Banan of the last hope

About the military “Think Tanks” and about the situation in the world armament market. Russia has problems with both of Russia. The opinion of the military observer "new"

In early February, it was announced the creation of the Higher School of Economics at the Faculty of World Economy and World Policy (with the presentation of the scientific director of the faculty of Sergei Karaganov) of the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy. It is assumed that this will be independent of the Ministry of Defense and related structures by the research center. Retired Admiral Sergei Avakyants , a former commander of the Pacific Fleet, was appointed its director.

With all ritual turns about the sovereign path of Russia in a state of global war with the collective West, the description of the tasks of the newly -made cerebral center differs little from the tasks that the Western Think Tanks in this area solve. Although special emphasis is on the analysis of the military-political situation in Central Asia, in the first place in research will traditionally be strategic deterrence, the influence of military operations on the life of society and the development trends of international relations.

Until now, Russia is not rich in such research organizations that could claim influence in the development of foreign policy. We can recall the "National Research Institute of the World Economy and International Relations named after E.M. Primakova of the Russian Academy of Sciences ”(IMEMO RAS) and gravitating to MGIMO PIR Center . Thus, the Higher School of Economics made an application for participation in the discussion.

However, there are still no signs that the materials (often quite conscientious) employees of such centers at least somehow affect the Putin government.

Yes, many of their employees participate in the engaged Valdai forum. Yes, their opinions echo with the ideas of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, but there are no independent votes.

Nevertheless, the emergence of new places where an alternative view of the military sphere can form, you should not ignore. No matter how anyone imagined the “beautiful Russia of the future,” I still have not met the opinion that she would not have an army. And for the company, it is important that the official opinion of the Ministry of Defense, the General Staff and the Security Council will be opposed by the authorities receiving salaries in another place.

What should the general be in the future army of Russia? If we want to have sober and smart commanders, then they should always have an alternative - the opportunity to continue his career outside the army.

It is well known that in a military machine you can express your objections at a meeting, but then you need to comply with the order. And most often he does not take into account the objections expressed - the authorities in all armies are conservative and not prone to changes.

The military leaders can only stop or defend their views outside the army or in alliance with political forces that have an influence on military policy. In the NATO countries, the doors of “brain centers”, commercial consulting companies, finally, are opened to retirement generals and admirals, and finally they can continue their career in political parties, where specialists are always needed - in case of coming to power through the elections. The number of retired pilots, sailors, astronauts and paratroopers with large epaulettes in the same United States is large. They give through their research an independent assessment of the country's military construction and foreign policy.

But the main thing is different:

The more for high -ranking military capabilities it is worthy to get “on a civilian”, the bolder they defend their point of view in the service.

And the highest command is more carefully considering alternative options. After all, the lack of alternative opinions too often leads to defeat and even a military disaster, since sometimes completely obvious circumstances are not taken into account.

All these reasoning may seem like a pure theory. In Russia, civil society has traditionally paid the main attention to the protection of the rights of military personnel: at first, the main trouble was seen in the grandfather, later in military crime. But all these were peacetime passions. It never occurred to anyone that a mediocre commander could cause much more terrible events. After all, professional unsuitability is not a crime, we will not find it in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation.

Those who doubt, I refer to the history of Colonel Friedrich von Tsillergut from the head of "Disaster", "The adventures of the brave soldier Schweik":

“... It was strange how this idiot could quickly move in the service and enjoy the protection of very influential persons, a corps general, for example, who favored the colonel, despite the complete mediocrity of the latter. On the maneuvers, the colonel performed miracles right: he did not keep up with anywhere and drove the regiment with columns against machine guns. ”

Columns against machine guns are a frame from the film “Chapaev”, invented by the directors of the Vasilyev brothers, the attack of the officer regiment against the Anga machine-machine gunner.

You can laugh at the movie heroes, but those who wish to find examples of other “exploits” in two accounts in two accounts.

Therefore, both human rights and adequate military construction in the "beautiful Russia of the Future" are important in the same way. The lack of an alternative, but, first of all, soberly glance at the military-political sphere gives rise to mistakes that our modern history is so rich in. We turn to the most fresh example.

Last week, Equador announced that he would transfer the entire Russian military equipment in the amount of more than $ 200 million that he has. Since it is forbidden to transfer such equipment under the terms of the foreign trade contract, Ecuador authorities resorted to the trick - the president of Noboa without the revaluation procedure enrolled in the Soviet and Russian weapons to the scrap metal category. It is clear that scrap metal cannot cost $ 200 million, although this, of course, is not new systems.

It is planned that after the repair, this weapon will be transferred to the Americans by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The most important positions are 10 air defense systems, five Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopters, 18 BM-21 Grad MLRS. The same proposals were sent to the United States to Nicaragua, Colombia and Venezuela. So far, only the Ecuador agreed. In return, the United States promise to convey the army of Ecuador modern weapons.

Moscow answered instantly, but - how! Using the unique position of the Ecuador in the foreign trade balance: 20% of the import of bananas and more than half of the carnation goes to Russia - their purchases from the largest suppliers were stopped .

Next in line is the stopping of pineapple trading. The total loss of Ecuador is estimated at more than $ 800 million per year. At the same time, the president of Noboy is the largest banana planter.

In fact, it is counter -sanctions. However, behind this foreign trade scandal lies a whole process gaining strength. The fact is that NATO and Russia countries adhere to completely different politicians in the weapon trade.

In the Russian Federation, the production of all types of weapons was sharply increased. Many factories really work in three shifts. From the very beginning, from the very beginning, from both sides, he began to devour military equipment with echelons per week from the very beginning. The consumption of long -range fire lesions can be approximately calculated - data on the amount of winged and ballistic missiles used from time to time are published by the General Staff. According to these reports,

Everything that the defense industry is sent to the front. But on the eve of February, 2022, the dew he was obliged to a number of foreign trade contracts to many countries.

Weapon trade was the pride of our politicians - it proved that Russia could produce the most modern systems, and not just sell oil and gas.

And unexpectedly, she demanded that he and what others counted on. Interruptions began. Armenia was one of the obvious victims of this situation: Pashinyan accused Russia (more precisely, JSC NGO “rafting”) of a non -resistance of the already paid weapons - the press mentioned the Smerch RZO. And the Armenian prime minister was forced to make a reservation: “We understand that Russia itself needs weapons, and we are ready to work in this direction.”

The army of Armenia is in the most difficult situation from the moment of receipt of independence, the whole society is painfully experiencing a recent military defeat. So, not from a good life, Yerevan began to look for new MLRS in India after a breakdown of supplies, which was never seen in this market segment at all. As a result, an agreement was concluded for the purchase of Piaka MLRS of a very strange caliber of 214 mm. This means that the Armenian army falls into a monopoly dependence on the Indian defense industry - no one else in the world has such a caliber, it cannot be bought in the market. Munitions are consumed, as the whole world now knows, instantly.

NATO countries pursue the exact opposite policy - all contracts concluded before 2022 are performed impeccably, the plants of Europe and the USA are shipping products that Ukraine need this way. As a result of the defense industry in Europe, the production cannot expand production, since all lines are occupied by previously paid orders. They cannot, and do not want to stop foreign trade agreements.

Therefore, NATO countries began to buy up for Ukraine around the world by the Soviet and Russian systems. But not just like that, but under the promise in the near future to replace this weapon with modern NATO standard systems.

Such proposals have been made more than once by India - our old partner in the field of military procurement.

And now the Director General of Rosoboronexport Mikheev is forced to urgently refute in the statement for RIA Novosti information on disrupting the supply of air defense systems S-400 India: the contract is executed within the terms agreed by the parties.

In the super -profitable weapons markets, where there is a continuous cynical and cruel competition, often without rules, for the defense complex of the West, this is a win -win policy: if standards will be replaced by traditional markets in the world (calibers, radio engineering frequencies, maintenance rules, and so on), the Russian defense industry will not be able to return there. In the best case, you will have to start a lot from scratch. In conditions when the authority of the Russian Federation was staggered as a reliable supplier of high -quality and relatively inexpensive weapons, it would be necessary to be an idiot so as not to take advantage of the situation. The American and European defense industry did not miss their own, and it would be strange to expect another.

This process can be described as follows: the more Soviet ones (which are mostly armed with the Armed Forces of Ukraine) and Russian weapons die on Ukrainian fronts, the more it is bought in developing countries and former allies of the USSR, thus freeing a place for American and European weapons. If the world reserves of Soviet and Russian weapons systems are radically losing weight in this process or will be completely devastated (although today it is difficult to imagine), the Triumph of the OPC of NATO countries will come.

And in this case, no bananas will save Russian trade.

Sales of American weapons in 2023 reached a record level of $ 238 billion (16% more than in 2022). It is quite obvious that such a course of events was not predicted by the government, intelligence and military experts in Moscow in the fall of 2021, when the 150-thousandth contingent of the RF Armed Forces moved along the borders of Ukraine in an attempt to pressure negotiations with NATO. These maneuvers ended with a special military operation.

Neither a feast-center, nor ImoMo RAS wrote about anything like that. No one had the courage to go beyond the borders of the theses of the Valdai Forum.

In foreign countries, large, authoritative independent research centers also often make serious mistakes in assessing the foreign policy situation. But participating in national discussion, they inevitably expand the range of problems under discussion.

... I interviewed my comrades from the fleet that they can say about Sergey Iosifovich Avakianz, who now headed the structure at the Higher School. The recommendations, from the point of view of purely military, are the most complimentary: a tough professional, absolutely not inclined to change the decision already made, has never participated in any shadow agreements, except for the work, it does not want to know anything, it is useless to contact him personal requests.

But it is known that military courage is sometimes inferior to civilian. The hero, crowned with glory, often frails in front of the official. What will happen if the personal professionalism of the newly made head of the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy will come into conflict with the ideological calculations of the idea that had started all this Sergei Karaganov? Let me remind you that many recognized authorities in the field of strategic weapons actually refused Professor Karaganov in professionalism, including on the pages of our newspaper.

Will Avakyants be able to form his personal, independent vision of the problems that he took up?

Although in any case, the director of the new military-political center will not be received in the Ministry of Defense. This has already hit for the future. Maybe then the “banana conflict” will never arise.