Bloody Saturday

How long the war lasts, no one knows, but it is obvious: in the Middle East there are events of a tectonic scale

On October 6, the day when the Israeli celebrated two major religious holidays at once (Smini Azeret and Simhat Torah) were relaxed and sat home, another bloody war was identified on the political map of the world. On this last day, the Israeli traditional Jewish autumn holidays woke up from the howls of sirens: Hamas and Islamic Jihad* released thousands of gas missiles, and armed militants broke high -tech barriers surrounding the sector to penetrate Israel, shooting and capturing hostages. Boat terrorists also tried to get into Israel by the sea.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nyanhu said that Israel officially entered the war: the country's military-political office voted to use the so-called “paragraph 40 of Alef”, marked by the introduction of martial law in the country.

The last time “Clause 40“ Alef ”was driven 50 years ago, during the so -called court day. Then, on October 6 in 1973, on the day on which the Jewish day of the repentance of Yom Kipur fell, the coalition of the Arab states, led by Egypt and Syria, inflicted a sudden blow to Israel. That war lasted only 19 days, until October 25. How much the current one will last - no one knows, but now it is obvious that we are observing in the Middle East the events of a tectonic scale.

Over the first two days of the war, more than 700 Israelis were killed, most of which are civilians. Several high -ranking Israeli officers were also killed. More than 2000 Israeli are injured, some of them are in critical condition.

It has already been confirmed that a 30-year-old citizen of Germany, a tourist who visited the music festival in the desert near the border with gas, was torn to pieces by Hamas militants. On the videos that have dispersed on the network, you can see how her half -naked lifeless body in the body of a pickupa on the streets of Gaza beat and spit into it. The woman was later identified as Shani Nicole Luke, she was a tattoo master.

Accident or betrayal?

The events of these days are a catastrophe for Israel, the worst than the war day. Now the Israeli army does not just suffer losses - it is experiencing humiliation. In 1973, Israel was attacked by the largest Arab army, the army of Egypt, but this time small terrorist groups attacked 22 settlements outside the gas sector, and went deep into the country for tens of kilometers.

These small flying detachments not only invaded Israel, having overcome the Israeli border troops - they dragged the Israeli hostages across the border with them. Through the very border, on the construction of which Israel spent almost a billion dollars and which was supposed to be impregnable. This is a shocking blow to the potential of Israel.

Secondly, Israel has always been proud of the capabilities of his intelligence services. Those easily penetrated into Hamas, on Wednesday of Palestinian militants on the west coast and knew how to obtain relevant information, giving early warnings. Over the past few weeks, as is known to anyone who followed the news from Israel, Hamas conducted training maneuvers along the border with gas - right in front of the Israeli army.

And, it seems, Israeli intelligence interpreted these actions incorrectly, just like Hamas’s attempt to wash the nerves of the Israeli army. It was short -sighted and arrogant. As a result, Hamas did not miss the opportunity to take a daring invasion of land, air and sea.

Was this failure of Israeli special services an accident? There is something to think about, because the history of the Judgment Day war did not do without a spy scandal.

Ashraf Marvan was the Egyptian billionaire and son -in -law of the President of Egypt Gamal Abdel Nasser, and at the same time worked both for the main intelligence department of Egypt and the Israeli Mossad. Moreover, to this day, each of the parties claims that he worked exclusively for her. And the hero Marvan is considered both in Israel and in Egypt. The Egyptians claim that his work was to mislead the Israeli about the impending attack on Judgment Day. The Israelis, on the other hand, claim that he really warned them about the time and date of the attack.

Marvan, probably the most successful spy in history, died under mysterious circumstances on June 27, 2007, falling from the balcony of his house in London. His wife accused Mossad's murder.

Jews do not leave their

The painful awareness with which the whole of Israel wakes up every day: Hamas managed to take live hostages from border villages and kibbutsev - both civilian and military, including high -ranking officers. Among the hostages there are foreigners-migrant workers, tourists.

On the photos and videos posted on the Internet, you can see how the militants brought to Gaza a golf-car an abducted elderly Israeli. Another woman was removed when she was brought in between two militants on a motorcycle. Also on the Internet, videos of how the bodies of the already killed Israelis were dragged along the streets of Gaza.

Large groups of the Israelis were taken hostage by Palestinian militants in the border communities of Beiri and Afakim, but in the end they were liberated by Israeli special forces.

The hostages will be a big problem for Israel now.

In his previous premiere period, in 2011, Benjamin Netanyahu issued 1027 Palestinian prisoners, including 280 served lifelong conclusion, in exchange for the return of the same Israeli soldier Gihada Shalit from Gaza. What will Hamas need now?

Netanyahu promised to deliver a crushing blow to Hamas in Gaza, but now Israeli citizens will limit the capabilities of Israel for retaliatory measures.

Each step taken in gas taken, from now on, should be correlated with possible consequences for the lives of civilian hostages.

Well, one more big problem: the senior army officers, like the Prime Minister, who presides in the military-political office, now they know that in the future, most likely, a commission will be created to investigate how the Hamas invasion was generally allowed. Therefore, now they make difficult tactical decisions under the load of the realization that even if they cope with all this perfectly, an investigation awaits them at the end of the path.

It is not easy to think in such conditions.

Arab-Israeli world

The judicial reform, launched by Netanyahu after his return to power, caused serious damage to Israel, splitting society, and also actually distracted the attention of the authorities from the state of affairs in the army. Given the situation in which Israel is located, this mistake is unforgivable.

Dan Harel, the former head of the Israeli Ministry of Defense, previously stated:

"I have never seen our national security in the worst state than now."

But whatever Netanyahu for Israel, he is nothing in comparison with what Hamas became for the Palestinian people since he grabbed control over gas in 2007.

Billions of dollars that Hamas received only from Qatar over the years could go to build a productive society with worthy schools, a hospital and infrastructure. All this could become a working model of the future prosperous Palestinian state on the west coast.

But Hamas poured all his resources into the digging tunnels into Israel and the construction of missiles to continue his doomed confrontation with a much stronger enemy, depriving the inhabitants of Gaza of a chance of human life.

But why did Hamas start this war right now?

The intervention of Iran is easily guessed here, which also generously provides Hamas with money and weapons. And Iran’s goals are obvious: to prevent the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia, the opponent of Iran, and Israel.

To date, 7 Arab states have already restored relations with Israel, and the expected normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia, the largest Muslim country, would have a tremendous symbolic significance for the entire Middle East.

Islam recognizes two sacred places, which are the holy duty of a Muslim. This is Mecca and Jerusalem. While there is no peace with Israel, Muslims cannot feel fully fulfilling their religious duty.

The agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia in the form in which it thought, undoubtedly, would benefit from the moderate Palestinian administration on the west coast. After all, it assumed large -scale injections of funds from Saudi Arabia, as well as restrictions on Israeli settlements on the West Coast and other measures to ensure peaceful coexistence of the two states. As a result, the leaders of the West Coast, perhaps, would have received such a necessary impulse of legitimacy from the Palestinian masses, which would jeopardize the omnipotence of Hamas.

This amazing diplomatic agreement would probably require Netanyahu to abandon the most radical members of his government in exchange for the formation of a powerful alliance against Shiite Iran, which would include Israel and Sunni Arab states.

This agreement would be, perhaps, the largest geopolitical transformation in the region over the past 75 years. But after the attack of Hamas, this deal is frozen. If not to say that it is completely canceled.

A few hours after the invasion of Hamas, Saudi Arabia published a statement stated: “The kingdom carefully monitors the unprecedented development of events between the number of Palestinian groups and the Israeli occupation forces,” adding that it repeatedly warned about the consequences of the “deterioration” of the situation, and everything that was happening is “the result of the occupation, as well as the imprisonment, as well Palestinian people of his legal rights. "

Who, if not Hamas?

Does the current terrible war between Hamas and Israel give at least some reasons for geopolitical optimism (if it is generally appropriate to talk about optimism in this terrible context)?

History teaches us that every terrible conflict still leaves the parties parties to the opportunity for a decent exit.

So it was in 1973, during the war day, which had far -reaching consequences. The 1978 Camp-David Agreements, on the one hand, led to the fact that Israel returned Egypt the entire Sinai Peninsula, occupied back in 1967. But the subsequent Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty of 1979 marked the first case of recognition of the Arab country of Israel as an officially existing state. After reaching the world with Israel, Egypt continued his removal from the Soviet Union and ultimately completely left the Soviet sphere of influence.

And now: the possible entry of Israel in gas with a significant probability will create conditions for the real and stable settlement of relations with the Palestinians.

What Palestinian militants have done over these days, in the perverted mind of the fanatics of the war, has already been counted for the “victory”, regardless of what will happen next. But someone should think not only about the further use of power.

Hamas cannot be a reliable partner in achieving a safe and strong world with Israel. Over the years, Hamas had many opportunities to prove that the responsibility for the well -being of Gaza will weaken his desire to destroy the Jewish state.

However, he turned out to be nothing more than the Palestinian Islamic mafia, interested only in maintaining his control over gas and ready to act as a proxy of Iran - instead of building a new future for Palestinians in gas and on the western coast. The story of his reign in Gaza is shameful.

But the Palestinian administration may be a partner in finding peace. And, if there is an Israeli gas invasion in order to destroy Hamas, it will surely be accompanied by a political initiative that will endow the Palestinian administration with powers and will help strengthen it so that all parties can come to a decision, after which they will be able to live in the world.

* The Islamic Jihad movement is recognized in Russia by terrorist and prohibited