The next months will become decisive. Negotiations may begin

What is they say in the United States about the Russian offensive in Ukraine

Russia has achieved an advantage at the front in Ukraine and is ready to change the “war trajectory”, writes The New York Times. Journalists came to this conclusion based on the results of conversations with officials of the White House and military experts.

According to NYT, a year and a half ago in the White House and Pentagon discussed whether Russian forces could be completely replaced from Ukraine. But now, taking into account the Russian offensive, the administration of Joe Biden is concerned about the prospects at the front.

One of the factors that Russia was able to successfully use was the delay in the approval of the US military assistance package by the US Congress. Because of this, Russia gained a huge advantage in artillery. In addition, there was a shortage of ammunition at the air defense of Ukraine - and Russian troops were able to freely attack Ukrainian positions with planning bombs.

In addition to this, artillery and drones supplied to Ukraine from the United States and other NATO countries are suppressed by Russian electronic warfare. They turned out to be very effective, writes NYT. In some cases, the publication notes, Russia successfully deceived GPS receivers and shot down Ukrainian missiles released from Himars installations from the course. In addition, the Russian military began to track the movements of these attitudes, and in some cases to destroy them, even if they are well disguised.

Another factor that influenced the situation at the front was the delay from Ukraine in the adoption of the law on mobilization. In mid -April, Vladimir Zelensky signed a law, which, in particular, introduces, instead of urgent service, the basic military service for a period of five months in peacetime and for three months in wartime. By virtue, the law enters May 18.

The most obvious advantage of the Russian troops looks near Kharkov, where a new offensive began. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the seizure of several villages in this region. However, according to some Nyt experts surveyed, the strategic goal of Russia is to delay the Ukrainian troops and weaken the front line in other places - and begin another offensive in the Donbass area. “The main goal of Russia is still the return of the rest of the Donbass,” said Michael Kofman, senior researcher at the Carnegie Foundation.

According to NYT, the administration of US President Joe Biden grows the feeling that the next few months will become decisive, and at some point the parties to the conflict can move on to negotiations on a truce-for example, about the contract like the one that laid an end to the fighting in Korea in 1953.

At the same time, American officials express confidence that the situation will change when Western weapons begin to enter the front - most likely, in July - and Zelensky will find a way to replenish the troops. Michael Kofman believes that the Russian army has a strategic initiative, but "the window of opportunities will begin to close when we enter in 2025."