After a breakthrough in Ocheretino, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation prepare the assault on the Chesov Yara. This will give them the opportunity to go to the largest offensive since the summer of 2022 - if there are enough reserves

Map of battles on May 4

The crisis of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Armed Forces) continues. Ukrainian troops cannot stop the advance of the Russian army north of Avdeevka, as well as preparations for the assault on the city of Chesov Yar near Bakhmut. At the same time, all the dangers of the Russian ambitious plan should be clear for the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces (at least it is quite clear to Ukrainian experts from the former military). The Armed Forces (Armed Forces) of the Russian Federation are going to combine the efforts of the Avdeevsky and Bakhmut groups, the most powerful at the front, in order to deliver strikes in the general direction to Konstantinovka from the east (through the hours of Yar) and from the south (from Avdeevka and Oceretino). This threatens the environment (or evacuation under the threat of the environment) of the major agglomeration of Toretsk- New York .

In 2024, we updated the format of our regular reports on the main events at the front. Each new summary is now available at a separate link. The archive of materials from the beginning of the war and until January 10, 2024 can be studied here . The previous update of the summary is here .

The plan of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation so far looks too ambitious: the Russian army has not conducted offensive operations of the front -line scale since the summer of 2022, when it captured Severodonetsk and Lisichansk by the joint efforts of the LPR troops, the Central Military District and the Wagner PMC. Between the grouping in Ocheretino and under the hourly fierce, a rupture of 40 kilometers is preserved. However, the Ukrainian defense - especially under Okheretino - is still very weak, and therefore the Russian command clearly wants to take advantage of the chance.

Oceretino

• Russian troops advance two groups north of Avdeevka. One (several brigades of the Central Military District and the former Forces of the "DPR" enlisted in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) attacks in the direction of Ocheretino - Novoaleksandrovka. The other also moves north through Novokalinovo - the village of Kramik - Arkhangelskoye.
• Ukrainian sources claim that Russian troops have already reached Arkhangelsk and Novoaleksandrovka.
• The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation captured the village of Novokalinovo. There was a video on which the retreat of a large unit of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces from the village of Arkhangelsky in the north direction under the fire of Russian artillery is photographed. There were no other visual evidence that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation had advanced so far north, by the morning of Saturday was not published. There is no confirmation and capture of the neighboring village of Keramik neighboring Novokalinovo.
• At the same time, Russian troops strengthen the breakthrough flanks. After the capture of the village of Solovyevo, they attacked in the direction of the neighboring village of Sokol.
• The Ukrainian command transferred reserves to the breakthrough place, but this has not yet given a noticeable effect. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have a large numerical advantage in this direction. Parts of 12 teams of the former DNR forces and the Central Military District (one are under the reorganization in a larger connection-division), as well as tank regiments of the 90th Panzer Division, participate in the offensive. The Armed Forces after the fall of Avdeevka and the removal of part of the broken formations to the rear have only about five brigades.
• If the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot slow down the Russian offensive in the coming weeks, then the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can reach the road to Pokrovsk - Konstantinovka, which all Ukrainian troops are supplied to the west and south of Bakhmut.

Watches Yar

• The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation complete preparations for the assault on the YARS CHASOV - an important fortified area (fortified) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, located on the hills west of Bakhmut. Then the city covers the Western approaches to the same Konstantinovka.
• Russian troops occupied the first houses on the eastern outskirts of the channel of the microdistrict, as well as the village of Bogdanovka to the north of it. The Armed Forces are trying to attack the northern flank of this group in Bogdanovka - so far unsuccessfully.
• To the southeast of the Chesov, Yar of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation went to the Seversky Donets-Donbass channel, and in the place where the channel for several hundred meters goes underground. From here you can try to go around Yar’s clock from the south.
• To the south of the breakthrough place is the APU fortified area in Klescheevka, which receives the supply just through the channel. After reaching the Channel of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the situation in Klescheevka for the Armed Forces of Ukraine can deteriorate sharply.
• However, the defense of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces at Chesov Yar so far retains integrity - which can not be said about the situation to the north of Avdeevka. In order to capture the city, Russian troops must first take its suburbs east of the canal - the channel and Kalinin microdistricts. Then it will be necessary to force the channel itself. The Khortitsa Armed Forces group, defending the surroundings of Bakhmut, could restrain the offensive using a profitable geographical position. But now, powerful Russian forces, which were breaking through the defense of the Tavria group, who fought near Avdeevka, are approaching the zone of its responsibility from the south.

The success of the Russian plan will depend on what reserves the command of the RF Armed Forces will be able to use to continue the operation. The forces that stormed Avdeevka and sat to the west of her suffered heavy losses in six months of battles. There may not be enough own reserves to continue attacks in the direction of Konstantinovka. The Central Military District, which commands the operation, involved almost all its forces-two armies (2nd and 41st) and the 90th Panzer Division. The only connection of the district that did not appear near Avdeevka, the 104th landing and scurvy division is located in a completely different part of Ukraine-on the banks of the Dnieper, where it fights with tactical landings of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces under the village of Krynka.

Department "Parsing"