How Russians got used to the war and how long it will last
For two years, the war with Ukraine has become a familiar background for the lives of most Russians - but almost everyone is thinking about when it will end. A freeze in hostilities by the end of 2024, five years of smoldering conflict, or war until 2030—Verstka asked officials, senators, and sociologists in Russia about their forecasts for the world.
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“We got deep into our personal affairs”
The war with Ukraine has changed countless areas of life in Russia - from politics to agriculture, from fashion to language (remember the neologisms “grave” and “send for a Russian ship”). Nevertheless, Vorstka’s interlocutors in power tend to deny any reflection on the war. They usually agree to discuss such issues only after a few drinks on a Friday night. Most people working in politics generally refused to answer the question of whether they feel that war has become an everyday occurrence for them. “It’s bullshit,” replied one of them, a representative of the Federation Council, and interrupted the correspondence.
However, several representatives of authorities at different levels nevertheless agreed to talk about this, as one of them said, “smeared” topic. “Well, of course, we’re used to it. At first, my colleagues and I discussed this [events at the front] constantly, keeping abreast of all the news,” he says. “Now, on the contrary, we are deeply immersed in our personal affairs and work responsibilities, and we are now preparing for the presidential elections.” Among his colleagues and friends, it is not customary to discuss depression and burnout due to what has been happening over the past two years. “The mood is this: it can’t be bad for us here, because bad is about the guys at the front. It’s a shame to drink a latte in the center of Moscow and complain when they are there in the trenches: that’s how we reason. And so - well, a person adapts to everything.”
It has become fashionable in the company of an official - and he is quite young and communicates with 30-40-year-old people who earn well - to demonstratively refuse luxury, or, in any case, not to flaunt it. “More precisely, not to refuse, but to publicly make contributions to the soldiers and carry humanitarian aid. Like in Israel: if you show up in a hot spot wearing a helmet, you get respect both at work and among friends.” Many more of the interlocutor’s friends began to wear military-style clothes, he adds. And it is now secretly considered “shady” to acknowledge ties with Ukraine - be it friends who remain there, origin or past trips to Kyiv or Odessa, says a representative of the mayor’s office.
However, there is also fatigue: the official admits that the two years of war were not easy for him emotionally. “Yes, we drink cola, we buy the same clothes, and you can access Instagram via VPN,” he says. “But there’s a depressing feeling that the “special operation” will never end. That it will definitely last for a long time.” The official refuses to answer the question of when, in his opinion, the war should end. Sighs: “I wish I could.” But I wouldn’t expect it anytime soon.”
“The war doesn’t seem to concern most Russians”
During the war years, the mood in society, in general, became stable, says Denis Volkov, head of the Levada Center, in a conversation with Vorstka. “There have been only minimal changes recently, according to our data,” he said. “In the second half of 2023, fatigue grew, and this was reflected in the growing number of those in favor of peace negotiations.” The increase in the number of supporters of peace negotiations continued until November 2023 - almost until the start of Vladimir Putin’s election campaign. Then the president began speaking to the general public, including with pro-militarist speeches. “This led to a slight decrease in those who support peace negotiations - to 52%,” Volkov noted. “But even this indicator is quite stable. The number of people wishing for peace negotiations – both last year and the year before – remains at just over 50%.”
The stability of the indicators - both support for the authorities, and peace negotiations, and reluctance to make concessions - is not due to what “Russians are used to tolerating,” the sociologist believes. The main reason for this phenomenon is the enormous resources that the authorities spend on maintaining social stability. “These are efforts from stabilizing the banking system at the very beginning, when everyone ran to withdraw money, to the redistribution of resources in favor of the least well-off strata through the indexation of public sector salaries, pensions, benefits, payments to combatants, and so on,” noted the head of the Levada Center. According to him, the economy slowly recovered after the first stage of sanctions in 2014, and in the last two years there has been an accelerated adaptation through the redistribution of financial injections. However, it cannot be said that the entire population is becoming poorer. During the war years, “there even began to unexpectedly grow and a layer grew that could afford relatively expensive things - refrigerators, televisions,” says Volkov. Indicators are improving most quickly - as expected - in regions where there are defense enterprises, he added.
Another thing that helps make life in Russia sustainable is control over the media space, cleared of media that do not express a pro-government point of view. “Most people don’t follow what’s happening; they have neither the time nor the desire to understand,” Volkov said. “There is a minority who understand, and a majority who are immersed in their work and personal lives.” In Russia, this is achieved due to the fact that television is controlled by the state and “gives a monolithic picture,” and the Internet is not free from government control. “Bloggers are being bought up, independent media are being squeezed out, that is, even on the Internet the picture turns out to be not entirely alternative,” the sociologist noted. And finally, it is important that the majority of Russians are not participating in the war, he recalled. “They live their normal lives. There are border towns - well, they are out of luck. But the war doesn’t seem to concern most Russians,” the expert is convinced.
Indeed, according to the latest data, Russians are in a good mood. As the Kremlin FOM reports , 56% of respondents are in a calm mood (this is almost the highest figure for the year). 80% of respondents would not take part in protests. According to a study by VTsIOM, also associated with the Kremlin, 65% of Russians are confident in the success of the “special operation” for Russia, and almost the same number agree that we now need to live according to the principle “Everything for the front, everything for victory!” A record number of participants in the Levada Center survey - 71% - are convinced that things in the country are going in the right direction. At the same time, more than a third of Russians - 35% - noted that their standard of living has decreased over the past two years, reports Russian Field. In the same survey, half of the respondents admitted that news about the war gave them more negative than positive emotions.
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“Military products are being produced to the detriment of civilian ones”
Despite the optimistic mood, the life of the average Russian has still become more expensive, and this high cost is a direct consequence of the war and an overheated labor market, economic policy expert Alexandra Prokopenko told VERSTKA. According to her, now in Russia economic interests are completely subordinated to political ones. “Political interests mean war, so the economy is being transferred to such militarized tracks. Military products are being produced at the expense of civilian ones,” she said. — Quite strong changes have occurred in two years in the repressive apparatus, they are related to the control of people - electronic summonses, their delivery to the post office and so on, travel abroad. The priority is the war and everything connected with it, and everything else comes in second place.”
At the same time, it is difficult to say whether the Russians have gotten used to this, Prokopenko believes. “They don’t protest, they don’t go to rallies, although inflation is directly related to the war, in particular, to government spending that is directed towards military needs,” the expert argues. “It is associated with the closure of markets, with the closure of some goods, so parallel imports are developing, and this means rising prices, increased transaction costs, which are also translated into prices.” The consequence of inflation was the “egg crisis” and interruptions in the supply of chicken and other products. All this is a direct consequence of the war, sanctions and the fact that the economy is groping for a new balance, the interlocutor of “Vestka” clarified.
It is incorrect to say that the economy has switched to a military footing, the expert added, but it is being militarized, and many purely civilian enterprises are being reoriented towards military needs. “If we look at textile enterprises in Ivanovo, they are all now producing uniforms. Leather companies make shoes, and so on,” Prokopenko recalled.
“Drag it out for years, decades or even centuries”
According to one of the deputies associated with the military sphere, now the conflict in Ukraine is increasingly becoming “positional,” static and extended over time. “We’ll be doing this trench warfare for a long, long time,” he predicted. “This conflict will drag on for years, mark my words.”
Both sides of the conflict declare that they want peace, but each believes that peace is possible only on its terms, because each side considers only itself to be truly right - this is how political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov described the current state of affairs. “The issue of ending hostilities is not related to who is ultimately right and who is wrong, but to which strategy will win - a more peaceful one associated with a temporary ceasefire, or one that implies victory for one of the sides,” he stated. But freezing the conflict could drag it out for years, decades or even centuries, the expert believes. In the case of escalation, Russia can not only finally receive the already annexed regions, but also lay claim to Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk and even reach Kyiv. “But such an escalation requires the use of significant reserves, not only human, but also economic and military,” Grashchenkov noted. “So it’s not easy to implement.”
Another option, according to the political scientist, is intermediate. In this scenario, by December 2024, hostilities “will begin to gradually wind down and be minimized.” Most likely, the Ukrainian side will have to retreat and give Russia those regions that it considers annexed. “In principle, Ukraine is morally and strategically ready for this, but Russia is unlikely to launch any significant offensives on new territories in the near future,” the expert believes. “Therefore, I think that by the end of autumn 2024, hostilities could theoretically stop. But to what extent, on what conditions, for how long, and so on, is difficult to say.”
The Center for Strategic and International Studies recently described three scenarios for developments in Ukraine. Experts called them, by analogy with the famous Western, “The Good, the Bad and the Ugly.” “Good” assumes that Ukraine will recapture part or all of its territories, “bad” - that the West will refuse to help Kyiv, this will lead to collapse, “evil” - the confrontation between the two countries will continue in their current positions. In a “good” scenario, Ukraine, thanks to the help of Western countries, will be able to rearm and recover for a new offensive. In this case, it will be able to resist Russia throughout 2024 and take a “strong position” in 2025. This could push Russia into negotiations.
In the “bad scenario”, US assistance to Kyiv will completely stop or be greatly reduced. Then Ukraine will not be able to resist the advance of Russian troops, and its collapse will become “inevitable.” Then Kyiv will have to agree to peace on Russia’s terms. The “evil” scenario, which experts consider the most likely, assumes that Moscow and Kyiv will continue to carry out local attacks and launch long-range strikes, but the front line will not move.
The success or failure of Ukraine is also linked by experts from the Royal United Nations Institute for Defense Studies Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds with the help of the West - or the lack thereof. According to them, Russian forces will be able to “maintain a stable pace of attacks” through 2024, and intend to achieve success by 2026. Moscow will be able to win if “Ukraine’s international partners cannot properly provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with resources.”
The Russian authorities have no doubt that the West will soon reduce aid to Kyiv, a high-ranking federal official told VERSTKA. According to him, this is not just Moscow’s “wishes”, but internal information from military sources. The interlocutor is convinced that the United States and its allies are “extremely exhausted” by the conflict. But they don’t plan to give up yet, so the conflict with Ukraine will last another three to five years, he believes. “Then everything will move into static, and then it will completely fade away, it will just smolder,” the source believes.
A different opinion was expressed to Vorstka by one of the famous senators. When asked about the end of the war, he did not hesitate to answer that the conflict would last until 2030. “I think Putin will not leave until then,” he explained his logic. - And he is the face of the SVO. As long as Putin is in power, neither the Northern Military District will end, nor they, representatives of the West, will retreat. So we’re here for a long time.”
Illustrations: Polya Plavinskaya
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