World negotiations: Is there hope?

In June, a peaceful conference in Ukraine will be held in Switzerland. It is planned that about a hundred states can take part in it, which will try to put Russia and Ukraine at the negotiating table. The problem is that neither Ukraine nor Russia are ready for real negotiations.

How the conference was organized

The initiative to hold the Global Summit belongs to Vladimir Zelensky. The conference at the request of the Ukrainian leader, Switzerland President Viola Ameher, announced his readiness to adopt in January.

Last week, the time and place became known: June 15–16, the resort of the burghentist near Lucerne. For three months, the organizers conducted negotiations with potential participants, according to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Switzerland, Injacio Kassis, more than a hundred countries will receive invitations. Zelensky in April said that he was counting on 80–100 states. US President Joe Biden can come to the summit, writes Swiss Neue Zürcher Zeitung, but has not officially announced this yet.

Support “important stories” with your help we tell the truth about the Russian war with Ukraine to support

According to Zelensky, the discussions are based on his “formula of the world” of ten points. The President of Ukraine called it at the end of 2022, the main thing there is the withdrawal of Russian troops and the cessation of hostilities, the restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, the liberation of all prisoners and the return of the deported. Zelensky expects that the participants of the summit in Switzerland on the basis of his “formulas” will prepare a peace plan, and then “some parties to negotiations” will pass it on to Russia.

The conference will show how wide the support of the Formula World managed to enlist Zelensky and its government outside the European Union and NATO, says Jamie Shi, former deputy adviser to the Secretary General of NATO, expert of the analytical centers of Friends of Europe and Chatham House.

When and how they want to attract Russia

The Russian delegation will definitely not be at the Summit on June 15-16 - the organizers of the Russians did not invite. In any case, Maria Zakharova in March stated that even in the case of an invitation of the Russian delegation in Switzerland, there would be no.

The reason is that Russia does not accept the "formula of the world" of Zelensky. Vladimir Putin, when he talks about possible negotiations, always emphasizes the need to take into account the "realities that have developed on Earth." In fact, this means that Russia wants to keep the territories occupied after the start of a full -scale invasion (and even more so in 2014) - all of them are already formally included in Russia.

Nevertheless, the Swiss authorities, announcing the date of the conference last week, emphasized that in the future Russia should participate in negotiations. The task is to create a "specific road map of Russia's participation in a peaceful process." “From the very beginning it should be clear - sooner or later Russia should be [in negotiations],” said Foreign Minister Cassis.

The conference organizers understand that Russia will reject a peace plan compiled without its participation, so they must find a way to include Moscow in negotiations, according to Jamie Shi. So far, the participation of Russia can only be discussed theoretically, but even statements about this are exerting strong pressure on it - now the Kremlin will be more difficult to name this plan of the anti -Russian propaganda of the West. At the same time, Russia is not interested in negotiations and the conclusion of the world, as it is preparing a new offensive at the front to capture even more territories, she explains Shi.

If Russia joins negotiations, it is important to make it so that it does not use them to spread its propaganda, the expert on international issues, the former Polish diplomat, who asked for anonymity. “Negotiations should be“ technical ”and go behind closed doors,” he says, adding that in no case there should be no delegations of “DPR” or “LPR”. The interlocutor believes that negotiations with the participation of Ukraine and Russia are necessary, since it will not work to resolve the conflict by the military way.

Will Ukraine agree to negotiations with Russia

President Zelensky said many times that negotiations are possible only after the withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories. In addition, on September 30, 2022, he signed a decree that states the impossibility of negotiations “with the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin”. Since then, Putin has re -elected and, if nothing happens, will hold the president’s post until at least 2030.

Zelensky is regularly asked about negotiations with Russia and specifically with Putin. “We will offer the site where he may agree that he lost this war and that it was a big mistake,” the Ukrainian leader said in February 2024. This week, Zelensky said that Putin now wants not negotiations, but victories over Ukraine: “For him, victory is the destruction of Ukraine. So how do you want us to talk to a person who wants to kill you? Just kill. He says: "Either you are part of Russia, or we will destroy you all."

In the West there are a lot of people who want to put Ukraine and Russia for negotiations, but now it seems impossible

Ukraine absolutely does not trust the Kremlin, so it is firmly on the maximum program-a return to the borders of 1991, says Ukrainian politics researcher, journalist Konstantin Skorkin. “General, taking into account all internal problems - corruption, the unpopular law on mobilization, the consequences of the resignation of the chief of the Saluzhny - is not also ready to become a leader who will surrender the territories or try to find a common language with the Kremlin,” he said. Skorkin considers the current situation to be a diplomatic impasse: “In the West, there are a lot of people who want to put Ukraine and Russia for negotiations, but now it seems impossible. In some ways, this reminds me of the era of the Minsk agreements, then there was an impossible agreement, and now the case cannot reach the negotiations. ”

It is now difficult to imagine productive negotiations with Putin, there is no good will on his part, the Russian expert on international relations, who asked for anonymity, agrees. “The Swiss meeting from the point of view of Putin is a“ panoptic ” , so it is not perceived by it, and it is impossible to develop contacts with a person who does not make contacts. Last Friday, he hinted at the readiness to return to the Istanbul format, but what exactly Putin has in mind is incomprehensible. But a priori it is clear that Ukraine will not work with its format, ”the analyst is sure.

Whether China will be able to persuade

The conference organizers separately talk about how important it is to invite the so -called “global south” to the summit: China, India, South Africa, Brazil, etc. The main on this list is China. In March, the ambassador of the country to Switzerland said that Beijing would consider participation in the conference, but whether the Chinese will come to the Burgenste, is still unknown.

This week, the German Chancellor Olaf Sholts, who came on a visit to Beijing, tried to convince China Xi Jinping this week. After a meeting with SI, Sholts wrote that they agreed to “support” the conference in Switzerland. At the same time, Si said that attempts to find peaceful decisions should be recognized by both Ukraine and Russia. From these words, the Reuters agency concludes that Si retreated from the summit.

Subscribe to our ravykums we will send you only important stories

China is trying to independently find out whether negotiations are possible between Russia and Ukraine. In recent months, Chinese diplomats talked on this subject with senior officials of both countries, writes Wall Street Journal with reference to sources. However, in the West they look at this skeptical: Chinese diplomats do not hold high posts, and it is not clear whether they act at the direction of Xi Jinping. According to the source of the publication in the Kremlin, the Chinese authorities slow down the construction of the Siberia -2 Strength gas pipeline in order to be able to press on Putin if necessary. “China walks on thin ice,” a high -ranking Western official concludes, bearing in mind that, on the one hand, Beijing supplies Russia with dual -use goods that can be used to produce weapons, and on the other hand, he has not yet provided military assistance to Russia.

In February last year, China presented its own plan for resolving the conflict in Ukraine. It has points on the cessation of hostilities, the resumption of peaceful negotiations, respect for the sovereignty of states, but nothing is said about the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine.