Santa Barbara in Venger

Viktor Orban challenged a new opponent. He publishes negotiations of ministers about bribes and collects rallies, in response to receive charges of domestic violence. Reporting "Novo-Europe" from Budapest

In Hungary, the largest protests against the current government have been held over many years. The reason for them was a number of scandals - from the presidential pardon of a person who defended the pedophile, to accusations of corruption of the second according to the influence of the official in the government.

Against this background, a new player appeared on the political arena of Hungary - Peter Magyar, previously known only as the former husband of the Minister of Justice. A young, energetic, bold criticizing current regime, Magyar immediately attracted the attention of society. But does he have real chances to squeeze the Prime Minister of the permanent Viktor Orban-the correspondent of Novo-Europe, Julia Akhmedova, understood the correspondent.

The center of Budapest is filled with tourists. In the afternoon they spend time at the parliament building - the most recognizable attraction of the Hungarian capital. In the evening - in the bars and on the already open, despite the beginning of April, the verandas.

But this spring will be remembered in Hungary not only an abnormally high temperature, but also with hot political events, behind which the Hungarians monitor the soap opera. Since February, the most large -scale protests have been held here over the past few years, and an increasing number of annoying and tired of corruption in the power of citizens of the country have been released for each next rally.

For the first time since 2010, when Viktor Orban again took the post of prime minister of Hungary, he had a strong rival-43-year-old Peter Magyar. Three months ago, he was not known to anyone, now the world media say about him, and part of the Hungarian society has considerable hopes for him.

However, the Hungarians have been looking for a strong competitor to Orban for several years. In the last parliamentary elections in 2022, 35% of voters voted for the Opposition Alliance “Hungary for everyone”. However, the FIDES party led by Orban still gained significantly more - 53.1% of the vote. So Orban won and became the Prime Minister for the fourth time in a row.

On April 6, in Budapest, Peter Magyar headed one of the largest rallies in the history of modern Hungary - in response to the call of politics, tens of thousands of people came to the streets.

The march under the national flags, which in the evening changed to burning torches, people walked along the central streets of the capital and filled the square in front of the parliament building. On that day, public transport was crowded - everyone was heading here, including getting to Budapest from other cities and villages.

“From now on, everything will not be the same as before. Changes that cannot be stopped, ” said Magyar from the stage, and also announced the creation of a party that will run for elections to the European Parliament in June 2024. Given that the parliamentary elections in Hungary itself will take place only in 2026, the elections to the European Parliament are the closest ones in which Peter Magyar can show himself as a real politician.

The reasons for the protests

After a couple of days, the square in front of the parliament looks so calm and clean as if there were no protests. But the Hungarians with enthusiasm claim that this is only visibility and now large -scale events are taking place in the country.

“The protests began suddenly, no one expected,” says Gergie Nilash, a journalist of the independent Hungarian publication Telex.hu. “But, probably, this is a peel from the banana on which the Victor Orban government slipped.”

The main trigger for protests was the news that the President of Hungary Katalin Novak, a member of the Fides and the comrade -in -arms of Orban - pardoned the accomplice of the crime associated with pedophilia in the orphanage.

“She made this decision a year ago, but it became widely known about it only in February 2024. And then it began, ”says Nilash.

We are talking about the deputy director of the orphanage, who was sentenced to three years in prison for coaring orphans to refuse accusations against the head of the institution. As the court ruled, from 2004 to 2016 the head harassed at least ten minor boys and forced children to have oral sex with him.

Probably, no one would have recognized the pardon, because in Hungary this information is not advertised. But in parallel with a request for pardon, the deputy director of the orphanage, who helped the pedophile, tried to take off his ban on working with children through the court. According to the Hungarian publication "444", from the documents related precisely with this trial, their readers learned about the decision of the president.

For Katalin Novak, who built a career on the protection of families and children, as well as for the FIDES party, which, like the authorities in Russia, advocates “traditional values” and introduces restrictions against LGBT, the scandal became a serious blow. In February, the first protests passed , after which Novak admitted that she made a mistake, and resigned.

Together with her, Judit Varga, who headed the Fesses list in the upcoming elections to the European Parliament, also stated her from politics. At the time of the decision to have pardon, Varg held the post of Minister of Justice and, accordingly, signed this document.

After that, Peter Magyar, the ex -husband of Judit Varga, entered the political arena of Hungary.

New hope

Peter Magyar was born in Budapest in 1981. His mother is a senior figure in the Hungarian judicial system, his grandfather was a famous judge, and his uncle, Ferenz Madl, served as president of Hungary in 2000-2005. While still a student of the Faculty of Law, Magyar met his future wife Judit Vargo. This pair with three children was often described as an ideal, exemplary conservative family. In 2023, the couple divorced.

“This person has been part of the system for many years, held high positions in state -owned companies, knows a lot about this regime from the inside. And suddenly he was in the spotlight, ”says a political scientist, an expert of an independent Institute for Political Studies of Political Capital Bulchchu Hunadi .

A few hours after the resignation of his ex -wife, Magyar published a post on Facebook, where he stated that he was leaving all government posts.

Over the years, he managed to be a member of the Board of Directors of the large transport company Volanbusz, to work at the Foreign Ministry and the Hungarian representative office of the EU in Brussels, to head the student loans agency. But, as Magyar wrote, in the last few years he realized that the idea of ​​“national, sovereign, civilian Hungary”, proclaimed by the Orban government, was actually a cover for mass corruption and redistribution of wealth in favor of those who have “correct connections”. The post on Facebook was followed by several interviews to the Hungarian media , in which Magyar continued to blame the current government of corruption.

The scandal reached a new level when everything on the same Facebook

Magyar published a recording of a conversation with his ex -wife. She said in it that the head of the Hungarian prime minister, the second most powerful person in the government, falsified evidence in the criminal case of corruption against the former secretary of the Ministry of Justice, helping him avoid responsibility.

“This stirred up the public,” says political scientist Bulch Hunyadi. - The reason for the popularity of Magyar is also that after the parliamentary elections of April 2022, the voter is in complete apathy. He critically refers to the government, but at the same time no longer trusts opposition parties. In such an environment, I think, the Magyar phenomenon is really able to blow up the usual course of events. ”

The journalist of the independent Hungarian publication Valasz Online and almost the namesake of the new leader of the opposition Peter Madgori agree with him. “Over the past thirty years, we have not seen anything like it,” says the journalist. -Firstly, this is a completely new phenomenon: when someone close to the ruling party says the same thing that the opposition used to say. Secondly, Magyar is a good speaker. Oppositionally tuned people wanted to see someone who could demonstrate force. And Magyar succeeds. ”

According to the journalist, Magyar thought about the political career immediately after the divorce, and now they are guided by both ambitions and personal motives:

“He seeks to prove to his ex -wife that he could be the best politician than her. And to his former friends from Fides - that he is more talented, smarter and more cunning them. I think that Magyar sincerely wants to arrange a revolution. Not for ideological reasons, but to show that it is the best. ”

Peter Magyar himself, however, in an interview with The Guardian, said that he did not plan to engage in politics, and could not afford this by virtue of his ex -wife. But the “Pedophilic scandal” literally forced him to do this: “I just found that I was obliged to publicly tell the truth about the government and oligarchs. Of course, [so far] my ex -wife was a member of this government, [for me] it was impossible to speak publicly. But the pardon scandal was the last straw. At that moment, everyone realized that the statements of the ruling party were complete hypocrisy. ”

Magyar did not answer the request of Novo-Europe about an interview.

A chance for the opposition

According to a political scientist from Hungary Nikita Shishov, the local opposition has been trying to unite against Orban for several years. There are six main opposition parties in the country, and in the parliamentary elections in 2022, everyone rallied around the Peter of the Mark-Za-Naza-independent candidate of moderate-conservative, but projuroral views. He was the main rival of Orban in the struggle for the post of prime minister, but as a result he lost to him.

“The brand-zai has become a compromise figure for opposition. That is, they are looking for such candidates who are still not compromised and convenient for everyone. At the moment, Peter Magyar turned out to be a new conciliatory figure. However, the problem of the opposition is that it is united only by the desire to overthrow Orban, and the idea of ​​what will happen after is very different, ”says Shishov.

A conversation from Novy-Europe, a 51-year-old opposition politician, ex-candidate for the prime ministers of Hungary Peter Mark-Za-Za-Babers begins with a comparison: “Orban is building a dictatorship similar to the one that Putin built. But he has not advanced so much yet, so neither I nor Peter Magyar in prison. We are not forbidden to participate in the elections. Journalists do not shoot on the streets. But still, this is a system in which there are no democratic elections and 90% of the media are controlled by the government. ”

According to the rating of Freedom House, which ranks the countries of the world in the level of political and civil freedoms, in 2024 Hungary entered the group of "partially free" states. It is noted that, having come to power in the 2010 elections, the Fides party has achieved such changes in the Constitution and legislation, which "impede the activities of opposition groups, journalists, universities and non -governmental organizations that criticize the ruling party." At the same time, back in 2017, Hungary was part of the group of "free" countries.

In the rating of freedom of the press from the most free countries to the most non-freedom compiled by the organization “Reporters without Borders”, in 2023 Hungary occupied 72th place out of 180. According to its authors, Viktor Orban “built a media imperial in which the media followed the instructions of his party.” There are independent media in the market, but they "are subjected to political, economic and normative pressure."

In 2022, on the stamps, as well as on Peter Magyar now, they had high hopes. But, according to Gergeus Nilash, during the election campaign, the Zea brand made a big mistake. “He was asked: if NATO sends troops to Ukraine, will Hungarian soldiers participate in this? - recalls Nilash. - To which he replied that if this is the NATO decision, then perhaps he will have to. And went and went. The whole propaganda campaign against him was built on a narrative that he would supposedly draw Hungary into the war. ”

Magyar, in his statements about the war in Ukraine, is much more conservative. So, in one of the recent interviews, he made his positions close to Orban, literally repeating the narratives of the Russian propaganda about the responsibility of the United States for Russia's invasion and that the Ukrainian authorities wanted to destroy the Russian -language minority. At the same time, Magyar admitted that the current Hungarian government uses anti -Ukrainian rhetoric to obtain domestic political benefits.

“The interview caused wide criticism. Later, Magyar tried to rectify the situation by taking a more pro -Ukrainian position, but without abandoning any of his previous comments. Whether these views are sincere are still unclear, ”says Bulch Hunyadi.

A few weeks before, in an interview with The Guardian, Magyar described himself as a centrist, comparing his political views with the views of France President Emmanuel Macron. But at the same time, he did not hide that the positions of “Fides” on a number of questions were closer to him than the positions of the Hungarian opposition.

Nevertheless, the stamps of the parallel among themselves in 2022 and Peter Magyar now notes that he never had the same popularity as the current opposition leader. “This does not mean that he is more talented or authoritative,” the politician thinks. - The point is not in his personality as such, but that now there are much more people against the system.

People just want change. And in this pessimistic environment a person appears who suddenly gives such a chance. He is our hope that something can change before we thought. ”

In addition, the brand-zai draws attention to the state in which the Hungarian economy is located today. After the economic crisis of 2008, the country remains quite poor by the standards of the European Union. After the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Hungarian currency, Forint, fell sharply in price, and annual inflation reached 25%by January 2023.

“We have the lowest salaries in Europe at very high prices. At the same time, there is a huge social gap. There are super -rich people who stole entire industries, energy, banking, insurance, healthcare, land, forests and much more. They become richer and richer. And ordinary citizens are poor, ”says the politician.

The stamps states that he will support the new leader in every possible way if he asks for it, but believes that Magyar should not unite with the opposition. “The current Magyar strategy is the only viable option,” he is sure. “Go against Fides, but do not unite with the opposition, to be completely new and not affected by a rotten Hungarian policy of the last thirty years.”

The core of Orban

For the first time, the 35-year-old at that time Viktor Orban headed the Hungarian government in 1998, becoming the youngest prime minister in modern history of the country. And although in the next two elections he suffered a defeat, in 2010 Orban again took this post and no longer left him. Today Orban is a record holder for being in power in the EU.

During this time, corruption scandals flashed in Hungary every now and then. It has been proven more than once that the key assets in the country, in particular, are ruled by people who are loyal Orban, many of whom are friends with him since youth. Their enterprises receive state contracts in closed tenders, which are proposed only to certain companies.

However, when asked whether the society is tired of Orban, there is no unequivocal answer.

The leader of the opposition in the past elections, Peter-Brand-Za-Tales is sure that there is fatigue and people want changes: “Of course, people are tired of Orban. Even two years after the last elections, this is confirmed. There are big changes in society. People see that Orban does not fulfill his promises. ”

“Fesses have a very convinced, strong electoral core - 25% of voters, which is about 2 million people with a total population of the country in 9 million. This is much more than other parties,” says Gergie Nilash.

-Orban has been in power for fourteen years in a row, and there is probably some kind of fatigue from it. But, unfortunately, war is a tool that helps to hold power. At such a time, people can be afraid of change. ”

Political scientist Bulchu Hunyadi also believes that the situation is ambiguous: “People in Hungary want to believe that someone will come and save us from Orban,” but the reality is that Orban remains the strongest politician in Hungary, and his party is the most supportive. “When people are asked to assess the situation in Hungary during the polls, a little more than 50% say that the country is moving in the wrong direction. Но это не очень большой перевес. Так что я бы не сказал, что люди устали от Виктора Орбана», — объясняет Хуньяди.

«Если Орбаном недовольны в Будапеште, это не значит, что им недовольны по всей Венгрии», — замечает Никита Шишов. На последних парламентских выборах в апреле 2022 года Фидес действительно проиграл на большинстве участков в столице, но при этом с отрывом выиграл в других городах и сельских территориях Венгрии.

Поэтому сегодня мало кто готов делать прогнозы о результатах выборов 9 июня. По данным социологического опроса Median, который был опубликован в середине марта, 68% избирателей слышали о выходе Петера Мадьяра на политическую арену, а 13% из них заявили, что, скорее всего, поддержат его партию.

«Я думаю, еще довольно рано говорить о том, какие у Мадьяра шансы на предстоящих выборах. И уж тем более рано говорить о парламентских выборах в Венгрии в 2026 году. Его партию TISZA («Партия уважения и свободы») зарегистрировали только в начале апреля», — подытоживает Булчу Хуньяди.

Пропаганда работает

В день, когда Петер Мадьяр опубликовал запись разговора, в котором его бывшая жена рассказывает про коррупцию в высших эшелонах власти, Юдит Варга обвинила бывшего супруга в домашнем насилии. В интервью местному ютуб-каналу она рассказала , что Мадьяр словесно и физически издевался над ней на протяжении всех лет брака — запирал ее в комнате, толкал, когда она была беременна, угрожал ножом.

Это заявление прозвучало тем неожиданнее, что на протяжении всей своей политической карьеры Юдит Варга выстраивала образ счастливой жены и матери — публиковала в фейсбуке фотографии беззаботной семейной жизни и рассказывала в интервью о том, как счастлива в браке.

Мадьяр, который сейчас продолжает делить с Варгой опеку над их детьми, все обвинения отверг : «Я никогда не обижал свою бывшую жену, мать моих троих детей. Наш брак был… суматошным с обеих сторон. Теперь у нас есть шанс прожить счастливую жизнь по отдельности с нашими замечательными тремя сыновьями».

По мнению Мадьяра, обвинения его бывшей жены в домашнем насилии — часть пропагандистской кампании, направленной против него.

И такая кампания действительно идет. По всему Будапешту расклеены плакаты, на которых оппозиционные политики — Петер Марки-Заи, бывший премьер Ференц Дьюрчань, мэр Будапешта Гергей Карачонь и теперь Петер Мадьяр — изображены в галстуках в виде знака доллара. Эти плакаты с середины марта создает и распространяет проправительственная организация «Форум гражданской солидарности» (CÖF) — тем самым давая понять избирателям, что деятельность всей венгерской оппозиции, включая нового их нового лидера, якобы финансируется из-за рубежа.

При этом дизайн плакатов отсылает к культовой фотографии американской рок-группы Dead Kennedys, фронтмен которой Джелло Биафра уже выразил возмущение тем, что изображение использовали без покупки авторских прав, да еще и в целях политической пропаганды.

«Венгерская пропаганда, в отличие от российской, работает очень умно, не в лоб, — комментирует происходящее Никита Шишов. — Когда начали широко раскручивать историю с домашним насилием, часть потенциального электората — прежде всего либерально настроенные, прозападные граждане, интеллигенция — отвернулась от Мадьяра. То есть тактика Орбана найти то, что дискредитирует по либеральным нормам морали как домашнее насилие, работает».

Меж двух выборов

Дискредитационная кампания против Мадьяра раскручивается близкими к Орбану силами, потому что многолетнему лидеру «Фидес» важно, чтобы его партия хорошо показала себя на двух выборах в этом июне: муниципальных и в Европарламент.

Из муниципальных кампаний главная схватка оппозиции и Орбана — за Будапешт.

В 2019 году удерживавший почти десять лет власть над городом член «Фидес» неожиданно проиграл представителю оппозиции Гергею Карачоню. Но на период управления городом оппозиционному мэру выпало немало испытаний — и пандемия коронавируса, и экономические последствия войны в Украине, ударившие по городскому среднему классу. Поэтому позиции Карачоня сегодня не так крепки, и власть у него может перехватить Александра Сенткиралайи — новый кандидат от «Фидес».

Прошедшие в Будапеште многотысячные митинги под лидерством Мадьяра должны помочь венгерской оппозиции мобилизовать сторонников и попробовать удержать Будапешт под своим контролем. А сам Мадьяр и его партия могут нанести удар по Орбану на выборах в Европарламент, где в Венгрии предстоит избрать 21 депутата.

Сейчас «Фидес» и близкие к ней силы контролируют 13 мандатов, а восемь принадлежат разным оппозиционным партиям. По прогнозам на середину апреля, на грядущих выборах «Фидес» и ее союзники получат 11 мандатов, семь уйдут прежней венгерской оппозиции, а еще три — партии Мадьяра TISZA. При этом у TISZA есть потенциал для роста: партия зарегистрирована только в апреле и еще не достигла пика своей популярности.

Поэтому, возможно, атака Мадьяра на позиции Орбана приведет к тому, что силы венгерского премьера впервые за почти 15 лет его правления в Венгрии получат меньше половины мандатов страны в Европарламенте.

Этот символический успех способен вдохнуть силы в венгерскую оппозицию, но именно на этих выборах для Орбана каждый мандат евродепутата на счету. Из-за своей пророссийской позиции «Фидес» покинула самую многочисленную группу в Европарламенте — «Европейскую народную партию». — и планирует присоединиться к ультраправой фракции «Европейских консерваторов и реформистов» (ECR) итальянского премьер-министра Джорджии Мелони. Чтобы занять в этой новой фракции ключевые места, «Фидес» важно привести с собой в новый созыв много депутатов.

Однако, каким бы ни был сейчас общественный и политический подъем вокруг феномена Петера Мадьяра, политолог Никита Шишов призывает не преувеличивать его шансы на значимый электоральный успех: «Я думаю, когда мы увидим результаты выборов в Европарламент, мы будем плакать. А когда надежды не оправдываются, в обществе очень быстро наступают разочарование и депрессия».

Материал создан при поддержке «Медиасети» .