Kirill Krivosheev - about relations between Moscow and Yerevan

in the RTVI publication An expert on the post-Soviet space, Kirill Krivosheev, writes :

“To decide in 2023 on something that was too risky in 2021 will be not just dangerous for Moscow, but downright suicidal. In the current conditions, only someone who shows himself to be no less pro-Western than the current government, but at the same time more competent, can speak out against Pashinyan.

There are currently no prominent candidates, and an attempt to convince Armenians that the best option is to go back could provoke a powerful pushback. A network of pro-Russian telegram channels scolding Pashinyan will not be enough - both “titushki” and the real involvement of loyal personnel in law enforcement agencies will be needed.

The outcome, most likely, will be the same as 10 years ago in Kyiv - the country will be picked apart like an anthill, and the goal (maintaining influence in one’s orbit) will still remain unachieved. The input data in modern Armenia, by the way, is even worse than in Ukraine in 2013 - the country has already suffered grief and is convinced that Russia is to blame.

It is not easy to believe that Moscow can calmly watch Yerevan officials discuss regional security with Brussels and Washington. However, this particular scenario seems to be the most rational. Western politicians are slow and not always decisive, which means that it is quite possible that the Armenian society will still have time to get burned by too high expectations. Thus, the path to restoring relations with Russia may lie through a “fuck it all” attitude, and then through cooling down and returning to rationality. “Pro-Russian Maidan” or economic strangulation negates any positive scenarios.

I don’t often agree with Russian foreign policy, but Moscow now seems to understand these threats—and that’s good for everyone.”