Should the dollar cost 85-95 rubles, why Russia needs migrants and how will prices rise? Should the dollar cost 85-95 rubles, why Russia needs migrants and how will prices rise?

Maxim Buev

Economist, professor, vice -rector for corporate projects Rash

Restrictions in the markets can lead to the need for additional transactions, each of which will increase the costs of the parties involved. An example of such a situation is to withdraw money from the country through cryptocurrencies, when instead of one transaction it is necessary to perform several. And each operation is accompanied by a specific commission.

The entry of the population of one country into another. In this case, this refers to the arrival of citizens of foreign states to Russia.

In the spring of 2022, the Director of the Moscow Exchange for Relations with investors Anton Terentyev noted that foreign investors generated almost half of the total trading shares on this site.

In the summer of 2023, the ruble fell to the dollar and the euro, which has already led to an increase in inflation. "Paper" talked about this situation with the economist, professor Rash Maxim Buev.

Read how the growth of military expenses weakens the national currency, how a weak ruble is associated with other links in the Russian economy and what problems will have to be solved in the coming years.

Table of contents:

1. Rising prices and outflow of capital . How the unpredictability of the ruble course affects the economy

2. Money in the sand . How the authorities weaken the ruble due to the growth of military spending

3. The impact of restrictions on the ruble course . Is the current indicators of market

4. Key rate and export duties . What measures do the authorities have to support the ruble

5. Geopolitics and uncertainty . How accurate forecasts of economists are today

6. Technology deficit and demography . What will affect the ruble in the future

7. Iran’s experience and the underestimation of Russian actions . What will happen to the stock market

Rising prices and outflow of capital. How the unpredictability of the ruble course affects the economy

- The obvious consequence of the weak ruble is the rise in the price of imports, which, of course, contributes to inflation. Import components are in a very large number of goods that are produced in Russia. Now they are replaced by other components, which are often also produced abroad. As a result, we get the so -called imported inflation, its acceleration.

If we talk about the volatility of the course, then economic agents, one way or another related to foreign supplies, should lay some expected course in their business plans. And if the national currency is unstable, then most likely the business will lay the most unpleasant scenarios and the highest possible foreign currencies. And this leads to higher prices.

What is the volatility of the ruble? ↓

Volatility is the variability of prices for a particular asset.

In 2022, the ruble became one of the most volatile world currencies: the difference between the minimum and maximum dollar rates to the ruble exceeded 100 %for the year. "Paper" showed this in the cards.

A weakening ruble also means low yields of ruble investments. The ruble exchange rate in relation to the dollar since the beginning of 2023 has decreased so much that he completely removed the profitability of the Russian stock market for the same period in dollars. That is, a simple purchase of the American currency in January and sale in September would bring you more rubles than investments in Russian shares.

In addition, the outflow of capital increases. It may not even be connected with the departure of people to other countries. It is enough that a person changes rubles to dollars and leaves these dollars under his pillow - as a means of saving. This is also an outflow of capital, since the purchasing power moves from the ruble space to the universe where everyone sells in dollars.

And the number of capital outflow is huge: according to expert forecasts, in the next three years this figure is expected at the level of $ 100 billion a year. This is a lot, 5 % of the Russian GDP. And in reality, the outflow can be even more.

Money in the sand. How the authorities weaken the ruble due to the growth of military spending

- The main reason now is a deterioration in payment balance. The country produces something, sells abroad, earns foreign currency and spends it on the purchase of imported goods. The balance between imports and export directly affects the course.

And compared with last year, export from Russia was reduced-for example, due to the fact that Russian energy carriers imposed sanctions. Somewhere they stopped buying oil in general, somewhere they installed a certain price ceiling: as a result, the flows were redirected to other countries, tankers had to be used instead of pipelines and so on. All this, of course, reduced income.

In this case, imports became more expensive due to sanctions. The country falls into a kind of trap - a decrease in the payment balance leads to a weakening of the ruble, which in turn makes import more expensive and even harder reduces the balance.

Another important story is that the money supply is growing in Russia, the offer of money. This is primarily due to a preferential mortgage and expenses for military purposes, an increase in defense order. That is, the state pays money to enterprises that produce goods burned on the battlefields. And these purchases in fact also weaken the ruble, since the products of defense plants in the current conditions are simply lost. That is, this is not something useful that will remain the country in the future. This is just money in the sand.

Finally, there is a question of inflation expectations that have been growing recently. Although the Bank of Russia at one time did a lot of work so that the expectations were stable. The Central Bank wants to see long -term inflation in the region of 4 %: so that the business when planning its activities refers to approximately such an anchor.

And if the authorities lose control over this, the so -called inflationary spiral will arise. When prices are rising, which causes dissatisfaction with the population, and the authorities compensate for this, for example, by increasing the salaries of state employees. In this case, salary growth can lead to rising prices, and increasing inflation will provoke further growth of salaries. So far, I think, there is more or less under control, but the summer weakening of the ruble is quite significant and fast-it can become a problem.

The impact of restrictions on the ruble course. Is the current indicators of market

- When they say about the “market course”, this is always a little conversation from the evil one. There is no completely free market, in reality there are always any restrictions. Another question is how strongly acting restrictions affect market balance.

For example, last year's situation with the strengthening of the ruble was outside this balance: the course was determined primarily by restrictions on the withdrawal of capital and departure from the non -residents market.

Since then, the ruble has almost doubled: just against the background of smooth removal of various restrictions. And I think that already somewhere in July of this year, currency courses came to relatively market indicators. There is even an opinion that now the ruble is slightly underestimated and the fair value of the dollar is somewhere in the range of 85-95 rubles.

Key rate and export duties. What measures do the authorities have to support the ruble

- The Central Bank has some control over indicators related to inflation, interest rate, the volume of money supply within the country, and even emotional expectations of business regarding future inflation.

The Ministry of Economic Development and other ministries determine how our economy is growing in the long term, how competitive it is. This also affects the course, because, ultimately, this affects the balance of imports and exports.

What can the Bank of Russia? He can raise or lower the key rate, influencing the desire of economic agents to spend or save money. He can carry out the so -called verbal interventions - explain his actions, give forecasts at a key rate in the future, thereby affecting the mood and expectations of market participants.

But the Central Bank cannot affect, for example, to the labor market. Our country has a very strong budget sector, and the government has a desire to maintain a more or less worthy level of salaries to state employees in order to avoid people who are dissatisfied with the economic situation to the streets. It is this that determines the possibility of the inflation spiral in Russia.

The financial authorities have tools for short -term correction of foreign exchange rates. We saw these tools last year, when there were serious economic shocks in connection with external sanctions. Then the restrictions on the withdrawal of capital and the conversion of the currencies helped the ruble.

Now - a year and a half after the start of the Ukrainian conflict - the Russian economy has been rebuilt and is in a new equilibrium. Gray imports appeared, imports appeared on new channels. Further, fundamental factors will affect the courses: how the economy is growing, what is the balance of export and import.

Although there is still the ability to smooth out course fluctuations: for example, from October 1 , flexible export duties have been introduced in Russia. Economists say this is such an analogue of the progressive taxation scale. That is, exporting companies earn in currency. The ruble is weakened, and as a result, in ruble terms, exporters receive superpowers.

For the standard, they headed for 80 rubles per dollar. If the course is higher, the state sees part of their revenue through the exports through the export fee. Accordingly, exporters are forced to sell currency to pay for the fee in rubles. Thus, the demand for rubles increases, and such an automatic stabilizer is obtained. The higher the course, the higher the fee - and the more currency should be sold to exporters. This is a very good solution, a cunning that will stabilize foreign exchange rates. This will not solve long -term problems, but the short -term fluctuations in the fees will be buried.

Another tool is restrictions on the purchase of currency. In principle, there are countries where such restrictions work: you can exchange dollars for local currencies, and it is much more difficult to go back. So, let's say, Nepal Rupe. In Argentina it was. It was 15 years ago in Morocco.

So control over the movement of capital is one of the possible solutions that allows you to stabilize the course for some time. Although it is believed that the floating currency course is the best solution that allows you to smooth out external shocks without impacts on real production.

You can do, as in the Soviet Union or China, when there are several courses in the country: internal and external, for exporters. But the existence of several currency markets will increase the costs , which will lead to an increase in prices. And end consumers will pay not only for the product itself, but also for these restrictions.

Geopolitics and uncertainty. How accurate forecasts of economists are today

- Today in the economy we are observing a situation that happens literally once every hundred years. Relations between countries have changed a lot: it is like a very big quarrel, after which people do not talk for six months. These conditions lead to high uncertainty, and making accurate forecasts is very difficult.

In addition, in the economy, forecasts for 10 or 100 years ahead is easier to do than anticipate short -term fluctuations in the coming months. As in the famous aphorism about our country: "In Russia, everything is changing in 10 years, nothing in 200 years."

There is volatility and there is a trend. The trend is more or less stable, it can be predicted. This is a matter of demography, investment in healthcare and education and science. And it is he who for a long time determines how exactly the country is developing. And we are not the best trend now.

And short -term fluctuations can be very different, since an unprecedented situation has developed in the financial markets. For example, last year bonds and US shares simultaneously fell - usually profitability on these instruments are in antiphase, but here both profitability collapsed by a couple of tens of percent at the same time. There was no such situation for a very long time.

There are many other factors: geopolitics, rupture of economic ties and production chains, the actions of the authorities in different countries. So, in the United States, the gold and vein reserves of our Central Bank froze-and this is an unprecedented step, because the dollar and the federal reserve system de facto were the reserve currency and the central bank for the whole world.

This system functioned due to the fact that players from different countries trusted the US financial system. Everyone knew that it was possible to store savings in American banks, which at the first request would be given. Now, doubts appeared in this, the rules have changed. American banks may not give money from the account if you are under sanctions.

Our Central Bank in the domestic market acted in a similar way: non -residents limited the possibility of withdrawing money and selling assets. Despite this, foreign companies still leave the market, there is a redistribution of assets, and they usually sell their Russian business with a discount. In such a situation, it was absolutely impossible to predict something, back in 2021 this could not be represented.

Now the situation is a little settled, but it is still worth approaching short-term forecasts: they can be based on the implementation of the script desired by one or another expert, and not on a comprehensive analysis of the situation, which is almost impossible to do due to a huge set of uncertainty.

Technology deficit and demography. What will affect the ruble in the future

- Now we are observing in Russia the growth of money supply, military expenses, payments to state employees and preferential mortgages. All this weakens the ruble. We also observe a certain dynamics of imports and exports associated with the correction of supply channels and a change in oil prices. This also affects the national currency.

Based on this, we can make a more or less reasonable assumption that by the end of the year the ruble will be in the range of 85-95 rubles per dollar. Of course, if there are no serious external shocks: for example, if scientists open a new source of energy or China join the sanctions against Russia, this forecast will need to be significantly adjusted.

And then the factors that affect the courses medium -term and long -term are already important. And here everything is not very good for us.

The first story is connected with the import of technology. Russia de facto is now cut off from the receipt of advanced technologies from Europe and the USA. This cannot but affect the technological and import of Russian exports and imports - it will inevitably fall. Accordingly, the potential of economic growth will be lower than in other countries, and the goods will be worse. And this means that they should be cheaper than analogues from other countries, which is a negative factor for the ruble.

Demography is another thing that potentially slows down economic growth. For example, in the nineties after the collapse of the Soviet Union, people experienced severe stress and gave birth to few children. Accordingly, we now have a great failure in a generation that should give birth to children now. And due to this situation, these people give birth even less: someone emigrated, someone refuses this decision due to general uncertainty.

This means that we receive a potential demographic pit of the second order, and after 20-30 years the lack of human capital will be even greater. And the simplest models of economic growth say that population growth determines the growth of the economy. Of course, other factors play a role, but demography is the main component of the long -term growth of the economy.

And our population growth rate is negative - and, I think, will remain negative. As a result, this will lead to the fact that the Russian economy will stagnate.

So for a long time we need to think about how to solve the problem of a lack of technology and people. And I’m just sure that I will have to strengthen immigration : we will not force everyone to give birth to all, and there are not enough human resources now.

It is clear that strengthening immigration is a painful question for any country. It is necessary to accept and integrate people with another culture, in another language, and other habits. But this must be done. Moreover, the influx of immigrants does not take out jobs: this is such a chauvinistic myth. On the contrary, immigration increases the economy.

In addition, the state needs to invest more in education, science and healthcare. The country needs working hands: they must be smart and healthy. Unfortunately, the Russian State Budget for the next three years does not imply an increase in expenses in these areas. So in the long -term period, there is little pleasant.

Iran’s experience and underestimation of Russian actions. What will happen to the stock market

-If you supply the population with money, then sooner or later it is poured into a bubble in some market. It can be real estate or stock market, as happened in Iran. There, the domestic stock market, indeed, accelerated, despite external sanctions.

In Iran - like ours - many new investors entered the market in covid times. In addition, they conducted privatization of state enterprises, comparable to what happened in Russia in 1994. Iran’s authorities released special papers - Justice Shares, shares of justice. These shares were distributed among the population and created a secondary market in which people could sell their assets. Trade of these shares also influenced the growth of Iranian securities.

Нечто похожее произошло в 2022 году и в России: денежная масса увеличилась, долгосрочных интересных возможностей для инвестирования в стране нет, поэтому люди несли деньги на фондовый рынок. За счет этого он рос.

Сейчас на рынке наступает коррекция, потому что притока новых денег на биржу с прежней скоростью нет. Кроме того, рынок акций сильно пострадал за счет выхода нерезидентов в прошлом году. Большая часть всех участников рынка акций до 2022 года были нерезидентами: например, существенным было участие иностранных инвестиционных фондов.

Теперь все эти игроки из России ушли, объемы торгов упали, а структура рынка сильно изменилась. Значительно большее влияние на рынок оказывают теперь частные инвесторы, которые в большей степени подвержены сентименту и иррациональным мотивам. Это значит, что рынок станет более волатильным.

Но в целом я уверен, что нынешняя ситуация носит временный характер: через десять лет все может сильно измениться. Даже сейчас российские акции, безусловно, недооценены.

Как определяют недооцененные акции? ↓

Для поиска недооцененных акций используют различные мультипликаторы. Одним из самых распространенных показателей является p/e (price to earnings, соотношение рыночной стоимости компании к ее годовой прибыли).

Например, p/e «Газпрома» в 2022 году составлял 5,16: это значит, что компания может полностью окупить свою рыночную стоимость за пять с небольшим лет работы.

Эксперты неоднократно обращали внимание , что этот мультипликатор у российских компаний ниже, чем у акций из многих других стран. Например, в США средний p/e составляет около 20, в Индии — больше 22, в Китае — около 12. В России тот же показатель составляет порядка 5.

Физически страна никуда не делась, рынок остается, возможности есть. Ушли многие компании, но свято место пусто не бывает. Какие-то компании будут замещены, какие-то вернутся на рынок позже. Соответственно, в долгосрочной перспективе инвестиции в рынок акций всегда принесут вам доход: если, конечно, сам рынок не перестанет существовать, как это было в 1917 году, когда большевики просто закрыли российские биржи.

Но если развала страны не будет и экономика выстоит, то через десять лет вложения в российские акции принесут свой дивиденд.

Обложка: у пункта обмена валют 14 августа 2023 года. Photo: Vyacheslav Prokofiev / TASS

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