"The worst elections in history"

Biden and Trump will again converge in the battle for the presidential chair. Who will win and how will this affect Ukraine?

In the upcoming presidential elections in the United States, the whole world will see the second round of the confrontation of the two “grandfathers” : Joe Biden will fight Donald Trump again. Until recently, the level of support for the main candidates from the democratic and republican parties was almost equal: 45% - Biden, 46% - with Trump. However, recently, a scandalous Republican broke forward. Both candidates have a record anti-rating, which is why the media has already christened it with "the worst elections in modern history." The outcome of voting will directly affect the prospects of Ukraine in the fight against the Russian invasion. Trump opposes the support of Ukraine and wants to end the war for 24 hours, supposedly promising to give the Ukrainian territories of Russia. True, there is a nuance - Trump may disappear from the final version of the ballot ballot, because he was charged with 91 criminal charges. Pensioners in the battle for the White House - in the material "Cold".

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The US presidential election will be held on November 5, 2024, the main applicants are the same: 81-year-old Biden and 77-year-old Trump. The latter will try to take revenge for defeat in 2020 - an extremely rare event for the American elections. The last time this was almost 70 years ago: in the elections in 1952, the candidate from the Democratic Party Edly Stevenson II lost to Dwight Eisenhower, and four years later, in 1956, he tried to take revenge-but lost again.

Better not found

Both candidates do not have serious intra -party competition: Joe Biden goes to the polls as the leader of the Democratic Party and the current president. In turn, Trump inside the Republican Party tried to confront the former US Permanent Representative to the UN Nickki Haley , but she had already left the race.

About 70% of Trump's supporters consider Biden an illegitimate president and even tried to challenge the results of the elections. They scold Biden for high inflation, conflicts abroad (in the Middle East, Afghanistan and Ukraine) and, of course, age. Now the president is 81 years old - nominated by a presidential candidate, he will beat his own record set in previous elections.

Donald Trump voters fear for other reasons, although his age also annoys them. Among them are his views on immigration and abortion. More than half of the Americans also think that his first term harmed relations with other countries, struggle with climate change, and also undermined the stability and security of elections in the United States, as he convinced his supporters that they were falsified and tried to falsify the elections. In addition, historians consider Trump the worst president of all. Joe Biden-in 14th place.

Despite the approximately equal ratings of candidates, analysts and journalists believe that Trump begins to go into separation - the dynamics of recent surveys indicates an increase in the support of the Republican. Such numbers, for example, are fixed by one of the most authoritative projects of political analytics in the United States under the name 538 (belongs to ABC News). The project aggregates data from many hundreds ofires, updates it every day and gives information on each individual state.

The most accurate , according to project 538, a survey conducted by the New York Times, together with Siena College, showed that Trump on average ahead of Bayden by 2–4%. The recent survey The Wall Street Journal also showed that Trump wins in the so -called doubting states. However, a significant part of the Americans has not yet decided on their candidate. According to the New York Times, about 8% of the Americans registered in the elections ( each citizen over 18 years of age needs to register to participate in the elections. - Approx. " Cold ") yet do not know who they will vote for.

A significant part of all Americans (18% of respondents) stated that they would not go to vote at all if Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in the ballot. At the same time, Biden anti -rating is still lower than that of Trump. Among those who would not want to vote for both, according to the survey of the analytical companyYugov , 27% are ready to support Biden, but Trump - only 17%. Even more (34%) would like to vote for another candidate. And almost a quarter of the Americans (about 23%) have not yet decided on the candidate or intend to ignore the vote.

It is also worth considering that about a third of Americans do not vote at all: in 2020, the turnout was 66% . This means that 34%, or about 80 million people, did not vote in the previous elections of the US president, although the turnout in those elections was record.

A small hitch

The criminal cases that he is being judged now can get to the Bulletin of Trump. The ex-president has been charged with 91 criminal prosecution-and it is highly likely that none of them will affect his participation in the presidential race, although for some of them he could receive a real term in theory.

Among these accusations : fraud for silence, slander and sexual violence, concealing secret documents for personal purposes, an attempt to falsify the election results, as well as an attempt by an armed uprising - we are talking about an attempt to Trump's ultra -right supporters on January 6, 2021.

Some criminal cases against Trump are civilian in nature - and are unlikely to be able to influence his participation in the elections. Another part is serious charges, because of which Trump may not be allowed before the elections. But if these cases are not considered before his inauguration, he can simply close them.

The US Constitution in theory does not prohibit the current president to pardon himself, since his right to amnesty is almost limitless. Such a precedent in history was only once: Richard Nixon wanted to pardon himself - however, the US Ministry of Justice gave an explanation that “no one has the right to be a judge in his own affairs,” and forbade him to do it. Despite this, experts are afraid that Trump will try to amnesty himself. Whether he will succeed in depending on whether his actions will consider his actions by constitutional: now the US legal community does not have an unambiguous opinion on this.

The main cases against Trump

Secret documents in Mar-A-Lia

In the Donald Trump residence in Mar-A-Lesa, the FBI found documents under the heading “secret”, the leak of which poses a threat to national security. According to the prosecution, Donald Trump brought these documents from the White House, kept them at home, lied that he did not have them, and refused to issue them at the official requests of the government. The accusations were made in the summer of 2023, but the proceedings in the case are constantly postponed - if the case is not considered before the election, then in the event of the election of Trump may try to close it.

Assault on the Capitol

Trump supported the armed assault on Capitol with his ultra -right supporters. In this regard, the courts of 30 states were received by cases that were supposed to exclude the former president from the ballot. According to the plaintiffs, Trump violated the oath to protect the US Constitution. But he appealed to the Supreme Court - and won: the States was forbidden to remove the former president from the ballots. Some of the state authorities tried to outplay this decision using special amendments to the law, but this is impossible, while the majority in the House of Republican representatives are supporters of Trump.

Sex-scandal with pornstar

In 2016, the former fixer (a specialist in solving a reputation problem, solved ) Trump paid 130 thousand dollars pornstar, Stormy Daniels. This amount was supposed to cover the actress’s silence that they had sex with Trump. Trump himself denies that history took place, but the prosecutors insist that the then presidential candidate forged a number of documents to hide the money compensation. On this case, hearings recently began . The accusations do not seem the most serious, but in fact Trump is charged with 34 criminal episodes, the maximum total term for which is 136 years.

Falsification of elections

The accusations of falsifying the elections are the most serious for Donald Trump and may not allow him to run: such cases are considered “an attack on democracy”, and one of the residents of the accusation is extremely strong - Trump called the secretary of the state of Georgia and asked “to find 11 thousand votes”. Despite the seriousness of the accusations, the case was almost closed due to the scandal: a romantic connection was revealed between the district prosecutor Fani Willis, who acted as the prosecutor and the lawyer she hired. The judge refused to close the case against Trump, but Willis and her lawyer left the case. Hearing in the case should be held on April 22, 2024.

Despite numerous litigation, it remains extremely unlikely that Trump will not be allowed to the election. And if this happens, it will turn into a scandal of a national scale. Thus, the probability that Donald Trump will again become the president is large. In addition, things are considered very slowly against him, and there are very few left before the elections.

Prochrevsky U -turn

From the coming to power of Donald Trump, Ukraine will suffer greatly. In non -public conversations, he allegedly said that in case of victory in the elections, he would forced Ukraine to give Russia the occupied territories: to abandon the idea of ​​the return of Crimea and completely give the Donbass. Such a decision by 180 degrees will deploy Biden’s policy to contain Russian aggression and allocate financial and military assistance to Ukraine. Trump is sure that he can end the war for “24 hours”, but did not specify the details of his “peaceful plan”.

Without even being the president, Trump affects the Republicans in Congress so that they oppose the support of Ukraine. While the Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing a critical lack of ammunition, Russian propaganda sounds from the stands of the House of Representatives, and Trump supporters have long blocked the assistance of $ 95.3 billion, which the Senate approved on February 7, 2024. However, Trump’s influence on the legislative power is still limited: the House of Representatives nevertheless approved the allocation of a package of assistance to Ukraine.

This decision caused a stormy discussion among Trump's supporters, who now call the Chairman of the Republican Chamber Mike Johnson and demand his resignation. If Trump returns to the White House, the chances of continuing assistance to Ukraine will fall sharply.

According to Trump, Russia and Ukraine are “looking for a way out” and want to complete the conflict, “retaining the face”. He also believes that for the population of the occupied territories it will be “normal” if they become part of Russia. Many of Trump's supporters in power try to dissuade him from concessions in favor of Russia, because they understand that this means strengthening Russian positions in the world. They are also worried that Trump may be consulted with people who are little aware of the conflict.

“I spend a hundred percent of my time talking with Trump about Ukraine. Putin must pay [for the invasion of Ukraine]. He cannot win, ” said Trump's supporter, Senator Lindsay Graham.

According to him, he told Trump that to give the captured territories of Russia was a mistake, and tried to convince him that Ukraine’s entry into NATO was the right path. “In my opinion, in order to end the war, Ukraine must join NATO and the European Union. But he [Trump] almost does not speak about this [version]. I don’t even know if he is considering him seriously, ” said the senator.

The main thing that worries Trump in the war in Ukraine is the rapprochement of Russia and China. In addition to the intention to force Ukraine to give the occupied territories, he may try to relieve sanctions from Russia: in his opinion, then the Kremlin will again deploy the country's economy towards the West.

American experts in Russia note that Trump’s attempt to force Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to be able to be able to. His plan is based on the opinion that the war that lasted for two years is “a small territorial dispute between Russia and Ukraine”, and not the largest armed conflict in Europe since the Second World War. At the same time, the press service of Trump’s campaign headquarters refuses to comment on his position, noting that he is “the only one who says to end fire and murder”.

Due to the fact that Trump rarely acts publicly on the topic of Russia's war with Ukraine, many begin to speak on his behalf. For example, the Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban , known for his pro-Russian views , blocking the assistance of Ukraine and criticism of the EU, after a meeting with Trump, stated that he would end the war because “would not give a penny” to Ukraine.

At the same time, the interlocutor of the Washington Post, who knows the content of the conversation, claims that Orban is lying. Donald Trump allegedly entertained the prime minister of Hungary in the residence of Mar-A-Liaz and did not want to publicly refute his words after that. Moreover, at the meeting of Orban, from the words of the WP interlocutor, he talked a lot about the history of the USSR and justified Russia's claims to Ukrainian territories, but Trump “did not delve into” his stories.

Journalists have repeatedly noticed Trump's strange love for Putin. He does not forget to praise Putin and say that there is no fake news in Russia. Trump denied that Russia intervened in the American elections, advocated that Crimea remained in Russia, despite the violation of international law. Moreover, he doubted whether to renew the sanctions after Russia's annexation, shared secret information with Russia, criticized NATO and praised pro-Russian politicians in Europe, refused to impose sanctions against Russia because of the poisoning of the Skripals.

In addition, Trump pressed the President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky during the 2020 presidential campaign. He blocked military assistance for $ 400 million and promised to approve it only if Ukraine agrees to look for compromising evidence for the son of Joe Biden - Hunter. Trump later learned about the informant who drained the data, and unlocked assistance in the Congress.

However, recently, Trump’s rhetoric in relation to Ukraine softened. He publicly admitted that the survival of Ukraine is “critical for the United States”, and the main criticism went to Europe for insufficient financial and military assistance to Ukraine.

“Why does Europe not give Ukraine more money [than the USA]? Why did the US invest in a war 100 billion more than Europe, although the ocean shares us? Why can't Europe give more or at least approach the United States by the level of [financing] to a country that desperately needs [help]? ” - wrote Trump.

He also entrusted the blame for the war on the “incompetent” democrats and personally Joe Biden and said that “this war would never have happened”.

What to do NATO

If Donald Trump comes to power in the United States and refuses to allocate assistance to Ukraine, Europe will remain its only large ally in the fight against Russia. This is understood in NATO, and therefore the Alliance wants to prepare for possible political changes in the States and protect itself and Ukraine in advance. For this, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg presented a new plan for military assistance to Ukraine. The new approach to financing Ukraine should mitigate the damage from political changes in the United States and will not allow it to lose in the war during the presidency of Donald Trump.

The plan suggests that the EU and NATO countries will have to allocate about $ 107 billion in five years in five years. In this case, each NATO country will have to allocate the amount proportional to its GDP. Moreover, NATO wants to take responsibility for arms deliveries - now a group is engaged in the leadership of the United States.

So far, the United States is inferior in terms of funding for the US funding: the states sent $ 74.3 billion to Ukraine (of which 46.3 billion are directly for military assistance) - not counting the funds that have just passed through the House of Representatives (they should go through the Senate, and then the President). But this is the highest indicator among individual countries.

The European Union and the Union countries (countries of Asia, Oceania, Scandinavia) allocated $ 101 billion to Ukraine. Given the new package adopted on February 1, 2024, in total, Ukraine will receive approximately $ 155 billion from the EU. The five -year project Stoltenberg is in the early stages of the discussion and also requires improvements. The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky insists that without American assistance to Ukraine, Russia will win the war - now Ukrainian troops are forced to retreat .