As a preferential mortgage has turned into a trap, the Nadezhdin campaign continues, China Kristoroleva saves Binance

One of the most defiant distortions in the Russian economy is a bubble in the mortgage market, which has grown due to the program of preferential loans for housing since 2020. This week, the TPB summed up the results of 2023: the mortgage market grew by 60%, and more than half of the loans had to be a preferential mortgage. The mortgage bubble increases housing prices, loads the budget with trillion expenses and works on an increase in inequality: all taxpayers finance the purchase of apartments by those who can afford a loan. This summer, the program should end, but the war made the question politically complicated: the main recipients of loans were the security forces and the military who earn in the war.

What's happening

This week, TPB summed up the results of the banking sector - and stated another record in the mortgage market. In total, in 2023, banks issued 2 million mortgage loans in the amount of 7.8 trillion rubles ($ 92 billion). This is 1.6 times more than in 2022, and 2.8 times less than in 2019-the last year before the government began to massively distribute preferential mortgage loans to Russians.

According to the results of 2023, most of (60.8%, or 4.7 trillion rubles) issued mortgage loans were on the preferential programs. And this share grew rapidly all year: in December, as follows from the statistics of the Central Bank, it already amounted to 83.4%. Compared to 2022, the volume of issuing a preferential mortgage doubled.

In total, in Russia, there are now seven programs for the allocation of mortgage loans with state support to citizens. Most of them are targeted: for families with young children, military, IT specialists, residents of remote regions. But the most large -scale program is non -dimensional: according to it, the state subsidizes mortgage loans for the purchase of apartments in new buildings for everyone at 8% - exactly half the key rate of the Russian Central Bank. This program was introduced in the spring of 2020 as a temporary stimulating measure at the peak of economics closing due to pandemia Covid-19. Everyone forgot about the pandemic for a long time, but the program remained.

The Bank of Russia began to oppose the extension of the preferential mortgage program a few months after its introduction in 2020, but so far the government extended it annually. Another deadline, when the program should be extended or canceled, on July 1, 2024.

What they argue about

The last round of the dispute between the Central Bank and the government about the fate of the preferential mortgage began last fall and still has not subsided. Both the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance advocate curtailing mass programs (primarily a preferential mortgage of 8%) and the transition to targeted ones. But those interested to extend the program of developers-a powerful lobby in the government, led by one of the new favorites of Putin, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin.

Mortgage subsidies are beneficial to banks and developers. But, firstly, due to the increase in the key rate, they increase budget expenditures: when the program was introduced in 2020, the state guaranteed the borrower a mortgage at 6.5% at the rate of the Central Bank of 6%; Now - at 8% at the rate of the Central Bank 16%. According to the Ministry of Finance, the extension of preferential mortgage programs for two years would cost a budget of 1 trillion rubles.

And secondly, in the current form, the program obviously works for the growth of inequality in society. Only relatively wealthy people who can accumulate a preferential mortgage can allow themselves to be accumulated (until recently amounted to 15% of the cost of the apartment) and maintain payments. “And other taxpayers who do not use these benefits pay for mass preferential programs,” Elvira Nabiullina said this week. Simply put, as part of a non -dimensional mortgage program under 8%, VAT payers, including the poorests who spend all eating income, subsidize the mortgage for part of the middle class.

Compromising decision

Another problem is that more than 60% of borrowers on mortgages give more than half of their income for loans. The security forces, state employees and other “participants of the Swar” received access to preferential programs. Having lost this source of income, it will be extremely difficult for them to serve loans, especially in conditions of rising prices.

In the fall of 2022, the government, which was not ready to cancel the preferential mortgage, made a compromise decision: the program conditions were tightened by increasing the initial contribution for borrowers from 15% to 20%, and banks by 1 percentage of They reduced the subsidy from the state so that the budget saves a little. Banks decided to compensate for the losses at the expense of developers. Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank and Rosbank (occupy about 80% of the market) decided to issue a mortgage from their accredited developers from January 2024 and introduced a commission for issuing loans for them.

Banks complain that tightening the regulation of preferential loans makes them disadvantageous. According to Sbering, in July 2023, before all changes, the pure interest margin when issuing a loan according to state programs was only 0.6%. But as a result of a decrease in government subsidies for banks and new requirements of the Central Bank, the margin of the preferential mortgage has become negative - minus 1.2%. The Central Bank has a diametrically opposite position: according to the director of the banking regulation department of Alexander Danilov, to tighten the rules, the profitability of these loans for banks was 20% and now remains positive.

In general, the banking sector finished 2023 in a fat plus. The net profit of banks amounted to a record 3.3 trillion rubles - 16 times more than in 2022.

What next?

The validity of the program of preferential mortgage expires on July 1, 2024. Until now, the government has extended it every year, but this year, it seems, everyone is still tuned to the fact that there will be no new extension. During the “direct line” in December, Vladimir Putin promised to extend only the largest targeted program - a family mortgage.

The main lobbyist of the program, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin at the end of December, said that the government would offer to extend the non-duds program in certain regions with imprisonment. “We will not extend the preferential mortgage for the whole country, it completed its function,” he assured. However, the Ministry of Finance also confidently talked about the termination of the program and in the fall of 2022 - but a month later Vladimir Putin extended it for another one and a half years.

What am I to me?

The folding of preferential mortgage programs, most likely, will force developers to introduce less housing, after which the construction will cease to be one of the main drivers of economic growth, which it is now.

The preferential mortgage also has an important social side effect: in 2023, a new middle class structure finally took shape in Russia. Now it consists of the military, employees of the special services and other "dependents" of the state, whose income is associated with the war and police functions. A significant part of this new “middle class” is now participants in mortgage lending programs. The high payments that these categories of the population receive are driven into a trap: they will have to be preserved, even if the budget’s incomes deteriorate, since a sharp loss in money - all the more in social groups with combat experience and access to weapons - is able to provoke undesirable consequences for the regime.

The author of the article is an invited researcher at the German Council for International Affairs (DGAP) and the Berlin Center of Carnegie Alexander Prokopenko, especially for The Bell

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