It remains a month and a half

In recent days, a fracture has been observed in Gaza - Hamas militants began to actively surrender. But does this mean the end of the war?

The Israeli army after a week break with the end of fire for the exchange of some of the hostages to Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons firmly continued the fighting in the gas sector against Palestinian groups. In recent days, the army press service publishes new cadres, on which the militants either sit on the ground or transfer their weapons to the Israeli soldiers, surrendering to prisoners, surrendering to prisoners. These are no longer the brave warriors on pickups with machine guns on shots taken on October 7 in the border areas of Israel, at which they shoot unarmed dancers at the music festival, cut entire families in kibbutza or a chisel with the shouts of Allah Akbar are trying to chop off the head of the Thai worker.

In Israel, they are ironically called "boys in panties"

They are not stripped in order to humiliate (but for militants this is also humiliation, however, this is also life as a gift). This is the classic instruction of the Israeli security forces.

The terrorists undress to the underpants (even if they are already dead) to make sure that their body does not have a mortal belt, a grenade, a knife or any other threat.

Only two months have passed. The surrendering militants of Hamas and other groups admit: they go to this because they have lost touch with the commanders and do not know what to do. Hamas is hiding somewhere in underground bunkers and tunnels with the remaining hostages, other commanders are living in Qatar and Turkey. And at this time, the sector residents are trying to survive among the devastation and military turmoil. Maratrotyat trucks with humanitarian goods and food food warehouses Unrwa and already openly in an interview with al-Jazire curse Hamas, who sent all these punishment on them.

If it were not for the cruel sadistic attack of Hamas on Israel on October 7, there would be no this war and all these suffering. The IDF very reasonably built the tactics of military operations from the very beginning of the campaign, primarily the target of commanding the middle level - commanders of battalions and companies. When they are knocked out, it remains not to deal with the army of terrorists, but with abandoned groups of armed people who cannot independently make decisions. There is no link between them and the leadership of Hamas. Yes, somewhere they will, on the personal initiative of individual commanders of the junior level, attack the IDF, but in general they understand that the forces are unequal, and they have nothing to fight for. The top betrayed them.

This tactics of the IDF showed its effectiveness. Therefore, in the coming days, more and more militants will be surrendered.

The army notes that they observe the signs of a psychological breach in Hamas, and mass surrender is one of its symptoms. The militants are well aware that they will endure a day or two shame, but no one will execute them without trial, despite the diverging fakes in social networks.

They will fall into the relatively comfortable conditions of the Israeli prison, where the Palestinian administration will pay them and their families a benefit. And there is also the hope that later they will be able to free themselves within the framework of some exchange transaction and return home with heroes. So why should they fight and die in the battle, which is already lost?

You go quieter

The head of Hamas in Gas Yahaya Sinvar and the leader of the Izzaddin al-Qamam group (the name of the Khamas combat wing) Mohammed Def planned megateraract on October 7 for at least three years. In conditions of complete confidentiality. In Gaza, the units who talked among themselves along the closed internal communication line and spoke with codes knew about the plans. Sinvar turned to Iran for help, and he provided everything he needed: financing, equipment and weapons, cooked the Palestinian militants of the Khamasovsky unit of the Nukhba special forces. But the main help was from Iranian intelligence, which planned the “operation” professionally, in the smallest details. So, as Hamas himself would never have been able to plan.

One of the reasons why Israel underestimated this group is because the state was behind it. The collection of important reconnaissance information was carried out by bit. In the sector, chambers of video surveillance were installed everywhere along the border, which recorded everything that was happening. In a few weeks, Hamas taught Israeli military to daily “protests” at the border fence. From time to time, Hamas directed the crowd to break the fence, and he recorded how much time he takes the patrol to arrive at the place of the incident. Also, in front of the military’s eyes, the group conducted exercises, practicing the seizure of buildings and taking hostages.

A few weeks before the attack, all three balloons were disabled, which were observed on top of what was happening in gas. In parallel, for many months, there was a collection of detailed data on residents of border villages with the help of Palestinian workers working there.

In the meantime, Hamas in every possible way euthanized the vigilance of Israel, pretending to become more moderate and care about the sector economy. This is exactly what the Israeli leadership dreamed about, and Hamas played along with these expectations.

In particular, he even began cooperation with Israeli intelligence, secretly passing her data on the second in influence in the sector of the Islamic Jihad group*. This led to the Operation Dawn in August 2022, in which Hamas did not take part, and the Israeli army dealt a powerful blow to the jihadists. So Khamas killed two birds with one stone with one shot - he euthanized the vigilance of Israel, preparing a powerful blow to him, and also weakened his younger competitor.

The lulling of Hamas led the Israeli political and military leadership to blinding concepts. Numerous warnings, including from the inside of army intelligence, were ignored. As a result, even a meeting of the heads of intelligence services a few hours before the attack, caused by suspicious actions of militants in Gaza, did not lead to the fact that they began to sound the alarm when something could still be done.

Eye for the eye

However, not only the Israeli leadership was blinded by the concept. Since the beginning of the year, mass protests have been held in Israel, caused by the promotion of the ruling coalition of the controversial judicial reform. She split the company, and part of the reserve military personnel began to publicly declare that they refuse to undergo reservations and participate in army exercises - in the case of adoption of advanced laws. As a result, the leadership of law enforcement agencies and a number of politicians began to express fears that this was beating the country's defense capabilities. The head of government Benjamin Netanyahu was immune to this criticism and almost fired the Minister of Defense of Yoav Galanta. Mass demonstrations of protest forced him to leave him at the post.

What was happening in Israel was closely monitored in Gaza, Beirut and Tehran. They came to the conclusion that

Israel has become a paper tiger and it is necessary to use the moment of its weakness in order to inflict a painful, or even deadly blow to it.

Apparently, in response to the Israeli land surgery in Gaza, a coordinated attack from Lebanon was supposed with the support of Iranian satellites from Syria, Iraq and Yemen. However, something went wrong-precisely at the level of coordination.

They did not wait

Hamas himself chose the moment of attack, surprising this not only Israel, but also Hizball. She symbolically, of course, supported, but in Lebanon they were clearly not ready for such a development of events so soon, and they did not burn the desire to untie the war, remembering the destruction in the second Lebanese (2006). And then unexpectedly two American aircraft carriers appeared on the horizon, and President Joe Biden said Sheikh Hassan Nasellle, the leader of Hizballa: Don'T! After fussy diplomacy - Iran’s foreign minister visited several times in Lebanon - Hizballa began a war on low fire with Israel. At the same time, the militants try not to bend the stick so as not to provoke a full -scale Israeli answer.

Despite the fact that Hizballa is trying to run between the drops in the rain, the region is on the verge of developing its current confrontation with Israel into a major regional war with the participation of the United States and France. In Israel, they insist that the Shiite group has already begun to finally observe the UN Security Council of Safety 1701 repeatedly violated by it, according to which the Hizballa militants should not be in Southern Lebanon. The other day, the United States, France (and Israel) put the Ultimatum by Naughty: the withdrawal of troops from the Livo-Israeli border or war. According to estimates in Israel, Hizball will choose the second option.

They touched the living

The concepts of Hamas Srylov and Def were also blinded by the concept. They decided that Israel is soft from abundance and not the same. That the response to an unprecedented bloody attack will be the psychological trauma of the Israeli society (not without it), and Netanyahu, as before, will conduct a short military operation in gas, which will end with an slurred result. And international pressure will again force the Israelis to stop, without causing too serious the damage to the combat effectiveness of the group. In Hamas, they did not understand that this time everything is different.

That even in the Muslim world were impressed by perfect militants atrocities. That Israeli Arabs are in shock and are not ready to go out into the streets, as in May 2021. What in the world with understanding reacted to Israel's intention to bring the operation to the end and eliminate the Hamas regime in gas.

Hamas did not understand that he touched the Israeli for the living. At the same time, having killed more than 1,200 Israelis in one day and having captured more than 240 hostages, the leadership of Hamas was in euphoria from his own successes.

It decided that he still holds the initiative, not noticing the moment when the wind blew the other way.

When a weekly humanitarian truce was announced, during which Hamas exchanged the majority of hostages and elderly people in Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, Yahya Sinvar became the leader who tore off the ceasefire agreement. By that time, he had already moved from the city of Gaza to his native Khan-Junis, mixing with a crowd of refugees. For him personally, a truce has lost all meaning. The representative of the Qatari negotiating group was very angry at Synvara, saying that all the fault for disrupting the agreement lies on it. He acts single -handedly and does not coordinate his decisions with the foreign leadership of Hamas. “Sinvar is intoxicated by the authorities, tightens the position and makes decisions alone, he does not take into account the foreign leadership of Hamas, it is difficult for us to work with him, he has no logic,” the negotiator said on anonymity. And in the United States rightly noted that the liberation of Israeli hostages will lead to the fact that they will talk about the conditions of their captivity and such crimes of Hamas, which the militants would not want to become known in the world.

The dissected and killed Israelis, which had been alive and killed, cannot tell about what happened on October 7. But living hostages, being in the wild, can even be very. But the main thing, which, apparently, did not yet understand, Sinvar, - this time the IDF will bring his job to the end.

Victory first

After the truce was broken, the Israeli defense army continued to act methodically and professionally in gas. She cut the sector into three parts to prevent the militants from interacting with each other. The first goal - the destruction of the main stronghold of Hamas, the city of gas - has already been almost achieved. According to the army, all areas of the northern part of the sector will be taken under control in the coming days. The second stronghold-the city of Khan-Junis-is already surrounded, there are still fighting. In general, according to the military estimates, the cleansing of the Palestinian enclave from the militants will take about a month and a half. What will happen in Gaza after the war has not yet been decided, but the United States is conducting a dialogue with Israel on this topic.

* Mounted in the list of terrorist, its activities are prohibited in the territory of the Russian Federation.