Knocked down really

At the crash site. Photo: Investigative Committee

After the catastrophe of Prigozhinsky business jet, versions of a grandiose staging immediately appeared: they say, in fact, Prigozhin is alive and well, only changed his passport and, possibly, appearance. But not such a person was Evgeny Viktorovich to lead an underground life under a strange name as a modest restaurateur somewhere in the Russian province or, say, in Turkey. Prigozhin wanted to be a great commander, like Napoleon, and a great businessman, longed to be in sight. Publishing almost daily videos with his own person on the battlefield, he simply reveled in glory.

At the same time, the owner of the PMC "Wagner", of course, was not a coward. Prigozhin repeatedly visited the front line, unlike many Russian generals, and really risked his life. For him, death on the battlefield or as a result of an attempt was still better than some kind of underground vegetation. In this regard, Evgeny Viktorovich was like Hitler. It was better for this to commit suicide in the Bunker of the Reich Chancellery than to try to hide by changing the name and appearance, somewhere in Latin America, Africa or even in Antarctica, where some authors of sensational books about his miraculous salvation are placed. Here Putin is another person, in a hopeless situation he will do everything to escape somewhere and stay alive.

There is no doubt not only that Prigozhin is dead, but also the fact that he was killed on the direct order of Putin. It was an indicative revenge for the humiliation that Putin experienced during the days of the rebellion and in the first days after. Together with Prigozhin, two more people who had the most directly related to going to Moscow - Dmitry Utkin, aka Wagner, the founder and commander of the PMC of the same name, who planned and personally headed this campaign, and Valery Chekalov, the head of the security service and logistics of Vagner, who ensured the “march of justice” ammunition, food, fuel, combat equipment and combat equipment and combat equipment and combat equipment and combat equipment and combat equipment and combat equipment and combat equipment, combat equipment and combat equipment and combat equipment, combat equipment and combat equipment, combat equipment and combat equipment, combat equipment and combat equipment. transport.

Putin, acting according to the laws of the mafia, decided to liquidate Prigozhin, decided one of his tasks - he again sowed fear among Russian elites and bureaucracy of all levels, which was seriously weakened as a result of Prigozhinsky rebellion. However, the rest could not resolve with the death of Prigozhin. There was a memory of Putin's confusion during the days of the rebellion and the complete paralysis of the vertical of power. And there is no reason to believe that in the case of a new military uprising, something from Putin and the power vertical will go differently. That's just the rebels will know that no negotiations with Putin are impossible, and therefore will immediately strive to send the Bunker Grandfather to the Prigozhin headquarters.

As for the method of killing Prigozhin, there are two versions: either an explosion of a bomb on board, or the impact of a rocket flew from the outside. At the same time, the version with the rocket, in turn, is divided into two: it could be a missile of the air -air -air air defense missile or a missile of the air -air -air fighter (in the first hours after the crash in the telegram channel "VCK -OGPU" there was information that the Su -35 fighter with two missiles "air" "air" took place before the catastrophe from the airfield. P-27). It is difficult to believe in the version of the explosion on board. Prigozhin knew very well that he could be killed, and probably carefully checked not only his own food and drinks, but also the aircraft on which he flew to exclude the possibility of sabotage.

Prigozhin did not trust Putin even after a formal reconciliation after the rebellion and closing of the criminal case. But the owner of Wagner mistakenly believed that he was still needed with his PMC - both for operations in Africa and in order to scare Poland and the Baltic countries from the territory of Belarus. Therefore, he believed that he had in stock for another six months or a year (it turned out - exactly two months). And he had nothing to suggest that his civilian aircraft could be knocked down by a rocket in the very center of Russia. And if he even assumed, then what could he do? Putin, however, decided that the problems that, after eliminating Prigozhin, will inevitably arise with the Wagnerians in Africa is nothing in comparison with the danger that Putin is personally for him personally.

It is very significant that in the first messages of the Reuters agency, citing two unnamed American officials, it was said that Prigogine was most likely shot down by the Earth - Air missile. But after a few hours, the Pentagon representative hastened to assure that, according to American intelligence, the version with a rocket plane was excluded. The bomb version on board at least purely theoretically allows us to admit that Prigozhin fell victim to some conflicts between the Wagnerians, which means that Putin’s fault in his death is definitely not proven. But if the president gave the order to knock down a civilian aircraft between Moscow and St. Petersburg, then Russia should be perceived as a mafia state, inside which gang-on showdowns are about to begin.

It is interesting that the next morning, after the crash of Jet, Vladimir Soloviev cited the version with the bomb as the most likely and accused Ukrainians of attempted Prigozhin. However, soon the Kremlin propagandists received new manuals and completely stopped talking about the bomb. Nobody would have believed in the "Ukrainian trace", and the suspicions of Putin would only intensify. And now in the Kremlin they decided to adhere to the version of the technical reason for the disaster, despite the fact that some pictures have signs of entering the side of the rocket. The Western Interregional Investigation Department of the Investigative Committee on Transport has already reported that there is no reason for the terrorist attack version. Undoubtedly, now the best aviation security experts in cooperation with the Putin administration urgently invent a more or less plausible technical reason for the Prigozhinsky side disaster. In which, however, no one will believe anyway.

Theoretically, the Wagnerians, having learned about the death of Prigozhin, Utkin and Chekalov, could arrange a second trip to Moscow for revenge. But almost such a threat was not. After the rebellion, the Wagnerians lost heavy weapons and air defense systems. Therefore, on the way to Moscow, their columns would be easily defeated from the air. Of course, if there were some charismatic and decisive leader, enjoying the unconditional authority, he could still lead the Wagnerians to Moscow, hoping to attract part of the Russian army to his side. But such leaders were only Prigozhin and Utkin. Perhaps General Surovikin in the Kremlin was also considered as a potential leader of the rebels. Apparently, after the resignation, he remains under house arrest.

Now the Kremlin needs to do something with the Wagner PMC, especially in Africa. Most Wagnerians are planned to be included in the PMC acting under the auspices of the Ministry of Defense. However, these PMCs in combat effectiveness, and in terms of payment, are significantly inferior to Wagner, so personnel losses are inevitable. And in Africa, the activities of the Wagnerians and their financing largely depended on Prigozhin’s personal connections. To replace them, it will take months, if not years. Therefore, we can assume that Russia's influence on Africa countries will weaken in the near future. In particular, almost to zero, the chances of the fact that the Wagnerians would be thrown into Niger to help the military junta in the event of the expected military intervention of the Ekovas countries fell almost to zero.