Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plane was probably shot down by air defense - the founder of the Conflict Intelligence Team, Ruslan Leviev, is inclined to this conclusion after analyzing eyewitness videos. In the daily report from the fronts, which Leviev conducts on Michael Naki’s YouTube channel, the expert voiced three arguments confirming the version about air defense.
First, in one of the videos of a falling plane, he discovered a contrail - a small white cloud. “We see that the plane is falling out of control. Judging by the outlines that exist, one wing and tail section are clearly broken off,” says Leviev. “...The contrail is located closer to the eyewitness [than the downward plane, which is located further away]. This suggests that this is precisely a contrail from air defense.”
Another reason why Leviev is inclined to the air defense version is eyewitness accounts of the number of explosion sounds. According to an eyewitness, “it banged twice” while the plane was still flying down. In another recording, taken after the plane crashed, an eyewitness says that he was on the street and heard three “pops.”
In this case, only two versions remain, Leviev believes: an explosion on the plane itself or an air defense shoot down. “Due to a technical malfunction, planes don’t fall apart like this, the wing and tail don’t fall off,” says Leviev. “If it was a bomb, eyewitnesses would only have heard one explosion.” Eyewitnesses can hear several explosions just if they are relatively close to the air defense system: the first explosion is a missile launch, the second explosion is when an anti-aircraft guided missile overcomes supersonic sound, the third is the direct explosion of a missile near an aircraft. “If it was a bomb, where two or three explosions were heard, I have no explanation,” the expert concludes.
In addition, in freeze frames from eyewitness records, holes are visible on some parts of the aircraft, which in shape and location resemble traces of the operation of a damaging anti-aircraft guided missile, Leviev believes.
Leviev rejects the version about the use of a man-portable anti-aircraft missile system (MANPADS), which could theoretically be used by Ukrainian saboteurs on Russian territory, due to information about the altitude of the plane at which it was shot down. According to Flightradar, the last stage of the plane’s normal flight was at an altitude of 8.5 km - a height that MANPADS are not enough to reach.
Leviev also recalls that not far from the crash site in the Tver region there is the Khotilovo airbase, where units of the 6th Air Force and Air Defense Army are located . He suggests that there are also S-300 installations there, which could have shot down the plane.
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