Russia is breaking through the defense of Ukraine

Armed Forces cannot stop the Russian offensive. They lack people and ammunition

Russian forces again advance deep into Ukraine. The offensive passes slowly: the RF Armed Forces suffer from a deficiency of combat -ready equipment and cannot carry out large -scale attacks. Ukrainian troops also experience serious problems: they lack fighters, ammunition and especially missiles for modern air defense systems. An exacerbation at the front is confirmed by the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky: according to him, by May 9, Russian troops want to capture the hours of Yar - a strategically important point for reaching the borders of the Donetsk region. What do Russia's successes mean and what to expect at the front in 2024? "Cold" asked these questions to the founder of Conflict Intelligence Team Ruslan Leviev and his team.

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How important is the capture of Chesov Yara for Russia? Some experts say that by capturing this city, the Russian military will open the way to Kramatorsk.

- It is logical that the capture of each settlement opens the way to the next one, but to say that the watch will open the way to Kramatorsk is wrong. Yar’s clock was a logistics point of Ukrainian forces. But, having captured it, the Russians will have to sequentially capture other settlements before they can reach Kramatorsk and even more so to the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. After Chesov, Yara will be discussed in the same way, Alekseevo-Druzhkovka, Konstantinovka and other cities will be discussed.

There is no such settlement whose capture will change the whole situation in the war. Now such a stage of war, in which there are no strategic nodes that can be conquered, and then run ahead, and no one will stop you.

Yar’s clock is smaller than Bakhmut, but it is on top. Having captured it, the Russians will gain a small advantage, because at the height they will have fire control over the territory around the city. But this distance is not endless. All the same, at a slightly larger distance, they will have to gnaw at the same way the new territories kilometer per kilometer, the street behind the street, landing behind the landing.

When Ukrainian politicians talk about the importance of an individual settlement, they probably want to explain why the Ukrainian military continues to protect such insignificant sections of the area at the cost of the death of soldiers.

Does Ukraine have a chance to keep Yar's watch?

- Is there or not - depends on many conditions. Here we are not so much about the hours of Yar, but about the Russian offensive in general and the city, which are gradually subjected to attacks. In total, four problem parameters can be distinguished. Having solved these problems, Ukraine can stop the Russian offensive:

1) a lack of human resources at the front;
2) lack of shells ;
3) the problem with the fortifications ;
4) lack of missiles for air defense .

Last week, Ukraine adopted a new law on mobilization: they decided not to say how many people would be called up (Zelensky only said that less than 500 thousand people would be mobilized). But even if the mobilization begins in the very near future, it will still take a few more weeks or months before these people find themselves on the front line.

The situation with shell hunger in Ukraine should be decided soon: by the end of April - beginning of May, the Armed Forces of Ukraine should receive delivery of shells (in total, by the end of the year, Ukraine was promised to provide 800 thousand shells). The advantage of Russia is estimated at about five to six shells per Ukrainian, but this situation should soon change.

The problem with the fortifications, as far as possible, is also solved: they are being built. It is still impossible to say what quality these fortifications are. But the problem is that even the most strong fortifications Russia is able to destroy powerful controlled bombs that it began to use in recent months. And this leads us to the fourth problem - without enough missiles for air defense missiles and the opportunity to drive away Russian fighters from the front line (which these bombs are thrown away), the slow offensive of Russia cannot be stopped.

The solution of only one or more of the described problems will only slow down, but will not stop the Russian offensive. It is all these problems that need to be solved. At the same time, you should not underestimate the problems of the Russian army: we see a serious lack of technology.

But Russia has huge reserves of equipment in warehouses, why is it not enough at the front?

- The fact is that it is simply incorrect to evaluate the military equipment stored in warehouses in warehouses. Theoretically, Russia has huge reserves of military equipment, but in fact, warhead applies in 2022 were removed from warehouses and delivered to war. Everything else that is stored in warehouses requires repair, modernization or recovery.

For example, by video from drones or other videos from the front, we understand that, instead of infantry fighting vehicles (BMP, which must deliver the military to the front line), uses armored Urals or tanks, on which 25 soldiers are sitting simultaneously. This indicates a serious lack of BMP. Due to the lack of combat equipment, Russia has no resources to conduct a major attack.

The problem with the technique and the simultaneous abundance of this technique in warehouses can be figuratively described on the following example: imagine that there are two pools. In the first pool, the technique that is used at the front, in the second - the technique in storage. There is a pipe between these two pools, and the diameter of this pipe determines the production capabilities of Russia to restore technology. At the same time, another pipe comes from the first pool in which the technique on the front line is located - the technique that is destroyed in the war and is not subject to restoration comes through it.

Formally, there are a lot of equipment in the second pool (with reserves), but Russia cannot increase the diameter of the pipe between the pools, because it cannot increase the pace of restoration and production of equipment.

Does this mean that in the next few months, Russia will continue to slowly capture new settlements?

- Not only in the coming months. We expect that a sluggish offensive will occur before the end of 2024, and Ukraine will try to slow down this offensive. The Russia's strategy is now to delay the situation until November, until the US election is held in the United States. In Russia, they hope that Donald Trump will become president (which does not plan to help Ukraine), and then it will be possible to plan a breakthrough of the front line for 2025.