"He will tighten the nuts"

Why did Aliev decide to arrange re -election in Azerbaijan?

Initially, the presidential elections in Azerbaijan were planned for 2025, but President Ilham Aliyev appointed extraordinary elections for February 7, 2024. He himself will also be able to participate in the race and choose for a new seven -year term.

Ilham Aliyev, who replaced Heydar at the post of his father, has been in power for 20 years. In 2009, he held a referendum on amendments to the Constitution and introduced a rule of unlimited selection for one person, and in 2016 he increased the term of presidential powers from five to seven years. The new newspaper Europe understood why Aliyev was extraordinary elections and whether it was connected with the Karabakh conflict.

Without resistance

The news of extraordinary elections, apparently, found the opposition of Azerbaijan by surprise. There were no rumors about such a decision before, in a conversation with the “New Gazeta Europe” the head of the Department of Conflictology of the Institute of Peace and Democracy of Azerbaijan, Arif Yunusov, claims. The head of the largest opposition party “The People’s Front of Azerbaijan” Ali Karimly commented on the news on Facebook: “Ilham Aliyev’s decree on the election in early February, without any public discussions, is the preparation of the regime for falsification of these elections.”

Azerbaijan has experience with extraordinary elections. In 2018, Aliyev held presidential elections not in October, but in April (he gained 88% of the vote for them). Two years later, early parliamentary elections were held , which most of the opposition boycotted.

The political scientist and former general secretary of the Democracy-1918 movement Samir Sultanov notes that a similar scenario of a boycott should be waiting in the upcoming elections.

- There are only two months, and in such a short time it is necessary to collect 40,000 signatures from different regions. For this, many candidates simply do not have resources, ”says the Novo-European Sultanov.

At the same time, some of the deputies claims that the opposition in the current form is not able to compete with Aliyev Jr. Such an opinion in the commentary for Novaya Gazeta Europe was expressed by the deputy of the National Assembly of Azerbaijan Rasim Musabekov:

“I assure you that even if our opposition in the form in the form that it exists now would have been half a year to prepare for the elections, I’m afraid that no sense would have happened from this.”

Righty discontent

According to Musabekov, Aliyev "is now at the peak of his popularity in the country." Nevertheless, not everyone agrees with the deputy of the National Assembly. According to Arif Yunusov, if the country would be fine in the economic and social agenda, people would not have gone to work in Russia. Only according to official figures for 2017, there were more than 760 thousand such labor migrants in the Russian Federation, and this number is only growing .

The Azerbaijani economy has slowed down in the past two years. If in 2021 GDP growth was 5.6%, then in 2023 the growth rate fell to 1.4%.

Also, the local economy is still very dependent on unstable oil prices, up to half of the budget of Azerbaijan - oil and gas revenues.

- There is Azerbaijan, but there is a family of Aliyev. This is not the same thing. Not Azerbaijan earn money, makes money by Aliyev and his environment. For 20 years, Azerbaijan has officially earned somewhere around $ 160 billion for oil and gas. But this is officially ( the data look close to indicators from the public reporting of the State Customs Committee of the country - approx. Ed. ). Real numbers fluctuate, according to independent experts, from 180-190 to 240–260 billion dollars. And the lion's share of this difference went into the pocket of the president’s family, ”says Yunusov.

Journalists also wrote about the connection of the daughters of Aliyev with the possession of a share in a company engaged in gold mining. Despite this, according to the State Institute of Publishing Polls, Aliyev’s policy in conflict with Armenia is supported by about 75% of citizens.

Any social discontent in Azerbaijan has long been hard to suppress. So, in June, at that very gold mining deposit, some of which belong to the daughters of Aliyev, in the mountainous areas near the village of Soyudla, the protests of local residents began. The reason for them was the intention of a gold mining company to build a new water storage vocabulary for draining water with acidic content on pasture lands. People went to a rally that was suppressed. It was reported that ten people were injured, some of them were poisoned by tear gas, some received physical injuries.

According to Freedom House, the country is located in 193th place (only 210 positions) in the rating of political and civil freedoms, with the mark “not free”. In recent months, the arrests of independent journalists have also become more frequent, especially those who specialized in investigative journalism and corruption. The number of political prisoners by December 1 reached 254 people. Over the past two months, five famous journalists have been detained.

In the annual rating of freedom of the press, “Reporters without Borders” put Azerbaijan on 151st place out of 180 countries.

At the same time, as the political scientist Samir Sultanov predicts, now it is not worth waiting for a new wave of arrests.

“Until February it will be stable and nothing will change, there will be no detentions in the pre -election period, but most likely, after an even more difficult time for opposition and independent journalists will begin,” says Sultanov.

Is there life after Karabakh?

The day before December 7, the US Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia James O'Brien flew to Baku. The state representative discussed with Aliyev what was happening with Karabakh and a peace treaty with Armenia. According to experts surveyed by Novo-Europe, it was this event that prompted Ilham Aliyev to appoint re-election in two months.

- Azerbaijan has little time left, he must decide on whose side it is (West or Russia), and approach the issue of a peace treaty with Armenia more seriously. Otherwise, Azerbaijan will have serious problems with the EU and the USA, ”says Arif Yunusov.

The conflict in Karabakh throughout the modern history of Azerbaijan was the key in the rhetoric of the authorities.

“Aliyev went to previous elections in order to solve this problem,” Musabekov recalls.

After the September conflict, the issue was resolved, Azerbaijan won, Armenia lost all kinds of rights to the disputed territory, but the peace treaty was still not signed. Against this background, rumors about the new war for the Zangesur corridor in Nakhichevan intensified until the trip of the American representative in Baku. On December 7, Azerbaijan and Armenia announced the exchange of prisoners (the former released 32 Armenian troops in exchange for two Azerbaijani) and intention to conclude peace.

- The propaganda moment disappears. This reminds me of the story with Churchill. The winner in World War II lost immediately after the war. Already the war has ended, we all think about inner life. And there is this unknown, which will be until 2025 - maybe the tension in society will grow. Therefore, it is better to hold elections now, get the presidency for another seven years, ”argues the head of the Department of Conflictology of the Institute of Peace and Democracy of Azerbaijan Arif Yunusov.

New course under the old leadership

After the victory over Armenia, Aliyev is a new task - to create a new ideology that is not related to hatred for neighbors, which will keep him in the presidential chair for another seven years.

All experts note that the reintegration of Karabakh in Azerbaijan will take one of the key positions in the Aliyev program. Given the mass outflow of the population and large destruction, it will be necessary to allocate funds from the budget for this. As the deputy Rasim Musabekov says, it is worth waiting for changes in the country's management system.

- Due to the fact that 20% of the territory was not under our control, in these territories, for example, there were no municipalities. Also, as far as I know, certain changes are planned with the expansion of the powers and composition of the parliament. All these things require a referendum, changes in the constitution. I do not exclude that he will follow after the presidential election - Musabekov.

However, not all believe in the future democratic changes. According to Yunusov, the changes for the better to wait recklessly.

- The course will be, of course, towards the East, not the West. Under the East, I mean movement towards tightening by the type of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and so on. Aliyev’s dream is that in Azerbaijan there is a device, like in some Arab country, but at the same time to be considered a democrat. He will not reform the country along the path of democracy, as he promises. Because the democratization of the country means freedom of choice, freedom of speech. This is death for him. He will not allow this. It will, on the contrary, will tighten the nuts, ”concludes Yunusov.