Hopes may not be justified

Political scientist Alexei Makarkin writes about the possible reasons for the economic crisis in China in the near future:

“Firstly, China with its powerful potential in any case will remain one of the leading world players. The question is whether the ideas about the future of the bipolar structure of the world with two main centers of influence - the USA and China are overstated. The latest economic data is more indicated in favor of overstation.

Secondly, there is a contradiction between political and economic logic. The first encourages the country to compete hard with the United States, despite the risks for Chinese companies, accustomed to a convenient life in the global world. The second is connected with the need for compromises and self -restraint. Xi Jinping, who had issued his dominance in the Chinese elite last year, adheres to political logic more likely (including in the Taiwanese issue). The question is how much he will look at the economy.

Thirdly, the nature of the relationship between the state and business. Since the 1990s, idyllic stories have been popular about how the capitalists have been integrated into “Red China”, getting wide opportunities for the development of their business. <...> Now in this scheme there is an unbalancing - business ambitions are objectively growing, and the state is inclined to take measures to limit them, including preventive ones.

Fourth, the level of openness of the country and, therefore, the reliability of the incoming data. The Chinese authorities have just decided not to publish data on unemployment among young people. <...> It is significant that the decision was made after youth unemployment reached record values ​​in June, exceeding 21%. And FT said that China authorities forbid economists publicly discuss negative trends in the country's economy.

Fifth, the mood of youth. They were largely determined by the self -affirmation of the country in the world arena due to rapid economic growth - respectively, even in westernized youth, nationalism is common. The question is what will happen now, when unemployment is growing and not all expectations are justified. ”