Translated material
Overcoming fixation
An exhibition of bumped Russian equipment in Kyiv. Photo: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
In the American press, direct hints of the "freezing" of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the actual front line according to the "Korean" model appear again. In exchange for consent with the loss of territories, albeit not legally issued, Ukraine is proposed membership in NATO or the EU.
It is clear why such articles are published right now. In the United States, the presidential campaign is already in full swing, and the administration of Joe Biden would very much like to end the war before the election of 2024 - the termination of hostilities in Ukraine will increase the chances of the current president for the re -election. Initially, the White House was calculated (or declared that they were counting) for the victory of Ukraine during the current Ukrainian counterattack, which began in June. Although in fact there was no objective reason to believe that the Russian army will be so seriously defeated during the counterattack that it would be forced to leave all the occupied Ukrainian territories. The Army of the aggressor retained its advantage in the number of tanks, artillery attitudes of various types and MLRS, multiple superiority in the number of shells used, absolute superiority in long -range missiles, multiple - in the number of aircraft and almost absolute - in their quality, as well as solid quantitative superiority in drunken drones.
The advantage of Ukraine was the use of a more accurate Western artillery weapons and MLRS and several dozen modern Western tanks that are superior in their combat qualities of Russian samples (60 "Leopards 2" and either 14, or 28 "Chellengers"). Plus, the Ukrainian army retains superiority in the level of combat training and motivation. However, to realize this superiority, a sufficient number of modern weapons are necessary.
In addition, the Russian army had at its disposal for more than six months in order to prepare for the Ukrainian counterattack, which was quite predictably expected to be south. During this time, powerful fortified positions were erected here, and the density of mining was generally record in the history of wars. It is extremely difficult to break out such a defense without at least local superiority in the air, without sufficient covering the advancing air defense systems, with a deficiency of ammunition and mine clearance.
The effect of American Himars was largely exhausted by the end of 2022, when the Russian army began to take its warehouses and command posts beyond their action. And ATACMS Ukraine has not yet received long -range missiles. Russian missile strikes in Ukrainian cities, including vital infrastructure objects, force Ukrainians to throw more air defense systems on their cover, reducing the possibilities for covering troops from the air. And the general lack of air defense systems, especially the far and medium radius of action, also affects.
Several dozens of modern tanks do not make the weather, especially since the Ukrainian generals considered it necessary to introduce from 300 to 500 modern tanks for the success of counterattacks, and have still received no more than 88. In addition, tanks are important primarily at the success stage when the breakthrough has already been carried out. But the Ukrainian counterattack still did not come to this stage.
It is not surprising that on the eve of the counterattack, the Ukrainian military leaders predicted that it would be long and difficult and would not lead to quick successes. Both Ukrainians and the Western public and politicians, they asked not to have hopes for the soon end of the war. Now, until the end of the Ukrainian counterattack is a little time left. According to the weather conditions, it will not be able to last longer than the middle or end of October. For the remaining time, taking into account the forces and means available to the Russian army, the maximum that you can hope for, this is the release of Melitopol, which would allow the land corridor to cut into the Crimea. However, this success will not be crucial, because the Ukrainian army will be able to begin the next offensive no earlier than mid -May next year. And by that time, the invading will have time to build new fortified lines and, if such a need arises, they will build a railway and highway bypassing Melitopol.
Now all hopes are only on the success of the next Ukrainian offensive in 2024. To do this, the Armed Forces of Ukraine must receive at least 40-50 F-16 fighters or other modern aircraft, long-range missiles (Atacms, Taurus, Storm Shadow, Scalp), a sufficient amount of air defense and SAMP/T, mine clearance and, perhaps, the most important thing, shells. If all these conditions are fulfilled, real chances of great success will appear.
It seems that the American military and politicians are already beginning to prepare for the Ukrainian offensive of 2024. In particular, in the American press there was information that the Pentagon expects to increase the production of ammunition in winter and fully satisfy Ukraine's requests in this regard. And finally, the question of the supply of the F-16, which in the amount of 61 promised to transfer to Ukraine, the Netherlands and Denmark, and the first 6 aircraft should arrive before the end of 2023,
However, apparently, part of the Biden administration is skeptical of the prospect of Ukrainian victory. In the publications of the American press, the former schizophrenic theses are given that neither the defeat of Ukraine or the defeat of Russia cannot be allowed. Hence the idea of a long ceasefire approximately on the existing front line in exchange for Ukraine’s entry into NATO. But for Kyiv, such a proposal is absolutely unacceptable. The Ukrainian leadership will never agree to alienate an indefinite period of 20 percent of the country's territory. If Ukraine under such conditions will be accepted into the alliance, NATO guarantees will cost much less than now. The aggressor, which seized the fifth of the sovereign state, will not only not be punished for aggression, but will be rewarded. Ukraine will still have to increase its weapons and, perhaps, secretly implement a nuclear program.
Comparison with divided Germany and divided Korea in this case is greatly lame. One nation was divided there - the Germans on the eastern and western, Koreans in the northern and southern. The former metropolis and its former possession will be divided here. Putin will really assume that this is a temporary separation of one people - after all, he does not consider Ukrainians for the people. And he will cite Germany as an example, which nevertheless united in a few decades. The “Korean version” will completely suit Putin in the current conditions, but in no case will arrange Ukraine, which the president has already stated directly.
In order to strengthen pressure on Ukrainian society in the direction of reaching a compromise with Russia, the American press was published in the assessment of the losses of the parties in the war. According to American intelligence on August 18, Russian losses amount to 120,000 killed and from 170,000 to 180,000 wounded, Ukrainian - 70,000 killed and from 100,000 to 120,000 wounded. If the ratio of losses killed and wounded were really close to 1.5: 1, for Ukraine it would be a disaster, given the four -fold inequality of human resources. Fortunately, there is reason to believe that the ratio of losses is much more favorable for the Ukrainian side. According to the Oryx website, the ratio of confirmed losses of the armored vehicles of the ground forces on the evening of August 20 was 2.8: 1 in favor of Ukraine. I assume that due to a number of objective difficulties from the Ukrainian side in terms of video confirmation of Russian losses, the real ratio of losses killed and wounded can be 3.5-4: 1. This coefficient should be close to the ratio of the total losses of the parties killed and wounded, and from the Ukrainian side there are 3 wounded on 1 killed, and only 2 on the Russian side. If we take the current assessment of Russian losses by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of 257,470, then with a coefficient of 2.8 the number of killed Ukrainian soldiers can be estimated at 69,000, which almost coincides with the assessment of the American Intelligence, and with a coefficient of 3.5 - at 55,200. Perhaps the American assessment more or less accurately determines Ukrainian losses killed. But it underestimates real Russian losses killed more than doubled. So far, human resources of Ukraine are exhausted in the same proportion as human resources.