“Russian ambitions are not limited to the post-Soviet space.” Western media summed up the results of two years of war in Ukraine

THIS MATERIAL (INFORMATION) IS PRODUCED AND DISTRIBUTED BY THE BELL'S FOREIGN AGENT OR CONCERNES THE ACTIVITIES OF THE BELL'S FOREIGN AGENT. 18+

On the second anniversary of the war in Ukraine, Western media talked about how Russia managed to seize the initiative at enormous expense, why NATO countries fear a further escalation of the conflict with Moscow, and what has changed in the methods of warfare.

Gift for Putin

Ukraine turned out to be a “formidable adversary” that was able to liberate half of the initially occupied territory in two years of war and inflict crushing losses on the Russian army, which was superior in military potential and numbers, writes The Wall Street Journal. The Western world has also shown great resilience, especially Europe, which survived the economic shock by refusing supplies of Russian pipeline and liquefied natural gas. In pre-war 2021, Moscow provided almost half of the European Union’s needs (40%), and in 2023, according to analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights, this share dropped to 13%. On top of that, European countries continue to incur costs to help Ukraine - just this month the EU agreed on a new package worth $54 billion, despite Hungary's objections.

But given the current disagreements within the United States, Vladimir Putin’s bet on a split in Western society appears to be paying off. Two years ago, providing financial support to Ukraine was unconditionally considered part of US national security interests, but now it has become one of the main topics of bitter disputes between the Democratic and Republican parties in the run-up to the presidential election. The number of those who doubt the need to confront the Kremlin and “admire Putin” is growing , especially among Republicans, while the Ukrainian military is increasingly warning about an acute shortage of ammunition.

The point is not only that American assistance has decreased, but it has decreased suddenly and without delay for adaptation for Kiev, explains former Ukrainian Defense Minister Andrei Zagorodnyuk, who advises the administration of President Vladimir Zelensky: “If this crisis is not resolved and Ukraine does not receive help, this will be a huge gift for Putin.” Although ammunition production in Europe is increasing, it is not enough to sustain the Ukrainian army in 2025, according to military analysts. Some equipment and machinery can only be provided by the United States.

Today, American and European officials are skeptical about the prospects of any peace negotiations with Russia and have no doubt that a deal cannot be reached before the end of the US presidential elections in November, the WSJ notes. The West is confident that the Kremlin has not abandoned its main military goal - to establish complete control over Ukraine. But for the United States and its allies, the stakes today are much higher than at the beginning of the war: hundreds of billions of dollars have already been transferred to help Ukraine. The support was accompanied by repeated public commitments by the top leadership of Western countries to help Kyiv “as much as needed.”

The Arithmetic of Russia's Optimism

The war in Ukraine was very costly for Russia itself, which was isolated from the West and became dependent on China. But many residents of the country who are far from the combat zone did not feel this and remain optimistic, The New York Times states . Based on various indicators, the publication gives a comprehensive picture of how Russia has changed over the two years of war.

• Everyday life. After the invasion and mass mobilization, over 820,000 people hastily left Russia, although some of them returned. For the first time in a long time, doctors began to diagnose alcoholism more often. Demand for psychologists' services increased by more than 60% in the first year of the war. International travel has fallen compared to pre-pandemic levels. But wages are rising against the backdrop of a severe personnel shortage. And Russians are improving their living conditions through preferential mortgages.
• Economy. Trade with Europe fell by about 65% after Western sanctions were imposed. The largest auto brands, including VW, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Nissan and Toyota, left Russia. Inflation has accelerated sharply. But Russia’s trade turnover with India, China and Turkey has increased. Sales of Chinese car brands are growing rapidly. There is an increase in GDP, albeit at the expense of huge military expenditures. Unemployment has fallen. More than two-thirds of Russians believe that their well-being has not changed or even improved. The Bell spoke in detail about how the Russian economy survived two years of war.

Read also: How the Russian economy survived two years of war

• Support for war. Russia persecutes opponents of the war and carries out widespread repression. The number of sentences in cases of treason has tripled. The harsh campaign against the LGBT community has intensified (the movement is recognized as extremist in Russia). The “culture of denunciations” of the Soviet era has returned. At least 20,000 Russians were punished for criticizing the war. Independent journalists were forced to leave the country, many of them receiving the status of “foreign agent”. But the share of Russians who believe that things in the country are going in the right direction rose to 71% in January - one of the highest figures in decades. The number of convicts in Russian colonies has decreased (although this is due to the fact that many were recruited to participate in the war against Ukraine).
• Human losses and material costs. At the beginning of the war, the Russian Armed Forces controlled about 27% of the territory of Ukraine, but this share decreased to 18%. For the first time in Russian history, spending on the army exceeded social spending. About 60,000 Russian troops, according to American officials, died during the war. Most Russians are not ready to support the war when it comes to conscription. However, Russian troops have achieved some success at the front, and Moscow now still controls 18% of Ukrainian territory, compared to 7% before the invasion.

Vladimir Putin's rating jumped with the start of the war and reached its highest level in the last seven years. The question of how honestly the answers were given, taking into account possible criminal liability for criticizing the actions of the authorities and other risks, remains open. Significant numbers of people welcome the war's imminent end, but many Russians are convinced that by attacking Ukraine, Russia was "defending itself against an existential threat" from the West, the article says.

Asian factor

The Washington Post draws attention to the fact that the Russian economy managed to survive two years of war thanks to China and other countries that did not join the sanctions.

This is the first geopolitical crisis that does not involve all the major Asian economies, explains historian and sanctions expert Nicholas Mulder of Cornell University. The economic power of the West no longer plays as decisive a role as it did before, while India and China are strong enough to support the Russian economy, the expert noted.

Some of the sanctioned products arrive through a number of Central Asian countries. According to the latest data, in the first 10 months of 2023, the EU exported goods to Russia worth $32 billion, compared to more than $82 billion for the same period in 2021. But at the same time, experts recorded an astronomical increase in European supplies to the countries of Central Asia - up to $31 billion from $18 billion. If, as many economists believe, the final recipient of these goods is Russia, they will compensate for about a quarter of the damage that sanctions cause to the Russian economy.

But the main assistance to Russia comes from China. By the end of 2023, foreign trade between the two countries reached a record $240 billion, up from a pre-war $147 billion. Chinese companies have filled vacancies in Russian supply chains and are sending a variety of industrial goods to the market, including lathes and equipment for semiconductor production, indicates Heli Simola, economist at the Bank of Finland Institute for the Study of Emerging Economies. However, such transactions cannot be called profitable for Russians. According to the Central Bank of Finland, prices for goods from China increased by 78% for Russian consumers compared to 2021, and by only 12% for buyers from other countries.

Türkiye, the UAE and Malaysia also remain among the Russian partners. However, experts note that in many cases Russia has to pay more for goods of lower quality.

We can repeat it

Bloomberg, on the second anniversary of the Russian invasion, assessed how it transformed military affairs.

• In modern conflict, preference is given not to tanks and aircraft, but to maneuverable drones. With their help, you can blow up a modernized tank, attack enemy troops, and also cause damage to the enemy in the rear. Inexpensive uncrewed marine vehicles (UMVs), which Ukraine used against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, also showed effectiveness. In parallel, electronic warfare equipment and systems against UAVs received impetus for development. According to industry estimates, the global drone market will reach $260 billion by 2030—almost ten times its 2021 volume.
• The split of the world into “two camps” has become more noticeable and increasingly resembles the era of bipolar confrontation that ended more than 30 years ago. It was the war in Ukraine that pushed the leadership of neutral Finland and Sweden to join NATO, but not all countries are ready to take sides. Turkey, despite its NATO membership, has not joined the sanctions against the Kremlin and is positioning itself as a mediator in the conflict.
• Unprecedented sanctions in the economic, energy, technological and other spheres have not become a universal solution to the problem. Two years later, Russia does not refuse to continue the war, and the economic collapse that Western politicians and experts predicted did not happen. This is partly due to the country's ability to circumvent restrictions or mitigate their impact. But sustaining these efforts will become more difficult as the West increasingly punishes those who help Moscow evade sanctions.
• Having your own supply chains is essential. Russia was able to quickly establish not only military production, but also supply routes for components prohibited for it through third countries. EU countries do not keep up with the production of weapons and often cannot immediately agree on assistance to Ukraine. Kyiv is beginning to increase its own production to avoid such heavy dependence on its allies, but this transition will take time.
• Everything can happen again in the future. Europe completely denied the possibility of a large-scale war in the region and did not prepare for it. About half of NATO's 31 nations are expected to bring their defense spending to the target of 2% of GDP this year - a big jump from before the war. It was not only Donald Trump’s statements about “encouraging” Russian attacks on allies that were not fulfilling their financial obligations that prompted the Europeans to change their attitude towards this. Europe really fears that Putin could unleash a large-scale war against NATO countries if he does not lose in Ukraine.

What's next

In the event of a sharp turn of events at the front in favor of Moscow, the currently emerging unofficial “pseudo-bloc” of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran will take a more confident position, warns Samuel Charap, senior researcher at the RAND research corporation: “The level of American investment in the project of Ukrainian independence has increased , which is reflected in the level of trust in the United States. And it depends on Russia’s success or failure in achieving its goals in Ukraine.”

As CNAS senior researcher Franz-Stefan Gadi notes, after the capture of Avdeevka, the Russian army was exhausted and may face supply problems, since a large amount of military equipment was damaged, and the pace of production of new ones and repair of old ones did not keep up with demand. But the Russian military compensates for this by limiting and rigidly distributing ammunition. So far, the strategy of attrition is working for Ukraine, and if Western assistance continues, the Ukrainian Armed Forces should take advantage of this to resume offensive operations, the analyst believes. “The Russian army can be defeated. But in Europe they are gradually realizing that the situation can change for the worse, and this will have huge consequences for the entire security architecture on the continent.”

Camille Grand, a former senior NATO official and fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, agrees that in recent months Europe has begun to take more seriously the threat of a Russian attack on NATO and EU countries in the event of Ukraine’s defeat: “There is a new understanding that Russian ambitions are not limited to the post-Soviet space. What is at stake in Ukraine goes far beyond the future of Ukraine itself.”

As for Russia, its economy, although it avoided a rapid and deep crisis, contrary to forecasts, risks entering a phase of overheating. The market is facing a housing bubble and there are imbalances in some industries (such as drug shortages). With a sharp collapse in oil prices, the Kremlin will face problems. If funds for the war run out, all calculations and plans will collapse. Russia may continue to fight for the foreseeable future, but its long-term economic prospects are in doubt.

According to S&P Global, Russia's revenue from oil and gas sales in 2023 exceeded $99 billion, which is almost a quarter less than a year earlier. India buys an average of 1.9 million barrels per day from Russia, although before that it was not a major importer of Russian oil, China - 2.3 million.

“He [Putin] has enough money to support the economy and the army,” emphasizes Elina Rybakova, vice president for foreign policy at the Kiev School of Economics. “This could go on for a long time.”