The Economist: For the first time since the war in Ukraine began, Putin has a chance to win

For the first time since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the situation looks like he might win, writes The Economist. This is one of numerous recent publications in the Western press that Moscow is managing to turn the situation in its favor.

Details . The material, titled “Putin Looks to be Winning the War in Ukraine—For Now,” is announced on the cover of the magazine. The Economist believes that Ukraine's allies could thwart Putin's plans much more effectively, using their superior resources. But they, especially the countries of Europe, are hampered by fatalism, complacency and a shocking lack of strategic vision. The West urgently needs to get rid of lethargy for its own sake and for the sake of Ukraine, the magazine is sure.

• If Ukraine backs down, divisions in Kyiv will increase, and voices in the West will become even louder calling for an end to aid to Ukraine. At the very least, Russia will be in a stronger position in 2024 because it will have more drones and artillery shells, its army has developed successful electronic warfare tactics, and Putin is willing to endure horrendous losses at the front.

• Putin convinced most of the countries of the “global South” that the war in Ukraine did not particularly concern them. Türkiye and Kazakhstan have become channels for the supply of goods needed for the Russian military machine. And Western oil sanctions failed because a parallel system of hydrocarbon trading has emerged and the West cannot control it.

• Putin is also winning because he put Russia on a war footing and strengthened his power and positions within the country. Now he tells Russians that they are locked in a struggle for survival against the West. Ordinary Russians may not like war, but they are used to it, the publication continues.

• The Russian elite has tightened its control over the economy and is making a lot of money. Putin can afford to pay lifetime salaries to the families of those who fight and die, writes The Economist.

• Given all this, it is not surprising that the mood in Kyiv is darker. President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky and commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny quarreled. Internal polls show that corruption scandals and concerns about the future of Ukraine have damaged Zelensky's reputation with voters.

• Western governments say they are more committed to Ukraine than ever. But polls around the world show that this position is losing popular support. In America, the Biden administration is struggling to get Congress to provide more than $60 billion in funding to Ukraine. But next year's presidential election calls this into question. If Donald Trump, who promises a quick peace, is elected president, America could suddenly stop supplying arms altogether.

• Europe should prepare for this dire possibility—and for American aid to slow, no matter who is in the White House. Instead, European leaders are acting as if the generous Joe Biden will always be at the helm, writes The Economist.

• The best way to contain Putin would be for Europe to demonstrate its resolve by showing its commitment to a Western-oriented Ukraine right now. It needs air defense and long-range missiles to attack Russian supply lines, so it is critical for America to approve the final tranche of aid. Since Ukraine's weapons stockpile is already depleted, it is necessary to increase the capacity of Western weapons manufacturers. Sanctions could be more effectively aimed at separating the Putin regime from the elite.

• There is no point in hoping that Putin's regime will collapse; he can remain in power for many years, and if he succeeds, he will threaten war. Europe must view Putin as the main long-term security threat and plan its defense so that Putin does not feel weak.

Context . In their latest publications about Russia, Western publications also draw attention to the fact that the Russian economy is returning to pre-war levels, despite sanctions.