The cost of war in Ukraine. Online August 15

The Bell continues to report online on the economic impact of the war in Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022.

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20:48 Chief of Staff of NATO Secretary General Stian Jenssen, during a public discussion in Norway , admitted that Ukraine could join the alliance if it renounces some territories and this could be an option for ending the war. The final decision must be made by Kyiv, Jenssen added.

Advisor to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, criticized his proposal: “Exchange territory for a NATO umbrella? Strange. It’s like deliberately choosing to defeat democracy, encourage a global criminal, preserve the Russian regime, destroy international law and pass the war on to other generations.”

19:12 Authorities are thinking about returning to capital controls amid a sharp weakening of the ruble - Bloomberg

In Russia, the requirement for the mandatory sale of part of foreign currency earnings by local exporters may be returned. According to Bloomberg , the proposal was discussed at a meeting between the government and exporters on August 14 - before the Central Bank was supposed to announce emergency measures and increased the key rate from 8.5% immediately to 12%. Two people familiar with the talks say “no breakthrough” has been achieved and another meeting could take place later this week.

Mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings, restrictions on money transfers abroad and other measures taken under sanctions helped stop the fall of the ruble after the start of the war, Bloomberg recalls. Without additional measures, the strengthening of the Russian currency may take several months, says Renaissance Capital economist Sofya Donets.

Since most of the Central Bank's reserves have already been frozen due to sanctions, politicians will be reluctant to resort to direct interventions in the foreign exchange market, the publication notes. Restrictions on capital movements will also harm the nascent supply chains that Russia is trying to build to circumvent sanctions, says Bloomberg economist Alexander Isakov.

17:58 The Insider and Bellingcat publications ( recognized in Russia as foreign agents and undesirable organizations ) published an investigation into a series of poisonings of journalists and activists who left Russia in 2022. Among the victims are Novaya Gazeta and Meduza* journalist Elena Kostyuchenko, head of the Free Russia Foundation Natalia Arno and Ekho Moskvy journalist Irina Babloyan. We are publishing the main points from the investigation.

14:56 The Carlsberg brewery, whose assets were nationalized in Russia, raised its forecast for operating profit growth this year to 4-7% from minus 2 to plus 5% and announced a buyback of $146 million. The company's quotes increased by 5%.

Carlsberg writes about the loss of market share in Russia and growth in Asia, but nationalization is most likely not taken into account in the semi-annual report. The full version of the document will appear tomorrow.

13:23 The Ministry of Finance published the average price of Urals oil for the month by August 14: $70.33 per barrel. North Sea Dated oil, which is the maximum tax discount, was priced at $84.23.

13:15 The Central Bank supplemented the release on the rate increase, adding a signal about a possible increase. This did not affect the course.

“The Bank of Russia will make further decisions on the key rate based on the extent to which the actual and expected dynamics of inflation relative to the target, the process of structural restructuring of the economy, as well as risks from internal and external conditions and the reaction of financial markets to them will be able to further increase the risk inflation deviation upwards from the target near 4% in 2024. And if pro-inflationary risks increase, an additional increase in the key rate is possible,” the Bank of Russia said.

11:39 The Central Bank immediately raised the key rate to 12%, but the ruble did not strengthen: the dollar is trading at 98 rubles after 96 in the morning.

Separately, new data from the Central Bank confirmed that the growth of export payments in rubles is combined with a deficit in the foreign trade balance in foreign currency. Analysts called this one of the factors for the weakening of the ruble.

The overall foreign trade surplus in June was positive - $4.941 billion (exports - $36.742 billion, imports - $31.800 billion). But 40.2% of exports and 30.3% of imports were paid for in rubles, that is, a deficit of $174 million was formed in the currency. However, it arose due to “friendly” currencies, Interfax notes.

The main thing for the night and morning:

In anticipation of the Central Bank's decision on the rate, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange fell below 93 rubles in the first minute of trading, but quickly recovered to 96 rubles after highs above 101 rubles the day before. The euro and yuan curves behaved in a similar way.
This year, the Russian budget has already received 54 billion rubles in “voluntary” contributions for the sale of Russian businesses by foreign companies.
Telecom operators and the military seem to have found a compromise on spectrum sharing. The security forces will have a conditional switch, and they will be able to turn off civilian networks during a state of emergency through a special operator.
Tuesday, August 15, has been declared a day of mourning in Dagestan. The death toll from the gas station explosion in Makhachkala has reached 27.
According to the Ukrainian side, 16 out of 28 missiles launched across the country that night were shot down. Attacks on Zaporozhye, Lutsk and Lvov were confirmed.
The People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut two key rates after the release of data on sluggish economic growth, especially in retail sales and industrial production. The offshore yuan fell 0.3% against the dollar.
Tesla has reduced the minimum price of the less popular models S and X by $10 thousand by reducing battery capacity and acceleration dynamics for the US and Canadian markets. Meanwhile, in China, the price of the main Model Y has been reduced by 14 thousand yuan or $1900: Elon Musk continues the price war in the main electric vehicle market.