Political Gerilla

The Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez held in a chair, despite the accusations of corruption. Having attacking him, the far -right ones want to recoup in the elections in the European Parliament

In Spain, a political scandal: the wife of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez was publicly accused of corruption. It was expected that the head of the government would resign - he himself made hints, but after a pause for thought, Sanchez chose to stay in the prime minister’s chair and even tried to turn the situation in his favor.

Pedro Sanchez is an experienced and strong politician who is not used to yielding. For himself and for his party, resignation right now - on the eve of the elections to the European Parliament and after long and difficult negotiations on the formation of the government - is very risky. It is easier for him to take reputation risks than to leave for a while from the political scene. As Sanchez, the same time managed to get out of the crisis by the winner and why the events in Spanish politics can affect the position of left -wing forces throughout Europe - the political scientist, the observer of European politics Denis Leven.

Last week, a large political scandal erupted in Spain. On April 24, the Spanish court opened the case of corruption against Bogonya Gomez, the wife of the current Prime Minister-Socialist Pedro Sanchez.

Behind a large -scale attack on the Spanish government is the right opposition, according to the Associated Press. NPOs “clean hands”, which filed a lawsuit against Gomez, is known primarily by the fact that it protects the interests of right and ultra -right groups and parties.

At the same time, a mass campaign against Sanchez and socialists was launched on social networks, part of which was the spread of rumors that Gomez was actually a transperson.

Against this background, on April 25, Sanchez, on his own behalf, published an open letter in which he stated that the attacks on the family in the political struggle are unacceptable, and he doubts that the retention of power in his hands is worth such damage to his relatives.

“I urgently need to answer myself the question of whether it is worth it, despite the dirt into which the right and the ultra -right strive to turn politics. Should I continue to head the government or abandon this high honor, ”the letter said .

Sanchez also said that he would not fulfill his authority until the end of the week, and on Monday, April 29, he would publicly announce his decision.

This letter of Sanchez forced his supporters and supporters of the ruling Socialist Working Party of Spain. All key representatives of the party made the support of the prime minister, and on the weekend in different cities of the country, demonstrations under the slogan "For Love for Democracy" (Por AMORA A LA DEMOCRACIA) were held .

On Monday, Sanchez really made a statement: it remains.

“My wife and I know that this discredit campaign will not stop, we have been suffering from her for ten years ... We can cope with her. I urge the Spanish society to become an example again. The troubles that haunt us are part of the global movement. Let's show the world how they protect democracy, ”the prime minister called .

The government stood, the decision of Sanchez was supported by his associates on the ruling coalition and the pan-European party of the Social Democrats , occupying the second place in the number of mandates of the European Parliament.

In the footsteps of Portugal

The organization "Pure Hands" accused Begonya Gomez at several corruption episodes at once and demanded an independent investigation. In particular, it is argued that the prime minister’s wife could use her position to find funding for the master's program, which she led at one of the Spanish universities.

In addition, “pure hands” are charged with illegal lobbying: it is reported that she achieved or contributed to the conclusion of state contracts with organizations with which she had some kind of relationship. As beneficiaries, for example, Globalia, is called beneficiaries. Her subsidiary Air Europa, as stated in the lawsuit of the “clean hands”, agreed to provide Gomez and its advisers with 15 thousand euros per month for air travel first class. It is argued that the amount of such state contracts could reach several million euros.

The Clean Hands organization is controlled by Miguel Bernard, a former ultra -right politician and activist, who was twice convicted of extortion, spent some time in prison, but was justified on the latest charges. In addition, “pure hands” regularly work with right and ultra -right organizations. These facts allow us to say that accusations against Sanchez and his wives have at least not only legal reasons.

Recently, in southern Europe, corruption scandals that lead to political crises are a common occurrence.

In the fall of 2023, in Portugal, a country with a very similar to the Spanish political culture, a corrupt scandal also erupted - and also around the socialist government. True, this scandal was much larger: several government ministers fell under suspicion of illegal transactions on the contracts.

But despite the fact that, as in Spain, the investigation has not yet ended and there was no court, the Portuguese government could not resist and the Prime Minister Kosta resigned. This led to early elections, the victory on which the right and ultra -right parties won .

Political animal

Unlike the Portuguese colleague, Sanchez resisted. And there are several reasons for this, the main of which is the prime minister’s biography, who taught his political survival skill.

So, after the 2016 elections, when the Socialist Party received a record low number of places in parliament, then its leader Sanchez said that it would not allow conservatives from the People’s Party to form a government. He planned to vote against, while the leader who won the election and its leader Mariano Rahu needed at least some of the socialist deputies to abstain.

The leader’s fundamental position provoked among the socialists the intra -party crisis, which ended with the fact that Pedro Sanchez under the pressure of the party elite was forced to leave the post of general secretary and abandon the deputy mandate. The conservative government was formed.

After the Fiasco in the elections and the rebellion in the ranks of their own party, which led to the loss of the leading position and the deputy mandate, the political career could be considered complete.

Sanchez, however, did not come to terms with the defeat. On his budget car “Peugeot 407”, he went on an eight -month tour of Spain, during which he talked with regional and municipal members of the party, trying to find a common language with them and enlist their support.

As a result, in 2017, replacing the public image to a more left one, he triumphantly won the intra -party vote and again headed the Socialist Party. And a year later, Rajoy’s government reached the resignation of the government. Then, surprisingly, the corruption scandal also erupted . Sanchez did not miss the moment and initiated a vote in parliament against the current government.

Voting against the government of the People’s Party, the deputies actually gave Sanchez the opportunity to come to power, and he took advantage of this, forming the first coalition government from the time of democratic transit in Spain, along with the radical left party of Podemos. He managed to crank all this at a time when the number of parliamentary mandates had the socialists at the lowest level in the entire modern history of Spain.

His approach to politics - to fight for power, and the failures as an opportunity for a response - Sanchez described in an autobiographical book with the characteristic name “Resistance Guide” .

Resort to this approach to Sanchez now. He used the blow to it as an opportunity to mobilize his supporters and party apparatus, and he himself ultimately remained in power.

The elections are approaching

There is another factor that influenced the choice of Sanchez and his party colleagues - high risks of resignation and re -election for socialists.

At the moment, the popularity of the Socialist Party remains at the same level as on the eve of the elections to the Parliament of Spain in July 2023 - 31–32%, and the popularity of the opposition national party, on the contrary, has grown to 36%.

After the election, Sanchez took six months to form a government. To do this, he had to make serious concessions to the regional and separatist parties. It would mean to leave now to put an end to all these efforts, on the one hand, and open the way for the conservative government with the possible participation of the VOX batch, on the other.

Unenchanged mobilization of supporters and single -party Sanchez is more profitable. Two weeks later, the elections in Catalonia will take place - the region that tried to separate from Spain in 2017.

According to the results of the latest surveys of the Center for Sociological Research, the Catalonia Socialist Party, associated with the Party of Sanchez, leads with a noticeable advantage, claiming 28–33% of the votes of the Catalans. Following the socialists, separatist political forces are going on: the left Republicans of Catalonia and the Junts legalist party with 20–24% and 18–22% of the vote, respectively.

As a result, probably, not a single batch will have a potential to independently form a ruling coalition according to the election results. Therefore, it is also worth expecting a long period of political negotiations and a lawsuit, where Sanchez’s colleagues on the left flank will come in handy for its support. Any delay and political crises in Catalonia can threaten Spain with a new turn of the confrontation of supporters of the region’s department and juniysts.

Not only Spain

In addition to the imminent elections in Catalonia, after a month, pan -European elections in the European Parliament will be held, after which the composition of the main European institutions will be updated. The Socialist Labor Party of Spain is the main supplier of euro deputies for a group of social democrats in the European Parliament. Of the 140 mandates that the group now has , 21 - Spanish.

Moreover, the chairman of the group of Social Democrats in the European Parliament Irathe Garcia is also from the Spanish socialists. Before her appointment for this post, she was the Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government of Pedro Sanchez. Finally, the Socialist Party and the head of European diplomacy and the deputy chairman of the European Commission Josep Borrel belongs. Therefore, the urgent task for Sanchez is not to lose the current influence at the pan -European level.

As the Novyevropa wrote , it is already clear that the right-wing and ultra-right groups will noticeably intensify the elections to the European Parliament. In this regard, social democrats need to minimize the inevitable losses of the number of mandates. The resignation of one of the few European leftist governments, of course, would have become a big blow to them, and the crisis of left -wing forces at the EU level would aggravate.

Polarization at the limit

Despite the fact that Sanchez was held in power, the level of political polarization in Spanish society is very high. The incentive for her was the referendum on the independence of Catalonia in 2017. Then the Carles Puchdemon, the head of the region and the leader of the Junts party, led the campaign for the department from Spain.

Since then, the degree of polarization has only grown. The ultra -right party of VOX appeared in the political arena. In 2022, she first entered the regional government, and according to the results of the regional elections devastating for socialists in the spring of 2023, she expanded her presence.

It was the failure in the regional elections that promoted Sanchez in his characteristic manner to try to restore positions: they were appointed and on July 23, 2023, extraordinary parliamentary elections were held. According to their results, the predictable strengthening of the ultra -right and the formation of the right government did not happen: they did not have enough support.

Then Sanchez refused the formally defeated People’s Party in cooperation and decided at all costs to form the government itself. To do this, heenlisted the support of separatist parties from Catalonia and the Basque Country. At the same time, I had to make significant concessions, they included the law on the amnesty of the Catalan separatists who took part in the 2017 referendum organization. In March, this law was adopted .

These concessions were even more angry with the right, who, formally winning the elections, failed to form the government. It was this bitterness and growing polarization that led to the fierce attacks of the right to the Sanchez government and his wife. And so far there are no signals that the intensity of passions will decrease - it can only increase to elections in Catalonia and the European Parliament.

In such conditions, the political situation becomes even less predictable: there may be new mutual attacks and surprises in the upcoming elections.