Sanctions acrobatics

Professor of the University of Tafts Chris Miller writes in The Economist about why the strategy for reducing the risks of the West will eventually fail:

“The West abandoned the tough rhetoric“ disconnecting ”from the Chinese economy and switched to a policy of reducing risks and economic security for two reasons. Firstly, Hawks in Japan and America had to abandon radicalism in order not to lose the hesitating European allies who see a “systemic opponent” in China, but at the same time they want other countries to bear the main burden of holding Beijing. The “reduction in risks” does not sound so risky and should not fly into a penny. Secondly, the Biden administration hopes that the US pressure on China, which turned out to be for many years, made China more obedient. Given the economic problems of China, Joe Biden does not lose hope that Beijing will refuse economic confrontation.

There are three reasons why the low -cost policy of reducing risks will fail. Firstly, the China government is sure that he will be able to cope with Western restrictions. Secondly, transnational corporations are already making expensive efforts to transfer production from the territory of China, which leads to the establishment of the worst status quo, which is traditionally stated by the rhetoric of Western countries. And thirdly, Beijing makes his own efforts to reduce dependence on Western production technologies, while trying to make the West more dependent on Chinese products-on the simplest chips to electric vehicles. This will lead to a new round of technological and trade confrontation. ”