‘A break from convention’

Why would Putin choose Andrey Belousov, an economist, as Russia’s new defense minister?

Sergey Shoigu’s nearly 12-year tenure as Russia’s defense minister ended unexpectedly on Sunday when President Vladimir Putin removed him from his post and reassigned him to the country’s Security Council. Then, in a move that surprised even government insiders, Putin nominated Andrey Belousov, a longtime presidential economic advisor, as Shoigu’s successor. Belousov is a civilian with no direct military ties, raising questions about the rationale behind his appointment. Some observers have speculated that he may have been brought in to overhaul military spending and ensure the Russian army is adequately resourced for the ongoing war in Ukraine. The independent outlet Verstka spoke with government insiders and political scientists to get their take on what Belousov’s appointment could mean for the future of the Russian military. Meduza shares an English-language summary of Verstka’s findings.

On May 12, Vladimir Putin nominated Andrey Belousov as Russia’s new defense minister, replacing Sergey Shoigu who had held the job since 2012. The appointment came as a surprise to many government insiders since Belousov, often described as Putin’s protégé, has no direct ties to the security forces. Often referred to as an “economic ideologue,” he served as Russia’s economic development minister and later as a presidential aid; sources once described him to Verstka as Putin’s strategic counterweight to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. One member of Russia’s parliament characterized Belousov as “subtle, intelligent, and diplomatic” and expressed shock at his new post.

Only one source, a member of Russia’s Federal Assembly, didn’t seem surprised by the choice. “Well, what were you expecting?” he asked. “We have something akin to military Keynesianism in our economy, right? Here’s someone with a Doctor of Sciences who’ll be in charge of the economy of the ‘special military operation,’ not moving pins on a map. Let the General Staff handle the front. Besides, someone needs to watch the rear. [Rostec head Sergey] Chemezov and [Deputy Prime Minister Denis] Manturov were already wielding full control of the military-industrial complex, and now [the new head of Russia’s Industry and Trade Ministry Anton] Alikhanov has been brought on board. A true Putin loyalist will keep an eye on them.”

“Belousov is a proponent of the mobilization model,” said political scientist Konstantin Kalachev. “He has [the president’s] trust. He knows how to manage money. He’s perfectly suited for that position.” According to Kalachev, the new defense minister’s priority will be “optimizing expenditures and aligning them with achievements,” as well as making sure that “for every ruble spent, another square meter of territory is added.”

At the same time, Kalachev continued, Belousov’s appointment is a “bombshell” and a “break from convention.” In his view, the reshuffle lends credence to the speculation that followed the arrest of Shoigu’s deputy Timur Ivanov on corruption charges in April and suggests that Shoigu “really was under suspicion.” One government insider commented that “Shoigu’s ambitions, not just his wastefulness, played a role against him.” Political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya said that with Shoigu’s move to the Security Council, it’s become something of “a reservoir for Putin’s ‘former’ key figures — people who can’t be let go but also can’t be placed anywhere else.”

Even though we’re outlawed in Russia, we continue to deliver exclusive reporting and analysis from inside the country.

Our journalists on the ground take risks to keep you informed about changes in Russia during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Support Meduza’s work today.

Political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov also called Belousov’s appointment unexpected. “It was assumed that Belousov would move somewhere quieter, perhaps become the rector of Moscow State University or head some kind of development institute. As an ideologue of state economics, this would have aligned well with Belousov’s strategic interests, because Belousov is undoubtedly an economist,” he noted. He added that Belousov was greatly influenced by his father, Rem Belousov, who was a champion of Alexey Kosygin. “Belousov has incorporated these concepts of state and market symbiosis into the Russian economy,” explained Grashchenkov. “This has undoubtedly injected a distinct economic influence into what was once considered solely the domain of the [Defense Ministry].”

According to Grashchenkov, the Russian Defense Ministry is currently focused solely on military operations in Ukraine, rather than the financial aspect of war. “Belousov can now concentrate on fundamentally changing the methods used to manage all ministerial executive agencies, particularly everything related to front-line support, logistics, and so forth,” Grashchenkov added. However, it remains to be seen how much this unexpected appointment will alter the Defense Ministry’s structure or improve its functionality. Meanwhile, there’s still the question of whether or not Belousov will be liked in the army. “Mostly likely, he won’t be,” Grashchenkov surmised. “But Putin doesn’t need [him to be]. He needs an effective manager, which Belousov is.”

When Putin announced that Belousov would take over as head of Russia’s Defense Ministry, many Russian pro-war bloggers lauded the decision, saying that a military outsider and Putin loyalist might be just the person needed to reform the Defense Ministry. However, comments from readers left under these posts have been less optimistic. Many followers wrote that they were having “Serdyukovian flashbacks” — a reference to another civilian defense minister, Anatoly Serdyukov, whose tenure from 2007 to 2012 involved radical reforms and reductions in military numbers that led to widespread discontent within the Russian Armed Forces.