A dumb voice

Zelensky does not want to hold the election of the President of Ukraine. It can play into Russia

The presidential elections of Ukraine were planned for March 2024 - simultaneously with the Russian presidential campaign. However, the political leadership of Ukraine will probably refuse them due to martial law: Vladimir Zelensky first allowed the election, but recently abandoned his own words. Zelensky now does not have worthy opponents, or they are engaged in the reflection of the Russian invasion. The refusal of the elections, however, will give a reason for Russian propaganda to question Ukrainian statehood. A new challenge to Ukrainian democracy is in the material "Cold".

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A wide discussion about the need for elections in Ukraine flared up after the Verkhovna Rada deputy Alexei Goncharenko said that the presidential elections would be held within March 31, 2024. An expensive and difficult vote in terms of organization, according to him, is necessary in order to prove the legitimacy of Vladimir Zelensky.

In November, the media reported that the president’s office wants to hold elections in order not to give arguments to Russian propaganda, which will take advantage of the situation to promote the narrative about the “clinging to power” Zelensky. And the president himself spoke about this in his interview several times. At the same time, Vladimir Putin, probably, already decided to go on the fifth presidential term, although officially the Kremlin does not recognize this. As a result, rumors about the elections had to comment on Zelensky himself, who now insists that they were not time.

“We must decide that now the time of defense, the battle time, on which the fate of the state and people depends, and not the time of information stuffing, which only Russia expects from Ukraine. I believe that now is not the time for elections, ”Zelensky concluded.

For money - yes

According to the Law of Ukraine, elections under martial law in the country are prohibited. But Zelensky himself admitted that the law could be changed , and admitted that Ukraine would have arranged elections if there was money. For this, the United States and Western partners need to transfer at least five billion dollars to Kyiv free of charge. Zelensky emphasized that he would not take a loan and would not pick up money from the defense budget for the election.

Some Western politicians require voting. For example, the American Republican Senator Lindsay Graham called on Ukraine to organize a vote, even despite the Russian invasion. In his opinion, it is important for the American people to see that "Ukraine has changed," because "in the past it was a very corrupt country." Later, the Republican asked the Allies of Ukraine to provide her with financial and technical support for the election.

“Several elements can split US support. One of them is the election. There were voices in the Republican Party, and then the American press supported this that the United States even during the war held elections. The logic is that if you protect democracy, then during the war you must think about this protection, and the election is one of the elements of protection, ” said the Ukrainian president in August 2023.

At the same time, the Ukrainian establishment is not eager to hold elections. The authorities have already postponed the parliamentary elections for an indefinite period, which were supposed to be held at the end of October. The Ukrainians themselves, judging by the polls , are also against the elections in wartime. Only 15% of citizens are positive about the idea of ​​holding nationwide elections in Ukraine until the end of the war. Almost two -thirds of the respondents (64%) relate to such an initiative negatively. A petition even appeared on the President of Ukraine with a request to introduce criminal punishment for calls for elections during martial law. True, while a little more than 400 people signed.

Who, if not Zelensky?

In early October, Zelensky admitted the possibility of holding elections in Ukraine, and if the vote was announced, then he was ready to nominate his candidacy. “In 2024, if the war continues and if the elections are held, I will never abandon my state in my life. Because I am the guarantor of the Constitution and I protect it in any case, ” said the President of Ukraine. If the war ends by that time, Zelensky promised not to nominate his candidacy. This corresponds to his election promise - in 2019 Zelensky stated that he would remain in power for only one period.

The powers of Zelensky should last legally and without elections, since the laws of Ukraine allow this. Ukrainians would hardly have been against Zelensky have high ratings: the vast majority of respondents (86%) consider it a worthy commander in chief. 82% of citizens approve of his policy as president. However, the level of approval is gradually decreasing: in April 2022, 94% of Ukrainians approved its work. Recently, Zelensky began to be more criticized . Ukrainians recall him promises to return Crimea in five to seven months, the lack of significant successes during a counterattack, as well as corruption in the Ukrainian army, which is often written in the media.

“In any case, it is clear that after the end of the war“ the effect of unification around the flag ”will cease to act, so the support of the authorities will decrease and the desire to change it will intensify. With the Verkhovna Rada and the government, this will happen almost certainly, and it depends with the President depends on the price of Victory, ” writes Ukrainian sociologist Vladimir Paniotto.

So far, Ukraine has only one opposition candidate. Former presidential adviser, Alexei Antystovich, announced that he was nominating his candidacy for presidential elections, and even published a pre -election program. In particular, he proposed not to conquer the occupied territories of Ukraine instead of joining the country to NATO. Also, Anyatovich decided not to continue the counterattack, but, on the contrary, to go into the "strategic defense". The entire business, according to the proposals of Antyrevovich, must rebuild on military rails.

“This is a very raw product, and now it was not necessary to release it in the media field. It’s hard to say who can lead to this, ”political analyst Alexei Buryachenko appreciated the Arrestovich’s program.

In March 2022, Armovich took second place in popularity after Zelensky, but now he did not even get into the top-25. At the moment, only 15% of Ukrainians trust him. Now the politician has gone to the opposition and says that he conflicts with the Zelensky administration: according to him, the president’s office organized wiretapping in his house and allegedly sent “disguised SBU employees to him.”

The chances of the arrester for the presidential chair are small , and the arrestovich himself is to blame for this. Commenting on a blow to the residential building in the Dnieper in January 2023, he entrusted the Ukrainian air defense forces, although experts refuted his statement. But the words of the president’s assistant replicated Russian propaganda, and the policy itself had to resign .

After the resignation, Armovich sharply changed his views. The politician compared his former chief, Vladimir Zelensky, “left by all the dictator wandering along the nooks of the hunkering of the hunkering”, which chooses stagnation instead of development and breeds corruption. He also publicly expressed doubts that Ukraine would win the war. Now the arrest is located outside of Ukraine.

The Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny can compete for the presidency. Such rumors have been spreading for several years, but so far they are not confirmed by anything. Judging by the September survey , Ukrainians trust the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces even more than the president (93.1% against 71.7%, respectively). The high bar of trust was kept in February-March 2023, after a year of war. Then 96% of citizens said that they trust the Ukrainian army, while Zelensky expressed the support of 83% of respondents. In February 2023, Zaluzhny ranked fourth in the ranking of the most popular politicians in Ukraine. The first place then went to Zelensky. In September, Zelensky retained leadership, and Saluzhny took only the 13th line.

Recently, the rhetoric of the laying differs from the position of the President of Ukraine, and the Western media talk about their open conflict. For example, they publicly argued about the course of the Ukrainian counterattack. The Commander -in -Chief of the Ukrainian Army called the situation at the Frontovakova front. Zelensky did not agree with the general’s assessment and recalled that Ukraine was in more patho situations. “Russia controls the sky. We protect our military. Nobody wants to throw people like meat, as Russia does, ”Zelensky said then.

Another possible candidate from the military is the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) Kirill Budanov. Among the obvious candidates for the post of head of state Budanov, even President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko sees : “If the elections are held in the near future, one of the military, Budanov or someone else will become president,” he said.

Less expected candidates can be advanced in the elections - for example, actor Sergei Protula. Now he goes the same way as Zelensky once passed: he came from show business to the policy of Pritula. Until 2019, he was a TV presenter and comedian, in 2020 he took third place in the elections of the mayor of Kiev, and now he controls the charity fund, which helps the APU soldiers. According to surveys, Pritula is steadily included in the top 3 politicians who are trusted by Ukrainians. However, it is unlikely that he will want to take part in the elections now: according to him, first you need to win the war.

“Any election, if they take place, will be a referendum in Zelensky. In addition to the slave, who is busy with the war, he does not have obvious competitors now. The Zelensky team understands that this can change, ” said political analyst Vladimir Fesenko.

Democracy in the trenches

Even if the elections in Ukraine are appointed, it will not be easy to hold them. It will take at least a year to prepare the voting procedure after the end of the war, according to Andrei Gevko, a member of the Central Election Commission (CEC). In wartime, Ukraine has a number of unresolved issues: lack of funding, monitoring procedures in a military conflict and equal access to the elections for everyone.

“The elections held in the conditions of martial law - without freedom of political competition, without freedom of media - will have a low level of legitimacy and democracy, will strengthen criticism from the Russian Federation“ On the illegal seizure of power in Ukraine, ”the Ukrainian Institute of Politics believes .

The priority issue of the organization of elections is money. The CEC of Ukraine calculated : almost 10 billion hryvnias (about $ 270 million) will leave for organizing a full selective cycle within the country (president, Verkhovna Rada, local authorities). It is also not clear how to arrange a vote in the occupied territories.

Zelensky quite seriously proposed to arrange a vote in the trenches. And there, according to the president, the observers should be sent. True, it is unclear how it is safe to organize such a procedure. Zelensky emphasized that the military Armed Forces of Ukraine should take part in the elections, otherwise "they are defending the rights of people, but they themselves will not have the right to vote."

Millions of Ukrainian voters are now abroad. According to the UN, more than six million Ukrainians left the country from the beginning of the war. Mikhail Podolyak adds : those who have not left for Europe move around the country, that is, we are talking about 14 million people who are not at the place of residence. "How to carry out the re -registration of the voter registry in such a short time?" - They are wondering in the office of the President of Ukraine.

“The planned elections are not necessary for our democracy,” said Olga Aivazovskaya, director of the Ukrainian Group for the Vehor election.

According to her, now refugees, front -line soldiers and residents of the occupied territories have no way to vote. Among other things, potential voters do not have equal access to media. The lack of elections in 2024 will not undermine the legitimacy of Vladimir Zelensky, the deputy head of the CEC of Ukraine Sergey Dubovik insists : the Ukrainian president holds his post in accordance with applicable law.

However, even in the case of the elections of worthy rivals, Zelensky is simply not at Zelensky - the opposition was not formed. The military is busy with the reflection of the Russian invasion and abandon their duties in favor of presidential ambitions for them is equivalent to political suicide. The Russian propaganda, on the other hand, the refusal of Ukraine from the elections will give another opportunity to question the legitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities, as well as all other options.