A step away from the release

What conclusions can be drawn now about the collapse of the IL-76 near Belgorod? Comment by Yulia Latinina

On the morning of January 24, the military transport Il-76 crashed near Belgorod. After that, two news appeared almost simultaneously. “Ukrainian Pravda” said that the plane was shot down by Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners and that he was transporting missiles for the S-300, and the Russian Defense Ministry said that 65 Ukrainian prisoners, who were taken to exchange, were on board the aircraft. After that, the phrase that it was “their work”, that is, the work of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, disappeared from the article in Ukrainian Pravda.

On the evening of January 24, the General Staff of Ukraine said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to "take measures to destroy the means of delivery, control over airspace to destroy a terrorist threat, including the Belgorod-Kharkov direction." Neither the Ukrainian General Staff nor the GUR, however, officially confirmed that the prisoners were indeed on the plane. From informal sources, I know that the exchange was canceled with the words “you shot down the side” immediately after it crashed.

The Russian side claims that there were two aircraft with prisoners. One flew from Zhukovsky, the other from Taganrog. The missiles were launched through both, but since the complex who shot at them was at the limit of range, one of the planes left the defeat zone, survived and sat in Taganrog. The exchange was supposed to occur 192 to 192.

From what is known by this moment, it can be assumed that there were two aircraft with prisoners. They flew from Zhukovsky to Belgorod. The missiles were launched through both, but since the complex who shot at them was at the limit of range, one of the aircraft left the defeat zone and survived. He sat in Taganrog. The exchange was supposed to be 192/192.

It is worth noting that 250 people can be loaded in the silt, so why the prisoners were transported by two aircraft is incomprehensible.

It is possible that, in addition to prisoners, some other military cargo, the same missiles flew on an airplane.

The area from which the blow was struck - the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation claims that this is the village of Liptsa near Kharkov - this is not the Patriot positioning area; It is clear that he is not based there, but he could specially come.

On the eve of Ukraine, a 41 rocket was struck. Including the Su-34, two X-59 were launched from under Belgorod, a little further than the destruction site.

Armed Forces could arrange an ambush to military aircraft. This would be quite consistent with the operations that the Armed Forces of Ukraine has recently been conducting. They secretly bring Patriot to the area in which they expect the appearance of a Russian military aircraft, and strike. So, in particular, the An-50 was destroyed and the IL-22 was damaged.

Here analogies with MN-17 beg, but in fact the situation is significantly different.

If the plane was really shot down using Patriot, it is worth noting that it was shot down in the combat area. Civil flights are prohibited there, planes sat down at the military airfield, and these were military transporters from among those who were repeatedly seen in the transportation of the same missiles or “Shahdov”. It was an absolutely legitimate military goal.

The Russian side did not warn the Armed Forces that two aircraft would fly and take prisoners, and, in general, was not obliged to do this: this is a military flight across the territory of the Russian Federation.

Of course, you can imagine that it was a tricky plan: to substitute the board with prisoners under the blow of Ukrainian air defense. However, this is unlikely. Patriot is the main goal for Russian missiles, they are constantly aiming at it, and not a single one has managed to hit him. If the Russian side knew that under Belgorod on the other side of the border there was a Patriot, then its main goal would not to set up Il with prisoners under his blow, but to destroy this Patriot, which was so close to the border.

This is a monstrous tragedy. We can only imagine ourselves in the place of these people who have experienced so much in Russian captivity and were literally a step away from liberation.

The material is updated at 21:12 January 24