August saw the smallest change in the front line since the start of the war in Ukraine

The territory that Ukrainian and Russian troops were able to occupy in August was the smallest since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to an analysis by The New York Times based on data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The slowdown of the offensive is associated with the risk for Ukraine of facing a reduction in Western assistance, the publication recalls.

Details . Both sides had big plans for this year: Russia wanted to seize the rest of the Donbass, and Ukraine tried to break the so-called land bridge to Crimea with an attack in the south. Both operations did not go according to plan, and the front line, after months of grueling fighting and heavy casualties, remained virtually unchanged.

• If we add up all the achievements since the beginning of 2023, Ukraine was able to gain control over approximately 370 sq km of territory, and Russia - 850 sq km, the newspaper calculated. Thus, Russian troops were able to capture approximately 480 sq km more territory. But this is not a very significant advantage, the newspaper notes: it is smaller than the territory of Kyiv or New York.
• Any advance this year was accompanied by heavy fighting. Both sides faced the same problems, they fought for positions on which the enemy had been building defensive structures for months and even years. At the same time, military personnel without much experience and sufficient training were actively involved in the battles.

Context . For Ukraine, slowing down the counteroffensive is associated with the risk of losing some of the support of the West. Back in April, The New York Times wrote that without a decisive victory for Kiev during the counteroffensive, allied assistance could weaken.

• At the same time, for Russia, holding onto already captured territories without new acquisitions seems to have become a comfortable strategy, Marina Miron, a researcher in military studies at King's College London, told the newspaper. “[Russia’s] whole strategy in Ukraine is that the Russians allow the Ukrainians to break through their lines to kill as many people as possible and destroy as much Western equipment as possible,” she said.