Stability against rebooting. What to expect from parliamentary elections in Poland?

Two former prime minister of the country is leading their parties to the elections

On Sunday, October 15, parliamentary elections will be held in Poland. The ruling conservatives from the Party “Law and Justice” claim the historical third term in power, but they are intended to stop the liberal “civil coalition”: it promises society to reboot. The outcome of the struggle of the two largest parties should be a historical moment for the country whose voters make a choice between the conservative and liberal course of development of the country. Medusa tells how this twenty -year rivalry can end.

In the latest history of Poland, none of the parties managed to rule three terms in a row. "Law and Justice" intends to become the first

Parliamentary elections will be held on October 15. This vote falls on the symbolic line - the party “Law and Justice” (PIS) has been in power since 2015, it won in two electoral cycles in a row (the last parliamentary elections in which it received the majority passed in 2019). In the latest history of Poland, none of the parties managed to achieve a third consecutive in a row of victory in the Seima elections. Only one political force claimed this - the liberal “civilian platform” (GP), which formed the government in a coalition with the Polish peasant party from 2007 to 2015.

Until 2007, the government in the country often changed. The board of the “civilian platform” seemed a unique phenomenon, which is customary to explain to the negotiations of its leader Donald Tusk . He knew how to find compromises with both party members and its allies. The loss of the “civilian platform” in 2015 was explained , including the “fatigue” of the Poles who are not accustomed to the fact that one party may be in power for so long.

If “Law and Justice” can be held in power, Poland will enter a new stage of political history. The last party, which ruled the country longer than eight years, was the Polish United Workers' Party (PORP). Her power ended with a devastating defeat in the first partially free elections in June 1989.

Oppositionists compare the current campaign with that elections. On their anniversary, June 4, 2023, the Civil Coalition organized a street march in Warsaw (according to various sources, from 300 to 500 thousand people participated in it). The first head of the Solidarity trade union, former president, Nobel Prize of the World Lech Valens (this year, turned 80 years old) also entered the march.

In preparation for the action, its supporters actively used the image from the famous opposition poster of 1989 W SAMO Poludnie ("Divore at Half") of the authorship of the Polish artist Tomash Sarnetsky. On the poster, against the backdrop of the “Solidarity” inscription, the hero of the American western of the same name Sheriff Kane performed by Gary Cooper with a ballot ballot in his hands is depicted. On the new version of the poster is an unknown man in a suit of the same hero and with a ballot in his hands. The publication of the picture was accompanied by the slogan “New times. New challenges. New Sheriff. "

The leaders of “right and justice” call the upcoming elections fateful: on October 1, at the congress of supporters of the party, Prime Minister Mateusz Moravesky said that the future of the country depends on whether the people will “awaken” and whether Poland citizens will take part in the elections. Party Chairman Yaroslav Kachinsky in his speeches draws gloomy scenarios in the event of the victory of the opposition - the immersion of Poland in political chaos. In his opinion, the preservation of PIS in power and internal stability will provide the best prospects in Poland.

The election campaign is built around important issues for society. The decision of the voters is largely affected by the individuals of Donald Tusk and Yaroslav Kachinsky

The rivalry of “Law and Justice” and “Civil Platform” has been two decades. Of the last two elections, conservatives came out by winners. In 2014, Tusk left the prime minister to become the head of the European Council (this gave a reason to the Poles to ironicallycall him the “king of Europe”). The personal success of the politician led his party to the crisis: the new leaders were not just as successful in the eyes of voters and could not provide a compromise between different currents both inside the party and in the coalition formed in 2018, which began to lose some elections behind others. In 2021, Tusk, at that time, who served as the leader of the largest party in the European Union - the European People's Party - turned his career into the EU and returned to Poland. He again headed the “Civil Platform”. The party and members of the coalition formed around it welcomed the "return of the king."

The return of Tuska to Polish politics gave the election campaign a predictable personal character. The head of the PIS Yaroslav Kacinsky considers Tuska a personal enemy and calls him guilty of a plane crash over Smolensk, in which the brother of the Kachinsky brother-at that time President of Poland Lech Kachinsky. The election campaign of the whole party is also partially concentrated on criticism of Tuska. Kacinsky with the one -party members accuse him of working in Germany and call him the GP "German party."

However, even if you do not take into account the statements of Kacinsky, Tusk has a noticeable anti -rating among the Poles. Especially among the voters-priests who did not approve his work in pan-European structures. According to a survey conducted in December 2022, the IPSOS sociological company for an independent publication OKO.Press and Tok.FM radio stations, 63% of the participants replied that they would not want to see the prime minister again in case of the victory of the opposition in the elections. Among the supporters of the PIS who took part in the survey, 86%gave such an answer.

The main argument of the opposition: the current authorities of Poland have moved away from democratic values

The authorities of the European Union and international media reproached the party “Law and Justice”, which over eight years in power adopted many laws, in non -combination and “undermining the principle of the rule of law”.

In 2015, the party adopted the so -called Media Law, according to which the Minister of State Property received the authority to appoint a leadership and members of the supervisory board on state television channels and radio stations. At the same time, the authorities sharply increased the financing of the state media: the corresponding budget expenditures increased from 780 million zlotys in 2016 to 2.7 billion zlotys in 2022. The TVP state television center and the information and political programs published on its channels have become a symbol of shameless state propaganda for opponents PIS. Veteran of the Polish rock scene, T.Love in 2022, devoted a separate song to the concern with the refrain “Turn off the TVP”.

The Party "Law and Justice" dealt a serious blow to the independence of the Polish judicial system, appointing new candidates to the Supreme and Constitutional Courts, whose powers are disputed by the opposition. For this, she has serious reasons. In 2017, the authorities changed the procedure for the election of members of the National Council of Justice - a self -governing body, which is responsible for approving the candidates of new judges. Now the council is formed at the expense of nominees approved by the majority of the Sejm. Previously, candidates chose a general meeting, which included representatives of the courts of all ranks. Now the career of judges is depending on the will of parliamentarians.

Because of this, the European commission and the European Union court have already questioned the independence of the Polish courts. In Poland itself, supporters of the opposition are often called “nonsense” of members of various courts appointed by the New National Council of Justice, and do not recognize their powers.

Since 2021, abortion has almost completely banned in the country. In addition, the authorities openly say that they are not going to recognize the rights of LGBTK-loves. Part of the Polish local governments controlled by PIS in 2019 began to accept declarations on the creation of “zones free from LGBT” . But the campaign had to be stopped noisy: the EU threatened to deprive the municipalities of part of his financing that adopted declarations.

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Since 2015, the party has conducted changes in social policy, the results of which many Poles were able to feel on themselves. The former liberal government of the “civilian platform” did not pay close attention to social policy and ignored the request of society for justice, which citizens then felt especially sharply.

One of the most important measures held by the PIS government (especially against the background of other EU countries and most countries of the world) was a decrease in the retirement age. It was increased to 67 years for men and women, just by the Government of Tusk in 2012, the increase should take place in stages. Since 2017, men received the opportunity to retire at 65, and women at 60.

Another popular measure was the Family 500+ program: Polish families were able to receive 500 zlotys (about 115 dollars) for each child under 18 years of age. In addition, the PIS government began to annually pay pensioners the so-called 13th pension-it amounted to about $ 300. Those whose size of the pension is noticeably lower than the average in the country, are entitled to two such accruals per year.

At the same time, the Polish economy is quite stable. It relatively easily emerged from the crisis provoked by Pandemia of Covid - in 2020, Poland’s GDP fell less than 2% (on average, the EU fell about 6%). In 2021, growth resumed, and, according to the Main Statistical Department of Poland in mid -2023, GDP growth compared to 2019 amounted to 11% (this is again one of the best indicators among EU members).

On the day of elections, the Polish authorities will hold a referendum. Critics of the ruling party believe that the wording of issues may affect the solution of voters

The need to hold a general referendum , which will be held simultaneously with parliamentary elections, the authorities explained the desire to find out the opinion of society on controversial issues. Citizens are invited to answer four of these:

• Do you support the increase in retirement age, including the return of retirement at 67 years for men and women?
• Do you support the liquidation of barriers on the border of the Republic of Poland with the Republic of Belarus?
• Do you support the reception of thousands of illegal migrants from the Middle East and Africa in accordance with the mechanism of forced relocation, which is imposed by European bureaucracy?
• Do you support the sale of state property to foreign entities, which will lead to a loss of control by a whisper and Poles over the strategic sectors of the economy?

The sale of large state enterprises to foreigners is a standard charge against the GP GP. It has repeatedly sounded from politicians Pis during the election campaign. In addition, the current Polish authorities invariably emphasize that they are opposed to the influx of migrants into the country, and claim that the opposition supported by Germany and Brussels will turn all the measures taken by Pis.

Oppositionists have referendum issues cause indignation. One of them, the leader of the Poland 2050 movement, Shimon Kholovnya, even before the final adoption of the referendum law, stated that with the proposed form of issues, the referendum ballot can be considered a “pre -election leaflet of PIS”, which is openly distributed on the day of parliamentary elections. In his OSCE election report, also draws attention to the fact that the formulations of issues and the use of budget funds for a similar campaign can help mobilizing supporters of conservative views.

Opposition politicians urge voters to refuse to receive a ballot. Although the leader of the “Civil Coalition” Donald Tusk refused to give unambiguous advice on how to act with the ballots, in one of the election performances, he drew attention to the fact that in small cities and villages, where most voters and even more than the functionaries involved in the election, they support the pussy, the refusal of the ballot can be an open declaration of the viewing of the voter. Such a refusal can turn into unpleasant consequences: problems at work or in communication with neighbors.

Competition of the two parties will compete with the united centrists, as well as the right and updated left

Other parties that also criticize Pis also participate in the election campaign. One of them is the coalition "Third Path". It includes the centrist movement “Poland 2050” (it was founded by the former editor of the Polish publication of Newsweek Shimon Kholovnya) and one of the oldest, but now having lost its former support, the Polish Polish Peasant Party, headed by Vladislav Kosinyak Kamyshm. The coalition with the speaking name focuses on those voters who do not support Pis, but is tired that the choice is reduced only to two eternal competitors.

The election also goes to the “unification of the left-wing forces” (Polish-“Levitsa”). Although the basis of the Polish left is the heirs of the PORP, which ruled in the socialist era, it has changed, having adopted new movements, and now far from communist ideology. One of these movements is “Spring”, led by politician Robert Bruck, open gay, consistently advocated for the rights of the LGBTK-loves.

Before the election, these opposition forces discussed the idea of ​​unification, but already in February 2023 they rejected it-primarily because of the position of the leader of Poland 2050 Shimon Kholovny, who did not want to be in the shadow of Tusk.

Kacinsky uses such a decision of the opposition as an argument to the fact that these forces will never be able to agree on unification - and in the event of a general victory, they will immerse Poland in chaos. Each of the parties has already announced the fundamental impossibility of forming a government along with PIS, primarily because of worldview disagreements.

The “Confederation” is of extreme right -wing powers in the elections - a movement that advocates radical liberalization of the economy, a strict anti -migrant policy, and also considers the possibility of terminating Polish assistance to Ukraine and the country's exit from the EU.

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In the last days before the elections, conservatives are leading, but the opposition has the chances of the majority in the Sejm

According to the opposition, up to a million people participated in Warsaw, organized with the participation of the “Million of Million Hearts” in Warsaw, (the Warsaw Police reported that there were almost 25 times less participants). The supporters of the opposition, the number of participants in the election march seemed sufficient to declare their confidence in the victory, which should lead to the renewal of Poland.

In search of additional votes of voters, the opposition urged the Poles living abroad. According to approximate estimates , five million such voters. This appeal was heard: the number of registered voters abroad has expired by 70% - up to 608 thousand. Four years ago there were 314 thousand of them, said Foreign Minister Zbignnev Rau.

However, politicians of the ruling party insist that most places in the Sejm will still be able to win.

The data of sociological surveys on the eve of the elections do not give a clear answer to the question of who will become the winner. A study conducted by the IBRIS sociological company on the order of the Rzeczpospolita and RMF FM Radio, showed that Pis could become a winner, having received 33.5% of votes. However, the Civil Code, according to these data, will defend only 5% of the vote. The “third path”, sociologists found out, can gain 10.9%, “unification of left -wing forces” - 10.1%, and “Confederation” - 9.2%.

If the distribution of votes in the elections really will be like that, the PIS will receive 197 mandates in a 460-seat Sejm. In theory, Kaczynsky can go to an agreement with the “confederation” that will receive 29 mandates, but this will not be enough to provide the majority at 231 votes. Opposition forces (in addition to the “Confederation”) can receive 233 mandates: this will give a chance to create a coalition. However, the situation in the Sejm after the elections can change dramatically if the “third path” does not overcome the threshold of passing into the Sejm.

"Jellyfish"