Why did the counterattack of Ukraine fail

Tactical miscalculations of Kyiv and Washington, lack of technology and the indecisory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have opened the operation to a dead end

The American edition of Washington Post prepared a lot of material about the Ukrainian counterattack. Three months in Washington, London, Brussels, Riga, Kyiv and near the front line in Ukraine, journalists talked with dozens of high -ranking officials from Ukraine, the USA and European countries. It turned out not only a detailed story about the course of the counterattack, but also the analysis of the causes of its failure. "Cold" retells the main thing from this material.

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The US military took an active part in planning the operation

Ukrainian, American and British military held eight large board military games to develop a counter -offset plan.

Participants played for Russian or Ukrainian troops. The behavior and capacities of the Russian forces were simulated on the basis of information of Ukrainian and allied intelligence. The behavior of Ukrainian forces was modeled taking into account their real restrictions in manpower and ammunition.

When planning a counterattack, specialized software for military games, EXCEL spreadsmates was used, and even simply moved the figures on the map. Modeling included small exercises, each of which was concentrated on a certain element of the battle. Conclusions made on the basis of modeling were taken into account in real terms of the campaign.

Supreme officials, including the former chairman of the United Committee of the Chiefs of the United States, General Mark Millie and the Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine, Colonel General Alexander Syrfa, were present on several simulations.

USA and Ukraine did not agree when to start a counterattack

In the Pentagon they wanted the offensive to begin in mid -April - this would interfere with Russia in strengthening positions. Ukrainians hesitated, claiming that they were not ready to start a counterattack without additional weapons and preparation.

At the end of April, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met with Zelensky in Kyiv to discuss preparations for counterattack. Stoltenberg wanted to know how the equipment and training of Ukrainian troops is moving. Zelensky said that by the end of April, the brigade will be equipped with 80–85%, but this is not enough to simultaneously protect the east of the country and at the same time advance south.

Ukraine, according to Zelensky, also needed more brigades and more modern weapons, including airplanes. For example, outdated MiG-29 fighters could detect targets within a radius of 64 kilometers and fire at a distance of 32 kilometers. Meanwhile, Russian Su-35 could recognize goals at a distance of more than 145 kilometers and knock them down at a distance of 120 kilometers. Ukrainian officials insisted that the country needed the supply of American F-16 fighters.

Officials in the United States, in turn, considered that it was better to purchase vehicles, air defense or ammunition than to put several aircraft worth $ 60 million. According to them, these aircraft could not ensure superiority in the air that Ukraine was waiting for.

As a result, only in May Biden lost. He gave European countries the necessary permission to provide Ukraine with American F-16. But the supply of equipment and pilots will take over a year - this is too late for the current counterattack.

There were tactical discrepancies

The US military was sure that the massive frontal attack in one direction in southern Ukraine would lead to a decisive breakthrough. Ukraine also attacked three directions immediately, believing that it would stretch Russian forces.

US military officials called for suppressing the enemy with the help of artillery while the mechanized ground forces would advance to their goal. They argued that this is the only way to succeed in a modern war. However, Ukrainian officials said that a large number of drones on both sides of the front line are the main factor that prevents both Ukrainians and Russian troops to win significant positions for several months. Drones could easily detect and hit artillery batteries, which made them extremely dangerous for the advancing troops.

On August 28, the 47th brigade of Ukraine freed the village of Worker, but could not advance further. The landing and screening divisions of the 10th corps, which entered the village, also did not succeed. In the south, where the Ukrainian Marines were offensive on Berdyansk, after the liberation of the village of Staromayora and productive promotion, too, did not happen. As a result, Ukrainian forces remained far from Berdyansk and Melitopol, which also entered the liberation plans.

The most fierce battles turned this summer under Bakhmut. The Ukrainian military hoped that the restoration of control over the village of Klescheevka would open access to the achievement of fire superiority on the southern outskirts of the city. But in the end, this did not lead to significant changes in the situation under the bahmuth.

Modeling based on military games led the participants to the conclusion that the Ukrainian forces at best will be able to reach the Sea of ​​Azov in the south of Ukraine and cut Russian troops in 60–90 days. But in the end, Ukrainian troops advanced only 19 kilometers. The Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces now recognizes that the war has entered the "pathetic situation."

APU miscalculations

American officials believed that Ukrainian troops should transfer more forces to the south, where fierce battles were going on. They feared that the enemy would try to destroy Ukrainian clearance machines, but believed that they could be disguised, for example, with the help of smoke.

However, it was not easy to convince the Armed Forces of Ukraine to change tactics. One of the officers who did this was General Christopher Kavoli, the head of the European command of the United States. He oversaw most of the Pentagon efforts to train and equip the Ukrainian army.

At the same time, Kavoli could not directly contact the hearing for several months, sources in the American army report. A high -ranking Ukrainian official noted that the Saluzhny throughout the military campaign talked with the American general Milli, who was also somewhat disappointed by August.

The Americans and the personnel of the Armed Forces remained questions. So, the Ukrainian 47th brigade was created at the beginning of the war to prepare for hostilities in spring and summer. In January 2023, the soldier was sent to study in Germany. The brigade consisted of young soldiers without combat experience, and its leadership was very young. The commander was only 28 years old, and his deputy was 25. Their youth was considered an advantage, since they could quickly learn NATO tactics and they were not affected by Soviet methods of warfare (which are still used in some parts of the Ukrainian army).

The Americans and miscalculations in the tactics of clearance of fields before the battle noted. In the Zaporizhzhya region, Russian troops built key defensive structures on hills, from where they could easily attack Ukrainian columns. Cleaning machines at the Armed Forces were always headed by columns, and they were the first to be attacked with the help of reconnaissance drones.

In the first days of battles, about 60% of Ukrainian clearance equipment was damaged or destroyed. Ukrainian officials admitted that tactics based on tank breakthroughs did not work. They were forced to change tactics, focusing on manual clearance in the dark, as well as the use of artillery and aviation to suppress Russian positions.

Results

In early October, the 47th brigade after a small respite in the battles again went on a counterattack. Zelensky promised that Ukraine would continue the offensive in winter, when the weather would further complicate any advance.

But by the end of October, the troops of the 47th brigade were suddenly moved east to protect the northern flank of Avdeevka. The Western weapons - the German Leopard tanks and the American combat vehicles of the Bradley infantry fighting. Relief in Avdeevka became a signal for the brigade that the operation in Zaporozhye is frozen. According to satellite pictures, the Russian military in the rear in the summer and autumn continued to build defensive fortifications. Around the village of Romanovskoye, to the southeast of the worker, anti-tank ditches and three rows of concrete pyramids were installed to impede the further attempts of Ukraine to advance.

On November 1, the General of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine admitted that before everyone was afraid to recognize publicly: the warwas at a dead end. “Most likely,” he said, “there will be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

As a result, both sides accused each other of mistakes and miscalculations. US military officials said that Ukraine did not own basic military tactics, including the use of ground intelligence to determine the density of minefields. Ukrainian officials said that the Americans seem to not understand how shock drones and other technologies changed the battlefield.

Ukraine regained only about 500 square kilometers of the territory - at the cost of thousands of killed and wounded, as well as billions of dollars of Western military assistance only in 2023.