Between evil and neutrality

In the presidential election in Slovakia, the pro -Russian candidate won. His tandem with Prime Minister Robert Fitzo will even harder Bratislava from Kyiv and Brussels

The second round of the presidential election in Slovakia will decide whether the influence of the pro -Russian Prime Minister Robert Fitzo will be able to strengthen throughout the vertical of power or the president will remain in the opposition to the head of the government.

Despite the pre-election polls that promised the projection of the pro-European ex-head of the local Foreign Ministry Ivan Korchok, in the first round he gained 42.51% of the vote. On April 6, in the second round, the former prime minister of the country and supporter of Robert Fitzo Peter Pellegrini will fight him. The result of the elections depends on how successfully the cake used anti -government protests inexpensive in the country and was able to convince at least part of the supporters to go to the side of the Slovak democratic forces, as well as Ukraine and the EU. What layouts are observed before the second round of elections in Slovakia and whether these elections are able to change something for Moscow and Kyiv, the “new newspaper Europe” was understood.

Note by the editorial office on April 8
This material was published on April 6, on the day of the second round. Later, Peter Pellegrini won the election of the President of Slovakia. According to official figures , he gained more than 53% of the vote.

Candidate of protest

Even in the 2024 lump, few could believe that almost 60-year-old ex-head of the Slovak Foreign Ministry, Ivan Kork, will ahead in the first round of the presidential election of the candidate from the ruling coalition. According to surveys a few months before, the ally of the current pro -Russian prime minister of the country Robert Fitzo Peter Pellegrini was almost 10% ahead of the competitor. But in the end, on March 23, the result turned out to be the opposite: the cake was ahead of Pellegrini with a margin of 5%.

The success of Korchok in the first round, however, was not sudden.

- He recruited his base gradually, attracting various groups in the opposition. It was also helped by the fact that he was in this election by a self-nominated person, and not from any party, ”the sociologist from the Bratislava Policy Institute, Michal Veschka , explains the new-European.

The success of Korchok in the first round was also promoted by protests, which have been going on in Slovakia for several months. The rallies began last year, almost immediately the victories of the Robert Fitzo party in the parliamentary elections. Protesters are mainly dissatisfied with the authoritarian decisions of the fitz, for example, the prime minister’s pressure on the prosecutor’s office, which investigates corruption in the power, including in relation to politicians close to the fitt.

Gradually, the internal political agenda of protests was enriched with issues of foreign policy. With the premiere of Robert, Fitzo Slovakia ceased to provide assistance to Ukraine and took an active pro -Russian position. The March meeting of the heads of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Slovakia and Russia in Bratislava ended in many thousands of protests in support of Kiev. The last action of the opposition on March 12, which five thousand people came out, began with a signal of air anxiety - as the organizer Mikhal Gvoretsky explained: "People in Ukraine hear this every day."

“Despite the fact that the protesters have not yet achieved their own, the very fact of many thousands of rallies is a clear signal that the government is not coping,” says Veschka.

Against this background, the figure of the ex-head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ivan Korchok turned out to be uniting both liberals and conservatives, disagreed with the Fitzo course,

He believes a political scientist, president of the Institute of Public Problems in Bratislava Grigory Meshezhnikov . Thus, the presidential elections in Slovakia have become for many the reason for expressing distrust of the government.

- In fact, the elections turned into a referendum on the trust of the current government. In the first round, more than 85% of the votes were divided between opposition Korchok and Fitz Pellegrini supporting the course, ”explains Meshezhnikov.

Of the remaining 15%, the former Minister of Justice and an open supporter of Russian aggression in Ukraine Stefan Garabin took the majority - he was supported by almost 12% of those who came to the polls.

Inevitable compromise

Since Slovakia, like most other EU countries, is a parliamentary republic, the president’s functions in it are rather ceremonial. His relatively significant powers include the appointment of the chairman of the Constitutional Court, the decision on pardon, as well as the opportunity to return the law already approved by the Parliament to the National Council of the Slovak Republic. But this parliament may bypass this kind of president’s veto, two -thirds of the deputies by a majority.

If the president and parliament represent different political forces, and the government coalition does not control two -thirds of the mandates, the president’s power becomes less formal. According to the results of the elections in October last year, the Fitzo party gained 23% of the vote, which, together with the coalition partners, gives him a little more than half of the mandates of deputies. It will not be so simple to achieve control over two thirds.

In the international arena of the Slovak president, for example, in comparison with the Finnish , which actually controls the country's agenda outside the EU, there are also few opportunities. Formally, the leader of Slovakia represents the country abroad, but cannot make any foreign policy decisions without agreement with parliament.

For the past five years, the Presidential Chair in Slovakia has been occupied by a pro -European environmental activist and an irreconcilable fighter with corruption of Zuzan Chaputov. After the outbreak of war, she openly supported Ukraine.

Together with the Polish President Andzha Duda Chaputov , a tour of Europe in support of Ukraine’s entry into the EU, and also signed an agreement on the transfer of weapons to Ukraine.

Chaputova enjoys serious support in the Slovak society, but did not nominate her candidacy in these elections for personal reasons.

- She decided mainly not political. It’s just tired of constantly pressure and attacks from the Government of Fitzo, ”explains Meshezhnikov.

Nevertheless, one of the last decisions of Chaputova caused a lot of controversy. After in October, the enemy of the enemy’s enemy supplies Kiev Robert Fitzo won the parliamentary elections, Chaputova did not miss the proposal of the Ministry of Defense about the new package of military assistance to Ukraine, formed during the last government. Then the representative of the president explained that in this way Chaputov did not want to create a precedent when, in anticipation of the new government, the president becomes the leader of the country, who is actually solely making decisions.

When asked whether it is worth waiting for similar compromises from Korchok, political scientist and vice president of the analytical center Globsec Alena Kudko, in a conversation with Novo-Europe, noted:

- I can’t imagine that the crust will simply sign everything that the government offers. Another question is that he will have very few real powers to change something.

There will be no support of Ukraine

One of the key issues on which today is the polarization of the Slovak society is the attitude to the war in Ukraine. Almost half of the population believes that the war began through the fault of Kiev. Both years of conflict were accompanied in Slovakia by annual inflation above 10%, and the country took 0.21% of GDP to the aid of Ukraine in 2022 - an indicator close to the American level. The new government, led by Fitzo, says that its goal is to stop the war, and for this you need to stop assisting Ukraine and begin negotiations with Russia.

In the event of the victory of Pellegrini, Kyiv should definitely not wait for support from Bratislava, Kudko believes. The Pellegrini party “Voice” is part of the ruling coalition, which means that he will support the prime minister Fitzo.

- During the campaign from Pellegrini, the narrative is moving that Ivan Korkchka is “the president of the war”. He wants to send the Slovak soldiers to the territory of Ukraine so that they fight there with Russian aggression, ”says Meshezhnikov, but immediately adds that, firstly, the Slovak president does not have such powers, and secondly, the cake himself never spoke about the desire to send the Slovak army to Ukraine.

However, even in the case of Korchok’s victory, the U -turn towards Ukraine in Slovakia is hardly possible, Meshegov believes.

Despite the pro-Western views, the cake will not be able to change the attitude of the Slovak society towards the Russian-Ukrainian war, nor make any significant decisions on this issue independently. The president simply does not have enough authority to do this.

Real actions will remain for the fitz and his cabinet of ministers.

- The government is imprisoned to restrict the support of Ukraine. Now the supply of equipment is possible only from their own arsenals. But, frankly, this technique is no longer. Almost all of it was given to Ukraine earlier, ”Meshezhnikov notes.

VS power concentration status quo

According to experts interviewed by Novo-Europe, a break of 5% after the first round of the elections does not guarantee Ivan Korchok the victory in the second.

“Of course, I will need to turn to tens of thousands of voters of the ruling coalition, who disagree with where the government pulls Slovakia,” understanding this, the cake claimed after the victory on March 23.

However, given that the third place with 12% was taken by the pro -Russian and even more pro -Russian candidate Stefan Garabin, most of his voters in the second round will most likely support Peter Pellegrini. According to recent surveys, it is the candidate from the ruling coalition that looks like a favorite. But the gap is very small: the sociological center "Focus" gives 50.8% pellegrini and 49.2% Korchoku.

At the same time, it must be remembered that, according to polls, the ex-prime minister of the country, not a cake, looked before the first round the favorite. Therefore, according to experts, it is very difficult to predict the winner now.

The victory of Pellegrini will lead to an increase in power and its concentration in one hand: then in Slovakia the post both prime minister and the president will control the pro -Russian forces. If the crust wins, then it is worth waiting for the preservation of the status quo.

- If the cake wins, then, in principle, there will be the same system as now: [the conservative government] with a more pro -European and more liberal president. But since the president’s authority is limited, he can insert sticks into the wheels of the government, but it is able to cope with this, ”says Alena Kudko.

Michal Veschka is also skeptical to the possible future of Slovakia with President Korchok. According to him, it is unlikely that Korchok’s victory will help to overcome the polarization of society.

“One president cannot change the situation, but it is important to try to solve the problem that is caused by misinformation [about the war in Ukraine], dispel myths and lies around Russia and the relations of Slovakia with it,” says Veschka.

At the same time, according to the sociologist, even in the case of the victory, the cake is unlikely to become a single leader of the Slovak opposition.

“He is a diplomat, so he will try to build a dialogue with the government,” said Vesca.

Grigory Meshezhnikov agrees with his position: if the cake wins the election, then he will have to look back at the actions of the Government Fitzo.

-He [already] says that he is ready to dialogue with the government and even support him if it will be necessary to carry out some unpopular, but reforms necessary for the country. But at the same time, he will comply with all the norms and observe whether the government is acting constitutionally, ”Meshezhnikov concludes.