Biden's heirs

How to stop being afraid and love polls of public opinion a year before the election in the United States

According to surveys, Donald Trump leads in five of the six states, on which the outcome of the presidential election of 2024 depends. The results of the latest survey The New York Times and Siena College showed that Joe Bayden is behind Trump - from 4 to 10 percent in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

What? Is it time to buy a packaging film for White House employees? But maybe first, let's look at the polls a year before the elections in previous campaigns?

A year before Donald Trump’s victory: “According to the published NBC/Wall Street Journal, Clinton confidently ahead of Donald Trump, the former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush and Senator from Florida Marco Rubio.” Donald Trump won, as we recall.

A year before the victory of Barack Obama: “The former mayor of New York Rudy Juliani leads in all Gallup polls. According to CNN/Opinion Research, 49% of voters are supported by Senator Hillary Clinton, and 47% - Rudy Juliani. ” Note that at the beginning of the article Obama and McCain are not even mentioned.

A year before George Walker Bush won with a minimum advantage of votes: “The Pew Research Center survey in October showed that Bush is ahead of the mountain with a significant gryst of 54 –39%.”

Since 1944, public opinion polls were constantly conducted a year before the election day. Their average absolute error is 10.6% - this is approximately equal to the current advantage of Donald Trump (and in some states it exceeds the numbers indicating in favor of Trump). The most noticeable mistakes can be observed in 1964-27%, in 1992-26%, in 1980-25%. The average value of all recent polls nevertheless shows a draw between Trump and Bayden.

There is a saying that in politics a year is a whole life. And for this "life" the Democratic Party has every chance to replace Joe Biden. However

Many voters who see a threat to democracy in Trump want to see as an opponent the one who had already won him. Therefore, most likely, we will still see a match-rare in 2024.

Nevertheless, is it possible in principle to replace Biden as a sparring partner for Trump? Yes. And technically, this is easily fulfilled up to the Convention of the Democratic Party, where the candidate will be officially nominated - this will happen on August 22, 2024. Firstly, Biden himself can withdraw his candidacy, which was written by the former strategist of the Obama campaign David Axelrod: “Only Joe Bayden can make such a decision. If he continues the campaign, he will become a candidate. He must decide whether it will be reasonable, whether this is responsible for his interests or the interests of the country. ”

Secondly, sponsors can threaten the refusal of contributions to the election campaign, and the most prominent party leaders may try to put pressure on the president. But among the democrats there are many wealthy people who are ready to support Biden’s re -election, even if it looks losing.

Thirdly, voters in preliminary elections can vote for another candidate. However, the nomination of the candidate against Biden will surely plunge the party into chaos, which will significantly worsen the party’s chances in a general election.

The last time the current democrat president came across a serious opponent on the primaries in 1980, when Senator Edward (Ted) Kennedy was put forward as opposed to President Jimmy Carter. Carter became a nominee for the party, but in a general election he lost to Ronald Reagan.

Who can become an alternative candidate from the Democrats?

Vice President Kamal Harris seems to be the most obvious contender for the presidency if Baiden refuses re-election. And it must be emphasized that for her this is the only possible scenario. But even under such circumstances, not all democrats are delighted with the idea of ​​nominating the current vice president, since her rating in polls is often worse than Biden. Economist/YouGov show for them the same anti -rating - 54%. A little more people have positively estimated Biden - 43% compared to Harris - 41%.

Din Phillips officially nominated his candidacy by Minnesota, although, as polls show, Biden is ahead of it by more than 60%.

Phillips himself constantly emphasizes that he is a fan of Biden and a supporter of his policy. Phillips, the heir to the wine empire, a former co -owner of the ice cream production company, himself sponsored his political campaign. Phillips does not receive organizational or financial support from the Democratic National Committee or Party in the field, which complicates the conduct of the election campaign in the already difficult struggle with the current president. Phillips adviser (and former Republican adviser John McCain) Steve Schmidt comments on this: “Lack of support from party infrastructure is not the same as the lack of support from voters. The party elite consists of people most far from the aspects of voters. ”

In the Congress, Phillips managed to defeat Minnesota in the third district, receiving a place that the Republicans took for a long time. In all subsequent elections, he received more and more votes. However, in early November, local lawmakers from the Phillips district published a statement in which they expressed their support to Biden.

Some democrats are convinced that Phillips can undermine the party’s chances if he sharply criticizes the president during the primaries, which will make him even more vulnerable in a general election. There is a version that the Phillips campaign can activate Biden's supporters, raising them in the fight against a competitor. Nevertheless, the majority in the party adheres to the first point of view. Politico gives a survey among a dozen democrats and their senior assistants: Phillips candidacy causes deep discontent in the party.

In the confrontation of Phillips - Biden, the main attention will be paid to age (54 - 80), since there are almost no political differences.

The only important question in which Phillips diverges with Bayden is Israel that the congressman protects more decisively.

Typically, during the preliminary elections, candidates soften and bring their positions closer, borrowing or supporting each other's ideas, in this case the presence of Phillips in the race cannot change their main difference in any way - it cannot make Biden younger.

For almost a year, the Governor of California Gavin News has been led by the shadow campaign. There was no official nomination, moreover, the governor himself repeats that “for nothing in the god of this light” he will not go against President Bayden. But still it seems that News is preparing for potential unexpected turns. It was impossible not to notice that the state governor on the western coast suddenly bought time on local state channels in the Gulf of Mexico to criticize the Governor of Florida Ron Live.

The landing was included in the battle, and all summer 2023 passed under the verbal skirmish of two governors. Perhaps this is a preview of the presidential election of 2028, and it is very profitable for both politicians. They earn glasses on this, crystallize their brands, and more clearly build campaigns.

In the videos against landing, News criticized his party and indirectly criticized Bayden - the first symptom of nomination for the presidency. The second and last term of the Governor of California ends at the end of 2026, and he already created a new committee of political actions (“Campaign for Democracy”) is another symptom. Therefore, now the Newsoma team began to take targeted steps to avoid the impression that he was going to run. For example, the Committee is officially focused on the confrontation with the leaders of the Republicans in the “dark red” (deeply republican) states of Alabam, Arkansas and Mississippi, who do not have the same importance in the presidential race. News avoids performances in the states where key presidential primaries are held.

A serious minus of the Newsoma, which cannot be corrected by any committees of political actions, is the rooted image of an archetypal California liberal.

It is also worth noting the Minister of Transport of Pywa Buttidzhe and the beginning of his “shadow campaign” can be called a trip to Kyiv in November 2023 to meet with the President of Zelensky and other high -ranking officials to discuss plans to restore the economy destroyed by the war, including by “supporting investment in transport infrastructure”. Formerly the mayor of the student town of Saut-Bend (Indiana) with the complex surname Buttidzhe, managed to find contact with the Americans and become one of the most noticeable persons of the Democratic Party. Its rating was also helped by the fact that Pete Buttigech, the face of the most important two -party infrastructure bill, which became one of Biden’s political victories, and will probably remain the main heritage of his first (or only) presidential term. Now some democrats are talking about how the second attempt to nominate Buttijach may look. A survey conducted in July 2023 by the University of New Gampshire Center Granite showed that the Minister of Transport by a small margin bypassed Biden in a hypothetical match. Significant (double -digit) support of Buttijcha among voters was also noted in a survey of the Institute for Government Studies of the University of California in Berkeley. It can be assumed that a trip to Kyiv is not the beginning of the campaign, but an attempt to divert attention from the claim filed by the conservative group, according to which the cost of 18 trips of Pettijachch on a private plane in August 2022 should be disclosed. But if the investigation does not show anything, then the meeting with Zelensky is preparing for the presidential election (although, most likely for the 2028 elections). Harris, Phillips and News remain the most probable candidates in 2024, but now without a combination of three factors: institutional support at the highest level (which only Harris will have in case of Bayden from the race), a lot of money for investing (which only the Phillips is now), recognition (which has been successfully working for a year), and also without real desire) Party officials, none of them, most likely, will become a nominee if Biden does not leave the race on his own.

Harris, Phillips and News remain the most likely candidates, but now without a combination of three factors - institutional support at the highest level (which, probably, will only have Harris in the case of Bayden from the race), a lot of money for investing in a campaign (which only the Phillips has), recognition (which has been successfully working for a year), as well as without the real desire of party officials - None of them, most likely, will become a nominee if Biden does not leave the race on his own.