In the ring there will be the same

Trump and Biden defeated the primaries in New Hampshire, and, apparently, they will be waiting for a match in the presidential election

Having won the initial elections in the state of New Hampshire, Donald Trump took a confident step to get the nomination of the presidential candidate at the coming in the mid-July Congress (Conference) of the Republican Party of the United States. If you believe in historical experience, the Republican candidate who won the first two states-Aiove and New Hampshire should win at the congress.

Trump reminded his supporters of this: "We are not going to become the first to lose." Before Trump, only the current presidential presidents won the first two primary elections.

When Trump with a record margin of 30 percentage points won coks in Aiov, his rivals refused the struggle for the White House - Governor of Florida Ron landing, businessman Vivec Ramasva and others, including senator from Southern Carolina Tim Scott. Former applicants not only got off the distance, but also announced the support of Trump. Especially significant was the transition to the Trump of supporters of the landing, who took 2nd place in Ayov. His headquarters spent more than $ 100 million on campaigning. Landmark decided that it was pointless to continue. In addition, 122 Republican in the House of Representatives and 26 senators from the Republican Party spoke for the return of Trump to the White House.

52-year-old Nikki Haley-a former US representative to the UN-remained the only rival on the way to the nomination. It is curious that in 2012 Tim Scott's candidacy for a vacant place in the Senate from South Carolina put forward Haley, the then Governor of the state. Thanks to her, Scott became a political figure at the federal level. And now he “thanked in full”, supporting not Haley, but Trump. “You must really hate her,” Trump joked, standing on the same stage with Scott on election day. The senator went to the microphone and answered: "I just love you." “That's why he is a great politician,” Trump said to the audience, nodding to Scott.

After the counting of 90 percent of the votes of the New Hampshire Trump, Trump gains over 54 percent of the vote, breaking away from Haley at 11 points.

He receives from this state 12 votes of the delegates of the party congress, his rival - 9 (the fate of the last mandate for this moment is unknown).

Most observers believe that Haley has only ghostly chances. She needs to win the primaries in her native state of South Carolina on February 24. She was there as the governor of two terms, but the surveys are also for Trump. For several months, the former president was ahead of more than 30 points. If Haley loses again, it will be difficult to continue the fight and find money for the campaign.

After New Hampshire, republican politicians, functionaries, ordinary activists offer to rally around Trump, despite the fact that four trials are being conducted against him, 91 charges of violation of the laws are brought forward. For Trump, “Getting from the distance”, Nikki Kheli would avoid expensive expenses for the so-called super-on March 5, when primary elections will be held in 15 states and one “overseas territory”.

Haley has not yet surrendered. Her election headquarters spent more than 71 million dollars, and, according to official figures, 99.9 percent of these funds were sent to Aiova and New Gampshire. According to New York Times, in New Hampshire she did everything she could: she poured beer and held babies in her arms, rushed throughout the state with the governor-republican Chris Sunun (he is the only one of the governors who supported Haley). For Trump-already 11 governors-republicans. Nevertheless, “this race is still far from the end,” she said to her supporters, noting that Trump's nomination would mean the inevitable victory in the November elections of Joe Biden, which, in her opinion, means “Kamaly Harris's presidency”. As Haley noted: "The most poorly guarded secret in politics is how much the Democrats want to run against Donald Trump."

“They know that Trump is the only Republican in the country that Joe Biden can defeat.”

After the announcement of the results, Haley managed to speak first. While she was talking, Trump wrote several messages on social networks, calling the opponent’s speech “Bredova”. Then, already on the stage, he did not spare the colors, calling Haley a “impostor”, which was a speech, as if she had won, although she had a “very bad night” and “she was very well broken.” He deliberately distorted the name of the rival in social networks (the real name given at birth - Nimarat Randhava) and even indulged the theories of the conspiracy that she could not be elected because she was the daughter of Indian immigrants (although Haley was born in America).

Well, this is already a repeat. Obama was also accused of having a fake birth certificate. The 77-year-old Trump, who was a quarter of a century older than the rival, confused Haley with the former speaker Pelosi in the heat of the polemic, calling her Nancy. Now Haley and Biden recall it to him. Haley, speaking about the prospect of the “Match-Rarens” of two elderly politicians-Biden and Trump, emphasizes: “The first party that will resign its 80-year-old candidate will become a party that will win this election.”

Perhaps that would be so.

Polls show that in popularity, Haley is ahead of Biden by an average of 10 percent. The problem is that surveys are a speculative thing. In reality, not a single party wants to abandon its "supernships".

Joe Biden also won the primaries in New Hampshire, but purely symbolic. Having gained almost 55 percent of the vote, the president did not receive a single mandate of 23 state delegates who should participate in the conference of the Democratic Party in Chicago, August 19–21. A typical, by the way, is a story showing how confusing the American elections system can be.

Pull -down, but adversarial. At the end of 2022, Biden and the National Committee of the Democratic Party decided to change the election calendar, saying that the Democrats should provide the first dates with a large racial diversity. The first primaries according to the plan were given to South Carolin - to the staff where Biden found the “second wind” in 2020, losing before that on two votes. New Gampshire was pushed into second place along with Nevada. But the local democrats, who are proud of the long-standing tradition of “being the first state in the country where they vote” (this is included in the legislation of the New Hampshire), opposed and held the initial elections within the planned time-the first.

As a measure of punishment, Baiden officially refused to participate in the local primaries, his name was not introduced in the ballots, and the state lost his delegates at the congress (at least at the moment). So how did Biden defeat? His name was entered by the voters themselves (this is how it is possible here). And the current president overtook more than 30 points of the Congressman from Minnesota Dean Phillips, who also indicates the need to “change generations”. And in total, 21 surnames were listed in the Democrats ballots.

New Gampshire, who is called the Granite Start, this year did not amaze with surprises, but introduced his highlight to the elections.

“Now it is clear that Donald Trump will be a candidate from the Republican Party,” Bayden said in a statement following the results of the primaries in which he thanked the voters who entered his name. “My message to the country is that the bets [in these elections] simply cannot be higher. Our democracy. Our personal freedoms are from the right to choose to the right of vote. Our economy, which has the strongest recovery in the world since Covid. ” Biden will take part in the initial elections next month in South Carolin, Nevada and Michigan.

In Nevada, there was also confusion, as a result of which there will be coks and primaries with a difference of two days, and the delegates to the congress with the right to vote will be determined according to the results of coks. The headquarters of Nikki Haley said that the conditions of the election were changed in favor of Trump. As a result, she will not be aged in this state, and the former president has already announced on Tuesday: “Our Nevada!” Trump's rating in this state, according to him, is 95 percent.

But what about the courts over Trump? - the attentive reader will ask.

• Firstly, they do not prohibit participating in the elections (we are waiting for the decision of the Supreme Court, on February 8, he is going to consider Trump's appeal to the decision of Colorado to prevent him to the primaries).

• Secondly, the former (or future?) President, we can say, “took as the basis” of his election campaign. Exactly half of his performances at rallies are charged with Biden, as well as the Ministry of Justice and the power departments that he, Trump, has a “unprecedented witch hunt” with the aim of withdrawing from the elections.

Trump also calls President Bayden a “absolute threat to democracy.” In a recent speech on the Fox News channel with Shon Hanniti, the former US president said: “He [Biden] is very dangerous for several reasons. Firstly, it is extremely incompetent. [The second] people who surround him are very bad people ... They are young, they are smart, they are communists, they are Marxists, they are fascists, and they govern this country. ”

He complains half the time that he became a victim of political persecution, and devotes the other half to populist (and popular among his “nuclear electorate”) ideas:

• move troops from foreign bases to the protection of the Mexican border;

• conduct a global deportation of illegal immigrants and deprive them of the children born in the USA, an American passport;

• again prohibit the entry into America to representatives of individual "unreliable" countries (Muslim);

• cancel the Obamaker - the Law on Compulsory Medical Insurance;

• reduce the bureaucratic state apparatus;

• reduce taxes (but simultaneously reduce public debt);

• as difficult as possible abortion;

• Arrange teachers in schools to prevent "jokes";

• in 24 hours to deal with the “problem of Russia and Ukraine”;

• revise relations with NATO;

• “Stop and punish” the Chinese business acting in relation to the United States “dishonest and aggressive”;

• To get out of the climatic cooperation program again.

The list is long. I note that experts believe that such radical promises are waiting, like 8 years ago, a wave of resistance (from court claims to sabotage of the state apparatus) - the “deep state” will not allow the country to shake to the ground. This will not allow the state of “checks and counterweights”, the principle of separation of power.