Translated material
Bottlement
Even with the support of the bots, supporters of the continuation of them were in the minority. Whose opinion is referred to by the propagandists, and who are the deputies then - maybe also bots? The results of one telegram-survey
Peter Sarukhanov / "New Gazeta"
Since 1993, only one nationwide referendum has been held in Russia - about the “abrasion” of terms and constitution. This happened in a quarantine year and "on stumps."
But to give democratic visibility, the authorities arranged a countless number of various small referenda. In what color to paint the curbs, where to put a bus stop? Is it to cut down a hogber or let him this year? However, the authorities never asked people on any of those questions that change their lives.
For example, increase or not increase the retirement age. For example, whether to start a special military operation in Ukraine or not to start. And since they started - to continue or stop a special military operation, which is soon two years old?
It does not offer the authorities to decide on any of these issues.
But gives answers. For people. Rather, on behalf of a certain “majority”, which, as propaganda assures, supports all the undertakings of the authorities: political repressions, and a ban on abortion in private clinics, and censorship, partial mobilization, and the militarization of life, and the actual abolition of freedom of assembly and expression of their own opinion, and the closure of independent media.
Yes, the power recognizes, there is a minority, but it, according to General General Gurulev, should simply be destroyed.
Is everything like that with most/minority? Or is it all a phantom, in the subject existence of which the authorities convinced themselves and tries to convince the Russians so that they do not ask unnecessary questions and fully feel the inability to at least somehow affect their lives?
Big survey "New"
On December 14 , a large survey of Novaya Gazeta was completed, which we called for ourselves the first digital referendum. We conducted it among users of telegram. In our country, by different estimates, approximately 70 million people.
The question was one, he touched his one.
The answer options are two:
You have to continue. We need victory.
It must be stopped. We need peace.
The survey was conducted for three days. Here are its results.
More than 440 thousand views in coverage received a post with a proposal to vote.
More than 241 thousand votes are taken into account in the survey.
Results without analysis of a bot traffic:
34% (82,888 votes) - you need to continue. We need victory.
66% (158 983 votes) - must be stopped. We need peace.
If we analyze the bottleneck, then from the number of people voted for the option “they must continue. We need victory ”It is necessary to take away 49,000 suspicious votes. That is half .
REFERENCE
How voted and as we thought
By the end of the first day of the vote , 52 thousand users were distributed as follows:
33% - continue;
67% - stop.
The second day ended more dramatic:
41% - continue;
59% - stop.
The number of voting is already more than 178 thousand.
An anomaly in the vote for the position “must continue”, similar to the bot-atak, was discovered on the second day, December 12, at 8:15 Moscow time, its action continued until 13:15 Moscow time.
Signs of bots
The sharp beginning and end of the anomaly
The volume of “stuffing” per unit time goes in equal portions: at the beginning of the attack - 2500 votes for every 5 minutes, in the middle of about 1000, at the end - about 500. And then the vote returns to normal - 10 votes in 5 minutes, or 2 votes per minute.
... But we were able to explain all the anomalies when voting for the position “We must stop”.
To do this, we opened the public service of TGSTAT and compared anomalies over time, when large TG channels mentioned our survey. You can repeat these steps.
Alexey Venediktov*, Sota, Alexey Pivovarov* (editors), Maxim Katz* and others talked about our survey on the first day, directly influencing the voting course. On the second day, significant anomalies at the voices did not happen for this position, although the calls were to vote: “and Graham struck”, “Khodorkovsky*” (see Fig.).
How many were thrown
At the beginning of the casting of the votes there were 19,981 (rounded up to 20,000).
At the end of the casting of the voices, there were 71,076 (rounded up to 70,000).
The difference is about 50,000 votes.
At the same time, ordinary people also voted - within normal limits, that is, about 2 votes per minute. Therefore, in 5 hours the anomaly was fed: 60 minutes * 5 hours * 2 votes per minute = 600 votes.
Thus, approximately 49,000 suspicious votes were presented for the option “you need to continue”. This is half of all the votes for this option.
We foresee the main reproach - this is not a representative sample.
We answer. From the point of view of “pure” sociology - maybe yes. But taking into account the number of voted, comparable to the number of participants in conventional field and telephone polls, the results quite allow us to draw conclusions and track trends.
What do other sociological services tell us? If we take a survey conducted by the Levada Center*, then 64% of young Russians advocate peace negotiations. And in total - more than half of Russians stand for this:
* 44% spoke for the beginning of peace negotiations * ,
43% - for the continuation of his.
Exactly a year ago, the State - Kremlin, as it is called, was the Sociological Service of the VTsIOM, the All -Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion under the leadership of the sociologist Fedorov, published and commented on the results of his survey: 60% of people in our country - for peace negotiations , and only 15–20%, as Fedorov says, are convinced supporters of Svo.
A year has passed. Compare with the data of our survey. The numbers are correlated.
COMMENT
We asked to evaluate the results of our survey of sociologists of the Independent Project Russian Field
- Probably the first thing the sociologist should say is, unfortunately, we cannot relay the results of the survey throughout Russia. Nevertheless, a specific audience is present in Telegram: according to our data, about 55% of Russians use a telegram, receives news about the course of a military operation from the messenger - a quarter of all respondents. And most importantly, the older generation (60+) is almost not represented in Telegram, and people of this age make up 30% of the total population of Russia. Therefore, judging and comparing the numbers is not entirely correct.
But the main thing, as it seems to us that such large -scale polls show is that the position for the world has great public support. Often they want to show this group that it is in the minority, and this demoralizes and disrupts. Thanks to such projects, you can see that there are many like -minded people. Judging by this survey, then almost two hundred thousand!
Results and questions
In any case, certain results can be summed up, conclusions and ask some questions.
The anti -war position won.
She won, despite the stuffing. People are stronger than propaganda technologies.
When propagandists say that the vast majority of Russians - for the continuation of a special military operation, they lie.
The current government all the time appeals to a certain majority, which, as for some reason begins to seem, she came up with. This, probably, explains the contradiction that is familiar to many. They say that there is a majority that supports his own, but among their friends and even people who were met by accident, they cannot be found.
Maybe this is the majority - not people, but bots?
Then whom do deputies of the State Duma represent - bots? In any case, in the Duma, for some reason, no one reflects the interests of 60% in our survey and 66% of the VTsIOM survey-those who advocate peace negotiations.
In fact, in Russian society there is a serious request for the world. There is a huge request for us to move on to a peaceful, not a mobilization existence in relations with the world. And in a relationship with each other.
Let's fix this result of the year.
Thanks to our colleagues, our friends and our opponents whose media resources participated in the survey. We were not alone. The peculiar polling stations were opened in the Novaya Gazeta, on the channel of Alexei Venediktov*and deputy Boris Vishnevsky, with Alexei Pivovarov*and at Dmitry Gudkov*, at Maxim Katz*, Lev Schlosberg*, Mikhail Khodorkovsky*. Supported the survey by Vladimir Pastukhov*, Channel Ksenia Sobchak. Media, representing different views and different audiences, fulfilled their role - they gave a wide range of people the opportunity to speak out.