The auditor of the war

The Ministry of Defense can be headed by Andrei Belousov. Novyevropa understands how such an appointment will affect the department and combat effectiveness of the army

On Sunday evening, on May 12, Vladimir Putin proposed to appoint the first deputy chairman of the government Andrei Belousov as Minister of Defense. For the past four years, he oversaw the economic block in the government. The head of the Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu will become the Secretary of the Security Council instead of Nikolai Patrushev. Together with experts and sources, the New Gazeta Europe understands what such a sharp change in the defense department can lead to, and also how it will affect the country's army.

A special relationship

Press Secretary of Vladimir Putin Dmitry Peskov explained the proposal to appoint Andrei Belousov to the post of Minister of Defense "the need to enter the economy of the power bloc into the country's economy."

Peskov said that the one who will show more innovations, their operational implementation wins on the battlefield. And therefore, at the current stage, Putin decided to be headed by a civilian person. The official recalled that Belousov very successfully led the Ministry of Economic Development, was Putin’s assistant on economic issues, and in the previous office of ministers he worked as the first deputy chairman of the government.

“The Ministry of Defense should be absolutely open to innovation, for the introduction of all advanced ideas, to create conditions for economic competitiveness. And that is why the president settled at the candidacy of Andrei Ramovich Belousov.

- said Peskov.

Regarding the military sphere, the appointment of the new minister, according to Peskov, “in no way will change the current coordinate system ... The military component has always been the prerogative of the chief of the General Staff. In this regard, changes are not yet provided at present. ”

Fix the mo

“As a rule, the name of Andrei Belousov says almost nothing to specialists in the field of military operations,” Military Researcher Kirill Mikhailov tells “New - Europe”. “He was probably appointed to the post to“ fix ”the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, in which a lot of problems have accumulated during the leadership of Sergei Shoigu.”

According to Mikhailov, the Russian military -industrial complex can hardly manage to "for the needs of the army in replenishing losses and does not make it possible to form quite large effective reserve parts." And, the expert continues, some of the units have trucks and vehicles that are not used in hostilities, and there are almost no BMPs and tanks. “How the new minister can fight this problem is not very clear. It may be given an indication of intensifying production, buy more machines in China. But whether it will actually be able to quickly increase the volume of supply of weapons to the troops is a big question. After all, now the military -industrial complex is already working in emergency mode, ”adds Mikhailov.

“Under Shoigu, a system of enrichment on orders in the field of the military-industrial complex was built,” a Russian military expert tells the New-Europe, who asked not to name his name.

- All major financial flows went to corporations under the control of Putin's personal friends. How Belousov can make the same head of Rostec Sergey Chemezov reduce the cost of tanks and other products,

Which is already purchased, judging by the available data, at prices, which is slightly higher than the cost, is unknown. To reduce costs, it will probably be necessary to cut the profit of the companies in the military-industrial complex. What will not like their beneficiaries. Whether no one knows the word of the new Minister of Defense to outweigh the desires of the eternal largest gunsmiths of the country. ”

In addition, the Russian military expert is confident that the full -scale audit of the military department will lead to the identification of huge arrears and embezzlement of state funds. And they will follow criminal cases. Which definitely will not like today's generals and “effective managers” in uniform responsible for the purchase of weapons and receiving rollbacks when placing orders. According to our interlocutor, many corruption ties between manufacturers and generals took shape for years, if not for decades. And in the Shoigu team today there are clans that earn billions of rubles on theft from closed articles of the Russian budget.

According to Kirill Mikhailov, the RF CPSC is significantly lagging behind Ukrainian in some high -tech areas, widely in demand today on the battlefield. At the same time, in some areas of Russian industry it was possible to take a leading position in the world. It is primarily about the production of intelligence unmanned tactical links and large electronic warfare systems. However, already in the creation of FPV-throns and electronic warfare equipment used directly in the trenches, Russia obviously does not realize all the possibilities of its potential. And there are many such examples. Perhaps Andrei Belousov will try to solve this problem by introduction in the field of the military-industrial complex of his favorite methods of the State Planning Commission. Whereas in Ukraine, for example, the state, which is in the role of a kind of hub for new inventions, attracts and scales the successful development of small private companies. Probably in Russia this system will not take root.

The unpreparedness of the army

“Military operations in Ukraine revealed many disadvantages in the modern Russian army,” says Lieutenant General Romanovsky (surname changed), a teacher of a Russian military university, “apparently, the leadership of the Kremlin and the army was counting on a sort of blitzkrieg, in which the incoming troops would not meet organized resistance. And in Ukraine, they were given this resistance and the Russian army was not ready for it. First of all, due to a lack of ammunition, which ended too quickly. It was then that Sergei Shoigu organized an urgent transfer of ammunition from Siberia and the Far East. Then he transferred military plants to an emergency regime and after a couple of weeks the supply was established. But by that time the tactical advantage had already been lost, the Russian army began to lose already captured territories. ”

“In my opinion, the appointment of a purely civilian to the post of Minister of Defense in a protracted war is a big mistake,

-Retan Colonel General Boris R. believes, no matter what anyone says, but the modern army in any country is a rather close community. At the level of the generals, everyone knows each other there: someone studied with someone together, someone served together, someone crossed the exercises, and if he personally is not familiar, then there is a subordinate whom you trust and who is in the know. Knowing a person, we can predict that from him it can be expected in a particular situation. ”

Retired Colonel General is convinced that Shoigu was good as a peacetime minister, but as an actual commander in chief was an incompetent. The President sets a global strategic task, and in the power of a military minister should be the implementation of this task into life, the development of tactical plans for this. The minister is not obliged to be a specialist in all military disciplines, but his goal should be to attract the instructions of those who can cope with them. And here, ignorance, what one or another of his subordinate is capable of, strongly led Shoigu.

“When Shoigu was appointed to the Ministry of Defense, he did not have his own people there and he could not correctly evaluate the potential of subordinates,” said retired colonel general.

A pause of timelessness

“First of all, a certain pause of timelessness will begin, when the Shoigu team will leave, and new people will only occupy their posts,” the military analyst of the FBK Yang Matveev explains the New Evrop. - All this will reduce the working capacity of the ministry even more, which, of course, is critical in war conditions. Belousov is an economist, and fundamentally there is nothing strange in the appointment of a civil manager for the post of military minister. However, in the Russian system, the Minister of Defense is much more involved in purely military affairs and is largely the commander. Belousov has no experience, he does not know the army (Shoigu before the start of the war still worked for a long time in the power bloc), he needs to build relations with different military officials and generals from scratch. During the war in the Russian military system, the front -line captain would do much better. Those who are higher than the same, usually from the same Shoigu or Belousov, do not differ in the understanding of the front. ”

According to Yan Matveev, in the near future the army of the Russian Federation will be weakened by command permutations. But the consequences of the appointment of Belousov by the Minister for the sphere of the military -industrial complex will become clear only after a few months. Especially in the light of the fact that the appointment of an economist by the head of the Moscow Region can be a big step to transfer the country to military rails. And the effects will work in the complex. In the future, such an appointment is a long -term war. Putin again confirms that he is ready to fight for a long time, even until his death.

Jan Matveev finds it difficult to say whether Belousov’s appointment will lead to an increase in the efficiency of the VPC and increase the supply of weapons. “Of course, a professional economist probably understands how to put some order,” says a military analyst. - Another thing is that he is considered a supporter of rigid planning, and in the modern war the work of the military -industrial complex should be flexible. Can an economist of Putin's views be flexible enough? It seems to me that rather not. So, the military will be the first to suffer from the “order” of Belousov, when he will cut funding to them in non -obvious, but important places. ”

PR and ratings

“Economists, including Belousov’s former subordinates, stated that large salaries in the Russian army are a problem that causes a personnel crisis in some areas of the economy,” continues Kirill Mikhailov. - Mobilization can additionally worsen this situation. Therefore, it is not very clear whether the probable holding of the second wave of mobilization will support the new Minister of Defense. In addition, it is not clear whether work will be carried out on the systematization and integration of the experience gained by soldiers at the front of experience in training and combat training. A similar system functions to one degree or another in Ukraine, but so far is poorly used in the Russian Federation. So, we are talking about teaching fighters to destroy drones and other new fighting techniques. In Russia, we see how, having received a couple of lessons at the training ground, recruits leave for the front line to die during “meat assaults”. Since Belousov himself in this subject understands, obviously, very weakly, it is important who he will appoint his deputies and assistants responsible for such areas. ”

Kirill Mikhailov claims that over the decades, an all -pervasive bureaucratic system built on false reports was built in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. This leads to an improper assessment of the situation by the command, the adoption of incorrect decisions and the return of inadequate orders. It is not very clear what tools and competencies that Andrei Belousov has to combat this phenomenon, which has become the cornerstone of the entire system of work of the Moscow Region.

“Since Dmitry Peskov has already announced that Valery Gerasimov will remain the head of the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, apparently, serious changes will be made to the process of preparing and conducting military operations, apparently,

- remarks Kirill Mikhailov. - How to rebuild the army from a model of troops prepared for a small victorious campaign, to the armed forces, ready to solve large -scale and protracted tasks in the conditions of war for exhaustion, is not very clear. Now it all depends on the team that can assemble Belousov to update the work of the Moscow Region. ”

The fact that the permutations will not affect the situation in the war, because the General Staff is responsible for all this, confirms the commander of the middle level of the army of the Russian Federation, who agreed to communicate on anonymity. According to him, Shoigu did not affect hostilities.

“Why is Shoigu’s“ jacket ”Belousov’s“ jacket ”better? In the troops, the Army General Shoigu was treated with laughter. He was only a dozen years of age and earned high ratings. With it, only corruption has blossomed the most magnificent color. They say that Belousov will fight theft and bribery in the army. However, how he will do it in practice is incomprehensible. All officers are accustomed to the current system, not only allowing us to earn, but also demanding to share with a higher command. We are talking about millions of rubles in each company received when issuing vacations, injuries, award sheets, the sale of humanitarian aid, etc., ”says the interlocutor.

According to Jan Matveev, "there are no people in Putin’s government who will fight corruption." “Corruption is the glue that holds their entire system. To steal Shoigu on a scale, they say, not everyone is given, not the fact that Belousov has such talents. On the one hand, yes, he can in the short term stop the most arrogant theft, which was under Shoigu, but gradually everything will return, as it was, ”he continues.

Crisis manager

“I agree that many factors have affected the creation of a crisis in the Russian army, including improper expenditure of the military budget,” the retired colonel General Boris R. supplements, “this is the competent distribution of money, Belousov will probably be able to establish. But the war is not won by money. In any case, not the same as in Ukraine. Therefore, I am sure that the new minister is nothing more than a crisis manager. Which will keep the company (in this case, the army is afloat, will restore order with finances, but someone else will be responsible for real fighting in the conflict zone. Having no economic, but combat experience. ”

“I am sure that the level of theft of military property was a big surprise not only for Putin, but also for Shoigu himself,

-remarks Lieutenant General Romanovsky. “Although not only theft is to blame.” Sergei Shoigu is an excellent manager and organizer, but he is not a military man, and therefore many typically army things did not notice or did not attach any importance to them. ”

Lieutenant General Romanovsky tells that the bias of the military budget was not towards the warhead of the army in a long war, but rather towards its peaceful existence. And the new minister, a specialist in economics, will have to fix this skew. According to Lieutenant General, to block the military budget in the direction of Belousov’s greater efficiency. But how this will affect the course of the operation in Ukraine, the military leader is not taken to predict.