Translated material
Pre -election race. Update
Pre -election race. Update. Bidden over the past month and a half approached Trump's surveys. The average values of Pollels in different aggregators give an almost equal result:
- RCP, Trump - 44.6%. Biden - 44.4%.
- DDHQ: Trump - 45, Biden - 44.6.
- 270towin: Trump - 45.5%, Bidden - 45%.
Experts discuss that the reason - Biden leads a more active campaign, people felt an improvement in the economy, Trump's judicial problems affected, the voter finally realized that his choice was between Biden and Trump.
Whatever the reason, it must be remembered that there are more than six months before the elections, both candidates have a lot of time to change the situation in the race. Polls will become much more meaningful at the end of summer, after the election congresses of the Republican and Democratic parties.
It is a little more interesting to look at Polly in key, hesitation of the States, which will decide the fate of the presidency in the electoral college. If you look at the average values of Pollels, within the range of 4 percent error - four states, Michigan, Viksonsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota.
The rest of the states, if the elections were held today, and voters would vote close to polls, would bring Biden 216 votes at the electoral college, and Trump - 268, only 2 less necessary for winning 270 votes.
The rest of the states, according to today's polls, would bring Biden 216 votes at the electoral college, and Trump - 268, only 2 less necessary for the victory of 270 votes. @270towin https://t.co/sdnjpxzvk2 #2024election
-Kokus-i-Permine (@vote_explained) April 24, 2024
That is, Biden to win would have to defend all four states, and Trump enough to win any of them. Now he has the greatest chances in Michigan and Wisconsin, where, according to different aggregators, he is ahead of Biden by an average of 1.5-3%.
To add uncertainty - Robert Kennedy -Ml. I got the right to be entered in the ballot in Michigan, and although it is not completely clear who is more harmful to his participation in the elections, now he takes a little more votes from Biden.
That is, Bayden’s path to victory now looks very difficult - he needs to win all four most controversial states. Four more states, which are also considered hesitant, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Caroline, now in the surveys seem even less achievable for him.
However, all these grades are within the errors during surveys, and a lot will change in six months. Biden seems to be going to take decisive measures regarding the immigration crisis, one of his main problems. Trump spends most of the time in court in New York, and the consequences of this process are unpredictable.
So far, he is not able to unite even the Republicans around him. Yesterday, in Pennsylvania, more than 16 percent of participants in party primaries voted for Nikki Haley, who stopped the campaign a month ago. Biden also has intra-party problems (especially with the extremely left-handed due to the war in gas), albeit not as large as Trump. About five percent of the participants in democratic primaries did not support the primaries in Pennsylvania Biden.
And both still remain very unpopular candidates, and victory may go to the one who will less repel voters.