On the brink

Ukraine’s line of defense under pressure as Russia gains footholds on the eastern front

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of April 27, 2024

After two months of intense fighting, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) have yet to secure a solid defense near Avdiivka. It took Russian troops only a few days to advance seven kilometers (a bit over four miles) into the AFU’s most vulnerable area, and they were able to capture the village of Ocheretyne with little resistance. The AFU’s defense to the north of Avdiivka was split in half, leaving only the battered 47th Mechanized Brigade available to counter Russian forces in this critical sector. Now, all Ukrainian-controlled territory in the southern and western parts of the Donetsk region is under threat.

The Avdiivka front

Formed in 2022, the 47th Mechanized Brigade was outfitted with Western weaponry, including Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. The brigade first saw combat in June 2023, near the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region. There, despite suffering heavy losses, it was unable to breach the Russian defense. In October 2023, the brigade was urgently redeployed to the northern flank of the Avdiivka front, where Russian troops had broken through after a surprise attack. Again, the 47th Brigade sustained losses; nevertheless, it managed to temporarily halt the Russian advance near the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant and the village of Stepove. However, in February, Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw from Avdiivka, the plant, and Stepove, and they retreated to the villages of Berdychi and Semenivka along the Durna River.

In April, Russian forces outflanked the 47th Brigade’s defense in Berdychi with an attack from the north, along the Avdiivka–Pokrovsk railway. The Russian army immediately captured the village of Ocheretyne, which sits on a hill overlooking the valleys of the Durna and Vovcha rivers. The AFU subsequently attempted to establish a new defensive line in these valleys, and Bradley fighting vehicles from the 47th Brigade were spotted both to the north of where Russian troops broke through, near the village of Novokalynove, and to the south, on the outskirts of the village of Soloviove (which was also captured by Russian forces).

Until recently, Ukraine’s 115th Mechanized Brigade was defending Ocheretyne. However, according to Ukrainian sources, the brigade abandoned the village just before a Russian tank assault. The reasons for the withdrawal remain unclear, though the brigade’s command denies any wrongdoing. After Ocheretyne fell, Ukrainian defense in the area became fragmented: there’s no continuous front line or direct communication between the remaining AFU positions.

Urgently redeploying already weakened reserves to the breach point has yielded little success, and Russian troops continue to take territory. In addition to Ocheretyne and Soloviove, Russia has captured the village of Novobakhmutivka, as well as most of Semenivka and Berdychi (which has been semi-surrounded since Ocheretyne fell).

Ukraine now faces the prospect of total defeat in the western and southern parts of the Donetsk region. If the Ukrainian army can’t establish a solid defensive line in this area, Russian troops will have the opportunity to advance toward Pokrovsk and/or the city of Kostiantynivka. Russian forces are already attacking Kostiantynivka from the east (from the direction of Russian-occupied Bakhmut).

Krasnohorivka

Even if Ukraine’s 115th Mechanized Brigade bears responsibility for the defeat near Ocheretyne, this doesn’t take away from the underlying causes of the crisis in Ukraine’s defense. The shortage of both ammunition and personnel, coupled with relentless Russian airstrikes, has rendered the Ukrainian Armed Forces incapable of holding even very strong positions. For example, it took the Russian army just a few days to capture half of Krasnohorivka — a city that Ukraine had been preparing to defend since 2015.

Russian forces assaulted the neighboring city of Marinka for nearly two years before it fell. After this, the Ukrainian military managed to hold positions between Marinka and Krasnohorivka for several more months. Now, Krasnohorivka, subjected to relentless airstrikes, could fall in a matter of weeks.

The potential collapse of the Ukrainian army’s defense in this region jeopardizes the entire southern flank of Ukraine’s defense in the Donetsk region. From Krasnohorivka and Marinka, Russian forces could advance toward Kurakhove, a crucial transportation hub through which all Ukrainian troops in and around Vuhledar are supplied.

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