Dwindling resources

It’s become increasingly difficult for Ukraine to repel Russian attacks, but so far, defenses are holding

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates

What we knew as of February 1, 2024

The Russian army is continuing its offensive, which it started at the end of 2023, along the entire Ukrainian front. Russian units, all the way from the Kharkiv region in the northeast to the Kherson region in the southwest, are conducting uncoordinated operations — both in terms of timing and strategy. After multi-day attacks, these units require several weeks to regain combat readiness. Once recovered, they strike again. Both the Russian and Ukrainian armies are suffering significant losses in these battles. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) are facing hardships: low ammunition, long-range kamikaze drones targeting their artillery, and multiple Russian attacks from various directions. All of this makes it difficult for the AFU command to maneuver reserves. Still, there are no signs of a breakdown in Ukrainian defense at the moment.

Avdiivka

• Russian forces near Avdiivka have shifted the main focus of their offensive from the north to the south of the city. Reportedly, Russian reconnaissance, using a specially dug tunnel over a kilometer in length, surprised a major AFU stronghold at the Tsarska Ohota recreation center in the south of Avdiivka. Russian forces were able to seize the base, entrench themselves in residential areas on the southern outskirts of the city, and successfully repel AFU counterattacks. However, the offensive appears to have run out of steam once again, and troops are regrouping, possibly in preparation for another assault.
• To the north of Avdiivka, there’s an ongoing battle for the village of Stepove. Russian forces now control a significant portion of what used to be the village, which is now mostly in ruins. However, they’re still no closer to reaching the operation’s main objective: encircling Avdiivka.

Kupiansk

• In early January, Russian troops unsuccessfully tried to take the village of Synkivka to the northeast of Kupiansk. However, the Ukrainian army also incurred significant equipment losses while waging counterattacks on the northern outskirts of the village. Now, the Russian army is trying to bypass the village by going through the forests to the west of it.
• At the same time, Russian forces are trying to advance toward Kupiansk from the southeast. They’ve captured the village of Krokhmalne and reportedly, although there is currently no visual confirmation, the neighboring village of Tabaivka. The Ukrainian command denies the loss of Tabaivka and the surrounding elevated positions. It seems unlikely that the Russian army will have enough strength to break through to Kupiansk in a single operation. The Russian Armed Forces will likely soon enter a “regrouping” phase here in preparation for a new offensive.

Bakhmut

• The Russian army’s offensive between the cities of Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar has come to a halt, as expected. Further progress would require Russian troops to attack elevated Ukrainian positions, which requires significant superiority in troops and resources. It seems the Russian formation currently lacks the resource advantage necessary to break through to Chasiv Yar and the city of Kostiantynivka.
• At the same time, Russian troops have launched a surprise offensive to the north of Bakhmut and the city of Soledar, capturing the village of Vesele and advancing several kilometers toward Siversk.

Marinka

• After capturing the city of Marinka, the Russian army came up against new Ukrainian defensive lines. In recent weeks, they’ve made minimal progress toward the west (into the village of Heorhiivka) and to the south (toward the village of Pobieda). Russian troops have only managed to occupy the outskirts of Heorhiivka.

Velyka Novosilka and Orikhiv directions

• The Russian army is attempting to reverse gains made by the AFU in the south during Ukraine’s summer and fall offensive. Russian troops have launched attacks near the village of Pryiutne, which lies on the border of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, not far from Velyka Novosilka. The Russian army is trying to capture the elevated regions to Pryiutne’s north (near Rivnopil and Novodarivka). If the operation is successful, all Ukrainian forces south of Velyka Novosilka will find themselves in a difficult position.
• Russian troops are also continuing attacks near the Orikhiv bulge, which lies between the liberated village of Robotyne and the still Russian-controlled villages of Verbove and Novoprokopivka. In recent weeks, the Russian army has made little progress here; however, it’s possible the Russian command is preparing for a new, more powerful offensive in this region.

Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to reports@meduza.io. Thank you!