Foreign Affairs - about the risk of nuclear escalation

Former National Intelligence Council official Peter Schroeder writes in Foreign Affairs about the leading possible nuclear escalation scenario between Russia and the West:

“In any case, tactical nuclear strikes will only harm the ability to conduct air defense. Such strikes will increase the West's desire to continue to help Ukraine at a time when that support is beginning to wane (Western politicians of all stripes want to make sure that atomic weapons are never used during the conflict). A nuclear strike would immediately push China and India—the Kremlin's two most important international partners—to retreat from Russia. Beijing and New Delhi have already issued statements in which they persistently tried to persuade Moscow to abandon the use of atomic weapons. They definitely won't like it if Putin ignores them.

The Kremlin will gain little if nuclear weapons are used in Ukraine, but it could lose a lot. Right now, Putin believes that atomic weapons will not be of any use. He thinks Russia can defeat Ukraine with standard weapons. “Almost along the entire line of contact, let’s put it modestly, our forces are improving their position,” he said at a press conference on December 14. The President also noted that Western support for Kyiv is beginning to decline. Based on this, he stated that the “freebie” that Ukraine was enjoying would soon end. And while Putin remains confident in the success of Russian troops, he is unlikely to want to rock the boat by increasing the escalation.

However, the president may not always be in this mood. If the West manages to maintain sustained support for Ukraine in the form of funding and arms supplies while Kyiv tries to retake territory occupied by Russian troops, Putin may decide that he cannot win through a conflict of attrition. If, on top of everything else, Western economic sanctions finally begin to have a strong negative impact on the Russian economy, the Kremlin may conclude that time is against it. The Russian president may decide to double down instead of waiting for Ukraine to run out of steam. At this point, real escalation can begin.”