Dmitry Mikhailichenko - about the discontent of the outback

Political scientist Dmitry Mikhailichenko writes what to expect from the message of the head of state:

“The echo of the January utility accidents is gradually fading and against this background, an unspoken moratorium on making unpopular decisions on the eve of the presidential elections is noticeable. The information field has been stabilized.

It is also noticeable how the number of trash statements from various deputies and other scrappers is decreasing. <…> Refusal to terrorize citizens and socio-psychological calm are a significant resource that remains in the arsenal of the country’s leadership.

<…> The main meaning of the soon-to-be-expected Message from the head of state is, after all, foreign policy. In many ways, 2024 will be decisive in terms of further confrontation between Russia and the West and the course of the Northern Military District. <…>

The upcoming message from the head of state is expected to be meaningful in terms of incentive measures that will be aimed at strengthening the loyalty, first of all, of citizens with low and medium incomes. Sociology of recent years clearly shows that those most protesting and dissatisfied now are residents of the regional periphery and, above all, the poor. <…>

Local problems, as well as international and economic ones, can serve as a significant detonator of protest. <…> The Russian hinterland has already reached such a state that such issues as corruption or the arbitrariness of officials do not touch it too much. And negativity (and uncontrolled) and protests are possible due to ethnic and religious factors, as well as the high cost of food and essential goods. <…>

At the same time, the stage of accumulation of contradictions continues and, one way or another, this array can be regulated either by increasing economic efficiency or by using force. Both resources are actively used, but the bias towards one of them is obvious.”