An impolite exchange of missiles

Who allowed attacks on 128 APU team and why peace negotiations of Ukraine and Russia are now impossible, experts explain

Last weekend, several important events related to the war in Ukraine occurred. Under the massive shelling of the Armed Forces, a shipbuilding plant in Kerch fell. The Russian army attacked the Iskander rocket for the construction of military personnel of 128 brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Also, from the explosion in his own house, the assistant to the commander in chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny died. And the Western media reported that the leaders of the United States and European countries plan to put pressure on Kyiv in order to conduct peace negotiations with Moscow. Novyevropa discussed these events with experts.

As if with a scalp

On Saturday, November 4, Ukrainian missiles exploded on the territory of the Kerch shipbuilding enterprise. The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the shelling. “The Armed Forces of Ukraine on November 4 struck 15 cruise missiles at the plant. B. E. Butoms in the city of Kerch. The air defense equipment shot down 13 cruise missiles, the agency said in a statement. “As a result of the enemy’s winged rocket, the ship located at the factory was damaged.” The severity of the damage and the name of the ship were not specified.

The commander of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Nikolai Oleshchuk congratulated military pilots on a successful blow to cruise missiles at the Gulf factory in Kerch. According to Oleshchuk, one of the most modern ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation was damaged - the carrier of the Caliber cruise missiles. "Well done, as if with a scalp!" - wrote the general.

According to the military analyst of the FBK, Yana Matveev, the Scalp missiles and, possibly, some other missiles (for example, S-200), as well as drones for diverting and overloading air defense were used to shell the shipyard.

“The shipbuilding plant is a legal military target,” Roman Svitan, Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, tells “New-Europe”. - I also believe that the enterprise “worked” with the French missiles Scalp. There were several strikes, but it is obvious that not 15 cruise missiles were used. The fact is that Ukraine today does not have the opportunity to run such a number of missiles at the same time. The Armed Forces of the Armed Forces have several Su-24, equipped for starting Scalp and Storm Shadow. One such plane can start two missiles at once. But there are very few similar front -line bombers in the air forces - only four aircraft. Therefore, only eight cruise missiles are possible disposable. ”

According to Svitan’s novel, when shelling, the small missile ship “Askold” of the Karakurt project, built at the Gulf factory, was hit. On board this MRK are eight launchers for Kaliber or Onyx cruise missiles. The ship, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is disabled. At least until the end of the repair, he will not be able to launch missiles.

The bridge is next

According to Roman Svitan, the APU missiles went almost to the Kerch bridge. This is a great indicator for Kyiv. “Ukraine can reach any goals in the occupied territory for quite some time - since the start of the supply of cruise missiles,” Roman Svitan continues. - Russians have to withdraw warehouses, headquarters and all other infrastructure to the territory of the Russian Federation. After all, the Ukrainian military so far use the weapons received from the allies only for blows to occupied territories. But do not forget that Ukraine today produces missiles on its own. For example, the Neptune cruise missile can hit targets at a distance of 300 kilometers. Such ammunition will easily reach many regional centers of Russia. Now there are more priority goals. For example, Kerch bridge. We do not know, but it is possible that part of the missiles knocked over melting were directed there. Also, S-200 anti-aircraft complexes in Ukraine are modernized for shock on the surface. Although they have a relatively low accuracy, for an attack, for example, the airfield, are quite suitable. ”

If the military Russian ships are destroyed and damaged as often as this has been happening recently, then, according to the Roman of the Svitan, Russia will have to take the entire fleet from the Crimean bases.

“The Armed Forces of Ukraine is not attacking the Kerch bridge because it is guarded by a dense air defense system and the necessary large resources for it to overcome it,” says Jan Matveev. “In addition, the bridge is just at the maximum range for the winged missiles available to the Armed Forces, which means they have fewer opportunities for maneuver.”

Mistakes from the past

On Saturday, the Russian army struck the Iskander M rocket on the 128th Brigade of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On the day of the missile forces and artillery, Ukrainian soldiers, built for awarding in one of the villages of the Zaporizhzhya region near the combat contact line, fell under the fire. Blogger Ruslan Kaganets wrote that in total, 22 Ukrainian troops died as a result of shelling.

The Armed Forces of the Armed Forces were confirmed by the death of 19 military from 128 mining and healing Transcarpathian brigade. In social networks on the unit page, it is also said that at present, a check of the circumstances of the emergency has begun. The Center for Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that as a result of the attack, military personnel were killed, and local residents were injured in varying severity.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that this tragedy "could be avoided." “The Minister of Defense Umerov reported to me about the measures that were accepted to find out all the circumstances of what happened, who specifically and what orders gave,” wrote Vladimir Zelensky.

- On the fact of the tragedy, criminal proceedings were registered. The corresponding investigation continues. Now the investigation should give the relatives of the dead warriors and society honest answers, how the tragedy occurred

And whose orders were wrong. " “Specifically, the 128 brigade confirmed the death of 19 of its troops,” says Roman Svitan. -The wine lies with the Soviet officers thinking. Some traditions, such as festive ceremonies, have not yet been completely obsolete in the Ukrainian army. Since the entire territory of the country is under a possible missile blow, the construction should not be carried out anywhere in Ukraine. ”

Roman Svitan is convinced that the enemy had previously received data on the impending event and was ready to launch the missile, accepting the goal of the air intelligence drone.

“I do not exclude conscious betrayal, but rather this is the usual desire to curry up, show off-from the part of some boss, who himself does not happen at the front and does not realize the whole risk,” suggests Jan Matveev. - Intelligence on both sides works well in the frontline zone for 30–40 kilometers or more. No wonder Zaluzhny talked a lot about the need for electronic warfare systems. Therefore, it is naive to think that some massive movements behind the front line can hide from the enemy’s eyes. ”

Plot

After an interview with Valery The Economist in the media and social networks, you can increasingly hear conversations about the impasse into which hostilities entered. Against this background, the NBC channel published an article in which, with references to sources, it argued that officials of the United States and Europe began to discuss the possible consequences of peace negotiations with Russia with the Ukrainian government. These negotiations, according to one high -ranking US official and one former high -ranking US official, familiar with the course of discussions, allegedly lead to the end of the war.

The publication also states that the conversations included very general information about what Ukraine may have to refuse to reach an agreement. The first negotiations that the officials called delicate took place last month during the meeting of representatives of the countries supporting Ukraine.

“According to officials, representatives of the Biden administration are also concerned that Ukraine ends with the forces, while Russia seems endless

, - said in the material NBC. “Ukraine is also experiencing difficulties with a set of soldiers.”

According to NBC sources, NATO may offer Kyiv some security guarantees, even without a formal entry of Ukraine into an alliance, as an incentive for Zelensky, consider the issue of negotiations. Thus, according to NBC interlocutors, Ukrainians will be able to be sure that Russia will restrain themselves from a new invasion.

“Rumors about the conducting negotiations - in its purest form, the informational stuffing of the Center for Special Epection of the FSB, specializing in the preparation of such fakes,” is convinced by Roman Svitan. - None of the partners of Ukraine is even stuttering about negotiations. Rather, the opposite: the most important task set before the Armed Forces is the military defeat of the Russian army. The proposal to stop hostilities today is very profitable for Russia. In Ukraine itself, at least two -thirds of the population think and will only think about a complete victory over the enemy and the country's return to the borders of 2014. ”

“It is clear that from February 24, 2022, many politicians around the world think about what to find a way out of the conflict,” says Ilya Barabanov, a special correspondent for the Russian BBC News Russian service. - Western officials also probably puzzle over how a peace treaty should look. But what can you agree on if the parties in fundamentally differently see the contours of the future? Today there are too many contradictions in the positions of the parties to reach some kind of negotiation process. But even if you imagine that the conditional West somehow presses on Kyiv, this does not mean that someone is ready for constructive negotiations from the Kremlin. I have not heard a single realistic peaceful plan from Moscow. It is not clear what conditions Putin is generally ready to talk. He, as well as Peskov, Zakharov, Lavrov and other Russian officials, repeat the mysterious formulation that Kyiv should accept the realities "which have developed on the ground." Judging by how they pronounce this, they mean that Kyiv must recognize the transition to the control of Russia of four areas. Despite the fact that none of them have been captured 100% yet. It is impossible to imagine how Ukraine without a fight passes the Kremlin Zaporozhye, Kherson, Slavyansk and its other territory with cities. ”

According to Ilya Barabanov, Kyiv understands well that freezing of hostilities along the current line of combat contact will only give Putin the time to accumulate strength, prepare the army and attack again. Our interlocutor today does not see a good exit that allows you to conclude a peace treaty. “All conversations about peaceful negotiations are interesting, but you will offer at least one realistic option for starters that I would have arranged for everyone,” Ilya Barabanov finishes. “I would look at such a document with interest.”

Attempt or accident

From the explosion of the grenade in the village of Chaika of the Kiev region on November 6, the assistant to the Commander -in -Chief Valery Major Gennady Detstyakov died . According to the speaker of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Maryany Reva, as a result of careless handling of ammunition, a 39-year-old military was killed. His 13-year-old son was hospitalized in serious condition.

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny confirmed the death of the assistant in his telegram channel.

“Today, under tragic circumstances on his birthday, my assistant and close friend Major Gennady Detskov died in his family circle,” wrote Valery Zaluzhny. - In one of the gifts, an unknown explosive device worked. Gennady had a wife and four children. My deep condolences to the family ... The reasons and circumstances will be established during the judicial investigation. ”

“In some Russian Z-channels, a hysteria immediately began that the Saluzhny himself eliminated his assistant,” says a Russian military expert, who agreed to speak on anonymity. - At the same time, other “military commissars” began to write that Dystyakova was removed by the special services on the instructions of Zelensky: the president and the commander in chief were supposedly aggravated in anticipation of the presidential elections in Ukraine. However, no evidence of these hypotheses was presented. Therefore, I am inclined to the official version of the negligence admitted when handling weapons. ”

The Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine Igor Klimenko in his telegram channel described in detail the conclusions of the preliminary investigation. “As a result of priority investigative actions, it was possible to find out the first circumstances of the tragedy. Today, the deceased Major Dytsyakov had a birthday. He returned home from work with gifts from his colleagues who

He began to show his relatives. He took out a gift box with grenades inside and began to demonstrate one of the ammunition to his son. These were grenades of the new Western model. First, the son took the ammunition in his hands and began to twist the ring. Then the soldier took the grenade from the child and pulled out the ring, provoking the tragic explosion. "

According to Igor Klimenko, five of the same grenades were discovered in Dytsyakov’s apartment. The police have already found a colleague-servant who gave a fatal gift. In his office a search was held and 2 more similar grenades were seized.