"Divided Ukraine" and "USA against themselves"

10 main global risks of 2024 - according to Time magazine

The Time magazine published an article by a political scientist and international relations expert Yana Bremer , entitled “10 main global risks of 2024”. According to Bremmer, the main risks for the world will remain two ongoing war - Russia with Ukraine and Israel with Hamas, but a new confrontation that the political scientist described as "the war of the United States with himself" will be added to them.

"USA against itself"

As Bremmer notes, although the United States remains an exceptionally powerful state of military and economic terms, the political system in the country is now more “dysfunctional” than anywhere among developed democracies. According to the political scientist, the presidential campaign in 2024 will only aggravate the political split in the country and undermine the authority of the United States at the international level. “In the world covered by the crisis, the prospect of Victory [Donald] Trump will weaken the US position, since the allies and opponents of the country will try to insure from its probable policy,” Bremmer believes.

"The Middle East is on the verge"

According to Bremmer, in 2024 the fighting in the gas sector will not only not stop, but the probability of developing the conflict into a wider regional war, including direct involvement of the United States and Iran, will also appear. In particular, the political scientist notes, one of the most likely ways to escalation may be the decision of Israel or the Lebanese Hizballla to attack each other, as well as an increase in the number of attacks on the US base from the Yemenic Husites supported by Iran. According to Bremmer, in fact, none of the parties wants to grow the conflict, but “the gunpowder is already dry, and the number of players with matches is large,” which increases the risk of escalation.

"Separated Ukraine"

According to Bremer, the invasion of Ukraine remains a “historical failure” for Russia-due to sanctions, the entry of Finland and Sweden to NATO, as well as the refusal of Europe from Russian energy resources. However, in the coming year, the political scientist notes, Ukraine will be “de facto divided”, and Russia has an initiative on the battlefield and a material advantage.

2024 is a turning point in the war: if Ukraine does not solve its personnel problems in the near future, will not increase the production of weapons and does not develop a realistic military strategy, its territorial losses may remain - and even increase. Kyiv was seriously injured from reducing political and material support from the United States, and the prospects for obtaining European assistance are only a little better. Ukraine desperately needs additional troops.

According to the political scientist, because of these reasons, Kyiv in 2024 may go to great military risks, including blows on more and more goals in Russia, which will cause the “unprecedented reaction” of Moscow and can draw NATO into a conflict.

Among other global risks of the year, Bremmer called the development of artificial intelligence systems, which is actually not lending to any political control, serious problems in China’s economy and a possible slowdown in the whole world against the backdrop of high interest rates, the next appearance of El Nino -as well as the possible appearance of Russia-North Korea-Iran, within which these countries “will strengthen each other's potential and act in increasingly more and more more than more coordinated and destructive manner in the world arena. "

Separately, Bremmer identified three questions that excite observers around the world, but, in his opinion, at the moment they do not carry global risks. This is the situation around Taiwan and the relationship between the United States and China - the year will be “restless” for bilateral relations, however, according to the political scientist, against the backdrop of the internal problems of Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, they came to the conclusion that cautious interaction will be more profitable for both countries. Bremer also does not believe that the local victories of European populists in the election will undermine the unity of the European Union, and that after the recent expansion of BRICS, under the leadership of China, it will become a serious competitor to the “Big Seven”.