One hundred steps forward

The Ukrainian counterattack develops extremely slowly. Novyevropa, together with experts, understands whether the Armed Forces will be able to achieve success at the front in the near future

Three defense lines

The Washington Post reports with reference to its sources that Ukraine will not be able to achieve a key goal of the offensive in the foreseeable future.

“According to the assessment of American intelligence, because of minefields, Ukrainian forces will not be able to get to Melitopol, a vital transit node this year, cutting a land corridor from Russia to Crimea,” the newspaper writes. - This was reported by people familiar with the secret forecast. A gloomy assessment is based on the successful experience of Russia in protecting the occupied territory using minefields and defense lines. Probably, the situation can prove to the emergence of questions in Kyiv and Western capitals about why a counterattack using Western weapons and military equipment, which cost tens of billions of dollars, has not achieved its goals. ”

The Washington Post writes that, according to US officials, the Ukrainian forces that are advancing to Melitopol from 80 kilometers of the village of Worker, stop a few kilometers from the city.

“Russia has three main defensive lines there, and after them, fortified cities,” Military analyst Rob Lee said The Washington Post. “The question is not only whether Ukraine can break through one or two of them, but also whether they can break through all three lines and have enough strength to achieve something more significant, for example, taking a Tokmak or something else.”

Due to the forecast of American intelligence, the opinions of American politicians were divided. Several congressmen reported that some Republicans opposed the allocation of more than $ 20 billion promised by Joe Bayden for more than $ 20 billion. In turn, other public opinion leaders reproached the US presidential administration that Ukraine has not yet received more powerful weapons.

The Washington Post notes that the publicity of public exploration is consistent with the secret forecast of the American authorities of February 2023. It stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the counterattack “did not reach” the goal set by Ukraine, and by August to free Melitopol or Mariupol by August to destroy the land corridor in the Crimea.

Blitzkriga will not work

“Even before the start of the Ukrainian offensive, it was clear that no blitzkrieg would work out and that getting significant results was a difficult task and will require considerable time,” says Sergey Migdal, a military expert, a former employee of the special services and police of Israel. - Ukrainians today are trying to do what contradicts the basics of military science: to step on the enemy, approximately equal in number, firepower and the number of equipment, as well as a total advantage in aviation. Under such conditions, to break through the front and conquer significant territories is a difficult task. In order for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to quickly achieve serious successes, the United States should transfer 1 thousand tanks to Kyiv, the same number of armored vehicles and self -propelled artillery of the M109 SAU, as well as engineering machinery, etc. There are thousands of units of such equipment in Nevada at storage bases. In total, the United States has 6.5 thousand “Abrams”. And in practice, 31 tank was promised, which is not clear when it still reaches Ukraine. ”

According to Sergey Migdal, the European Union countries have about 2.2 thousand tanks today. Since no one plans to fight in Europe, and the Russian army firmly stuck in Ukraine, it is quite possible to transfer half of these tanks to Kyiv. But the NATO generals, thinking in the Self-DeeterRnce paradigm (self-adherence), intimidated themselves and are afraid to annoy the Kremlin.

The replacement of the aircraft, the deliveries of which are delayed, could be high -precision missiles that hit hundreds of kilometers (for example, ATACMS with a distance of up to 300 km).

Before the supply of Ukraine, Storm Shadow’s cruise missiles, it was believed that this, too, can somehow be especially angry with the Kremlin.

It is possible that the Western countries also have strategic political reasons not to wish for the quick victory of Ukraine: for example, the fear of the collapse of Russia into several unstable states with atomic bombs. In addition, it is impossible to predict the Kremlin’s reaction to a serious military defeat. No one can guarantee that Putin and his environment will not dare to use weapons of mass destruction.

Waiting for a breakthrough

“The situation with counterattack has not changed noticeably,” remarks “Novy-Europe” military analyst at the FBK Jan Matveev. - The Armed Forces continue to strike the rear of the Russian army and attack its positions. In two main areas - worker and Staromayora - there are local attacks. Two goals: to exhaust the defenders and try to advance in order to improve their positions. While we still see preparatory battles. This does not mean that they are some simple or easy, just their role is to prepare the situation for a full breakthrough of the front. The Armed Forces are still necessary to carry out this breakthrough, but so far they are not ready to put many soldiers and equipment into it at the same time. ”

“Today we see a creeping offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” a military expert, a colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in reserve, Roman Svitan, tells the “Novo-Europe”. - Ukraine is moving on the Southern Front to the Azov coast from the settlements of nuts and yielding in small steps, minimizing the loss of personnel. Every day the front is pushed by 200-300-500 meters, which eventually develops in kilometers.

This movement can be accelerated only with either large human casualties, or when entering new types of weapons that have not yet been provided by Western allies. ”

According to Roman Svitan, the main task of the Armed Forces today is not the storm of cities and villages, but the destruction of the enemy army. So, to the outskirts of Worker, Ukrainian troops reached, according to our interlocutor, two weeks ago. However, it was possible to advance to the center of the village only to today. According to some reports, the settlement has already been completely left by the Russian troops.

“Even the autumn thaw,” says Roman Svitan, will not interfere with the offensive on the Zaporizhzhya front. - After all, not far from the Sea of ​​Azov, sandy soil. The water in it does not linger and the technique does not stick as much as in black soil, for example, the Donetsk region. ”

Roman Svitan is convinced that Western partners will not stop supplying weapons even in a situation if the APU attack will take place very slowly. After all, fundamental decisions on this issue have already been made.

Fireworker on Independence Day

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine are intercepting the initiative before our eyes. At the moment, they are slowly giving up Russian defense, ”explains Sergey Migdal. - With the help of a competent counter -battery struggle and high -precision weapons, Russian artillery and personnel are destroyed. Given the shortage of Russia, fresh soldiers, defenders have to stay in the trenches without rotation for months. Physical and mental fatigue accumulates. At the same time, the Armed Forces, rationally using reserves, moves its fighters with advanced rest. All these circumstances can lead to a deep breakthrough on some of the sections of the front of the Russian defense. If you can do this, the Armed Forces will quickly transfer the reserves and put them into battle. Then the collapse of the entire defense may occur. ”

According to the Israeli expert, before the start of the autumn ribbon, the Ukrainian side has still time - until mid -October. However, Sergey Migdal is waiting for significant events at the front and in the rear in the near future. So, according to our interlocutor, by the Independence Day of Ukraine, Kyiv can accumulate a large number of long -range combat UAVs and sea drones, which will be used in various regions of Russia. One of the tasks of such a fireworks may be the complete cessation of the work of Moscow airports. Another probable goal of the attack is Black Sea ports. The use of drones may be accompanied by a serious ground offensive.

In the future, according to Sergei Migdal, the confrontation at the front can develop according to the scenario of the Iranian-Iraq conflict: when both sides first exchanged blows, and then moved to a positional war with massive shelling of cities.

“It is difficult to give forecasts, because the situation similar to the current one can reach for a very long time,” says Jan Matveev. - And when a breakthrough occurs - on the contrary, everything will accelerate in an unpredictable way. I think that the Armed Forces will definitely try to hold another powerful attack until the end of September for the sake of breaking through the defense line of the Russian units. Given the general fatigue and loss of the Putin's units, it may well be successful. Moreover, the significant minefields of the Armed Forces have already been overcome, and it is not a fact that the same will be further. ”