because he had long served the contracts of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Earlier, the United States has imposed sanctions for participating in the supply of aviation fuel for the Russian group in Syria.

But if you imagine a hypothetical situation with the escalation of the outdated blockade, then Russia's trade can suffer significantly: the Black Sea, along with the Baltic, is one of the main ways for Russian export of oil and grain.

However, difficulties with the removal of raw materials can benefit Russia: first of all, interruptions in deliveries will lead to an increase in prices. Oil prices are already rising violently, and the discount that Russia is forced to provide customers due to the pricing ceiling introduced by the West for Russian fuel is reduced . Now Russian oil is sold on average higher than the West of the ceiling $ 60 per barrel. At the same time, Russia (along with Saudi Arabia) reduces production and exports to maintain further prices.

The government expects that by the end of the year it will again receive up to 11 billion dollars of oil overpromitations that can be directed to financing the war (for which it plans to change budget rules).

Can Russia effectively defend against attacks of sea drones?

It will not be easy. The attacks of the Kamikadze boats began last year, and, obviously, the RF Armed Forces did not figure out how to find these drones in advance-at the launch site or along the way through the open sea. The entire defense is based on the protection of objects: whether it is the ports (for example, the Sevastopol Bay, where several attacks have been repelled in recent months) or warships (two military reconnaissance ships were able to fight off the “Olegori miner”). Trademark will be more difficult: the only well -known way - tested both during the world wars and in our time (when attacking the pirates) - consists in organizing the convoys of the commercial fleet with the participation of warships. This will significantly complicate the conditions of transportation, if it does not make them impossible - if the insurers consider the risks too large.