What’s going on around the Dnipro?

Russian state media reports of a redeployment drew the military’s ire. Here’s what’s really happening in the area in question.

On the morning of November 13, the Russian state news agencies TASS and RIA Novosti reported that the Russian army’s Dnipro grouping had decided to redeploy troops to more favorable positions east of the Dnipro River. “After the redeployment, the Dnipro [grouping] will free up some of its forces, which will then be used for offensive operations in other directions,” the outlets quoted the Russian Defense Ministry as saying. About 10 minutes after the reports were published, however, the agencies took them down, saying they had been released by mistake. Shortly after that, the Defense Ministry called the stories a “provocation.” Meduza explains what’s actually happening on the front in the Kherson region.

The situation on the front in Ukraine’s Kherson region (where Russia has deployed its Dnipro grouping) has shifted very little in recent days.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) continue to try to expand their foothold on the eastern bank of the Konka River, a tributary of the Dnipro. Fighting for control of the village of Krynky is ongoing; the available video evidence suggests the eastern part of the village is still controlled by Russian forces. At the same time, the AFU has continued to launch drone attacks and carry out artillery strikes across the Dnipro’s entire eastern bank — from Kherson to Nova Kakhovka — reaching a depth of about 10–20 meters (30–65 feet).

Here’s how we got here:

• After the liberation of the Kherson region west of the Dnipro River by Ukrainian forces in November 2022, the AFU began carrying out airborne operations against the islands formed by the main channel of the Dnipro and its tributaries downstream from the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant dam.
• In late March 2023, AFU units on boats managed to capture all (or nearly all) of Potemkin Island on the Dnipro, as well as part of Bilohrudy Island.
• By May, the AFU had dislodged Russian forces from most of the islands directly adjacent to Kherson; Ukrainian artillery fire from the Dnipro’s eastern bank made it impossible for Russia to maintain its positions there.
• In July, small Ukrainian units attempted to establish a stable foothold near the Antonivka Bridge but were ultimately unable to advance their offensive in that direction.
• Starting in mid-October, Ukrainian forces succeeded in establishing several stable footholds on the islands east of the railway bridge across the Dnipro between the river’s main channel and its tributaries (primarily the Konka). Ukraine currently controls the entire territory of the uninhabited islands upstream almost all the way to the Kakhovka HPP. However, the populated areas adjacent to these islands, which are on territory with higher elevation (such as the villages of Oleshky, Kozachi Laheri, Korsunka, and Dnipryany), remain under Russian control.
• The situation in Krynky, the closest village to Ukraine’s main foothold in the area, is especially dynamic. Numerous videos of Russian forces firing on Ukrainian landing forces appear to indicate that Ukrainian troops crossed the Konka in Krynky and took control of at least the western part of the village. Ukraine’s forces are supported by concentrated attacks from kamikaze drones against Russia’s positions. As of November 11, fighting in the forested area south of the village was ongoing.