Volan de Card

Airpower, air defense missile, technical problems - and other versions of the murder of Prigozhin, who are not in a hurry to voice the Russian security forces

A business jet with the RA-02795 onboard number, on which Evgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner PMCs flew from Moscow to St. Petersburg, crashed in the Tver region. The Flightradar24 service tracking flights of aircraft by transponder signals recorded the Embraer Legacy 600 flight with the RA-02795 registration number from 17:59 to 18:11 Moscow time. In the area of ​​the village of Shernevo, Transponder stopped transmitting a signal.

These are the versions of the incident were expressed by the experts interviewed by the New Evrop.

Mark Solonin

publicist, former aviation engineer-designer

“The plane fell“ stone ”. Damage from the explosion of a small charge of the explosive inside the aircraft or from the defeat of the anti -aircraft rocket outside the outside of the existing scale and quality. This may equally be the result of both the explosion from the inside, and the defeat of a serious anti -aircraft missile. The version of the MANPADS is completely removed by FLIGHTRADAR information, at which the plane flew at an altitude of 8.5–9 km. If you shot down from the ground, then something serious, such as a “beech”. Data from the aircraft stopped arriving after a decrease/fall to 6 km - that is, severe damage was cut down by power. ”

Roman Svitan

instructor pilot, Armed Forces Colonel in reserve

“Given all circumstances, we consider two main versions - an explosion on board or external impact. About 50 kilometers from the disaster is located part of the air defense. So in the case of receiving the corresponding order, there was someone to shoot down. In the explosion of a serious air defense missile, the plane and all devices would be stitched by thousands of the same damaging elements. It is impossible to hide their traces. Blood from the inside can cause an instant stop of many aircraft systems. On the frames from the scene, it is clear that the plane completely lost control. Sudden changes in height - before the fall, the board sharply gained and lost height - they may talk about the crew attempts to “catch” the management of the machine. Also, control over damaged aircraft could try to restore autopilot. Conclusions can be drawn after investigative examinations.

The Russian side will not be able to completely hide the results of the investigation. Indeed, the commission, which will include dozens, and possibly hundreds of specialists, will take part in the representative of the manufacturer. So you will have to publish at least the general causes of the disaster, which include the place and nature of the explosion.

I think that soon you can hear a lot of information stuffing. For example, that the Wagnerians flew with weapons and explosives and could themselves cause a disaster.

The most exotic hypotheses are possible. Until the fact that Prigozhin and his subordinates were killed in another place, and the plane crash is adjusted to hide all traces. Many have already written that everything that happened is a hoax necessary for Prigozhin to calmly change his appearance and leave for Africa. ”

Sergey Migdal

former employee of the special services and police of Israel

“If we consider versions of external influence or explosion inside the aircraft, then I am inclined to the second option. Judging by the fact that during the explosion the tail of the plane fell off the plane, it was there that the explosive device was hidden. Usually in such an aircraft there is a luggage compartment from behind. Since the case takes place on the home field of the Russian special services, it would not be difficult for them to mine a similar aircraft for them. It is clear that the FSB has the opportunity to access all the flying devices in Russia. One kilogram of the correctly placed explosives would be enough.

Less realistic hypotheses are the destruction of the aircraft missiles of a terrestrial air defense system or “air - air” missile from the aircraft. The rocket released by the fighter, as a rule, is shown to the heat of engines located in the tail of the aircraft. The crew would have managed to give a distress signal.

If the plane shot down air defense or fighter, Western intelligence will be very likely to know about it. So far, only the Financial Times newspaper, citing an unnamed source, wrote that the aircraft was destroyed by the Russian Air Defense missile.

Surprising Prigogine's carelessness. If he had a security consultant, and not Valery Chekalov, he would have advised never to follow the preliminary plans.

Instead of flying, at the last moment I would have changed transport and, for example, would go by train. Apparently, using such security schemes, Prigozhin prevented the feeling of its own steepness.

From different methods of murder in the case of Prigogine, one of the most indicative, noisy and dangerous for strangers was chosen. It was lucky that the plane did not fall to the settlement, where there would be many victims. At the same time, crew and stewardess members died. Such behavior resembles loud attempts made by the Sicilian mafia. For all, this is a lesson in absolute impunity.

At the same time, the option with an internal explosion opens up for the authorities the opportunity to “translate the arrows”. The pro -Russian media and bloggers have already begun to discuss that Prigozhin was killed by order of the head of Ukrainian military intelligence Budanov, by order of the CIA or ISIS.

It is clear to me that Prigozhin was not going to spend the rest of his life in a tent camp in Belarus or in a secluded village in Africa surrounded by armed thugs. Recently, he had felt like the top of fate, a player at a large table, a fighter for justice for the Russian people.

During the “march of justice”, the authorities managed to force Prigozhin to stop. According to rumors, the FSB detained his loved ones and even children. At the same time, the power itself provoked the head of the PMC “Wagner” to the rebellion. I have information that on the eve of the rebellion began, the FSB special forces tried to detain Evgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin before a business meeting in St. Petersburg at one of the hotels belonging to the head of PMCs. However, Prigozhin had two minibuses armed with grenade launchers and machine guns of Wagnerian special forces. Utkin even took out a combat grenade and pulled out a check. As a result, Prigozhin’s detention was canceled. After that, the businessman went to the location of his strength and began the rebellion.

Representatives of the aircraft manufacturer are obliged to participate in the work committee to investigate the incident. Since the ship was made in Brazil, there is not even an excuse to refuse Embraer on the basis that it belongs to states not friendly to Russia.

It must be borne in mind that this disaster throws a shadow to the entire sphere of flights over Russia. If the planes in the sky explode for unknown reasons, maybe it is better to fly to such a country. A similar situation happened in Iran, where the air defense was shot down by a civil liner. ”

David Sharp

Israeli military expert

“Let's look at all hypotheses. The first is the blow of Russian air defense. Only one video shows something remotely reminiscent of a trace of the rocket. Also on the wreckage that we observe in the photo and video, there are practically no numerous holes from the striking elements of missiles of serious air defense systems that could get the plane at such a height. Usually, when such missiles hit the entire body of the aircraft and the bodies of the people located in it are stitched with small fragments of a round or rectangular shape. So far, I have not seen such personnel.

If I had the task of eliminating the prominent leader, without attracting attention, I would certainly prefer not to use the air defense, the launch and flight of the rockets of which could well get to the cameras of mobile phones of random eyewitnesses.

It is important to know that, as far as we know, the pilots did not give the SOS signal. We can conclude that they did not have a technical or physical ability to do this. Perhaps explosive depressurization led to the loss of consciousness of the entire crew.

Theoretically, it is necessary to consider the version with the technical problem of the aircraft.

You can imagine that his tail fell off on his fly. However, given the identity of the deceased head of the Wagner PMC Evgeny Prigozhin, this idea seems extremely unlikely.

I must say that Embraer business jets are considered very reliable machines. There is practically no disaster with them.

There may be many organizers of such a murder. Prigozhin had enough enemies. Six months ago, I would call the Ukrainian trace a priority. But now it is clear that the main versions should be considered the destruction of Prigozhin by order from the very top or the murder organized by one of the enemies, of which the head of the PMC Wagner was enough. He was hated by both Russian pilots and the top of the Ministry of Defense. The Russian special services had many opportunities to comply with such an order.

After an unsuccessful rebellion, many suggested that the vengeful Putin would not forgive the Prigiron of an open rebellion. I also believed that his life is at risk. But after meeting with the head of state and official forgiveness, he thought that the threat had decreased a little. If the elimination of Prigogine was authorized in the Kremlin, then this can be called oriental medieval insidiousness.

If we imagine that the Russian government is not behind this disaster, then we can assume that the investigation will be as open as possible. At the same time, all fragments of a crashed aircraft will be shown to society. ”