Limited partnership. What conclusions can be drawn based on the results of the first day of Putin’s visit to China?

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Vladimir Putin arrived in Beijing today on his first international visit since his inauguration. The visit will last two days, and the importance that Russia attaches to it is evidenced by the composition of the delegation: along with Putin, Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov, Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shoigu, Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Maxim Oreshkin, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov and other deputy prime ministers.

There are four pressing problems that the Russian President would obviously like to discuss with Chinese President Xi Jinping: supplies of dual-use products, payments for exports (sharply complicated due to secondary US sanctions), the stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and prospects political settlement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. There were no clear signals on any of the issues in the public field today, but this is predictable: it is better not to make such agreements public.

What Russia and China agreed on on the first day

The delegations of Russia and China signed ten agreements, and the leaders of the countries adopted a joint statement on comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction, the text of which was published on the Kremlin website. The document says the following:

• Russia and China “consistently view each other as priority partners” and are ready to “provide strong support to each other in protecting vital interests, including issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Beijing recognizes the results of the latest presidential elections, and Moscow recognizes that Taiwan is an integral part of China.
• The parties agreed to “consistently increase the scale of bilateral trade” and defend “the stability and security of production and supply chains.” It is planned to “increase the share of national currencies” in bilateral payments and improve the financial infrastructure so that they “function smoothly.” It does not follow from this that the parties agreed to unblock settlements: Chinese banks are also slowing them down in yuan. The share of settlements in national currencies has already reached 90%, Putin said.
• The documents also do not specifically talk about the second “Power of Siberia,” which remains the only outlet for Gazprom’s West Siberian fields to the foreign market. In the field of energy, Russia and China will strengthen their partnership to “ensure the economic and energy security of the two countries.”
• Russia and China intend to develop cooperation in many other sectors, from agriculture and space exploration to the development of artificial intelligence.

During the press conference, Putin assured that Moscow and Beijing will strengthen contacts through banks, and mutual investments are reliably protected from third countries. Xi Jinping promised that both states would adhere to the principles of “non-alignment and non-confrontation” towards third countries, as well as deepen political interaction.

The joint statement devoted a separate but short paragraph to the war between Russia and Ukraine. It said Russia positively assessed China's "objective and unbiased" position and welcomed its willingness to "play a constructive role" in resolving the crisis. Russia and China “call to prevent” the conflict from moving into an uncontrollable phase, and dialogue is called the optimal form of solution.

They're talking about it

The spare joint comment broadly reflects Beijing's position on the war in Ukraine, stated during Xi Jinping's recent visit to France: China "is neither the creator of this crisis, nor a party to it, nor a participant."

According to Financial Times analysts, Beijing foresees a long-term confrontation with the West, and therefore invests in relations with non-Western countries, “without paying attention to the nature of political regimes and respect for human rights.” The deterioration of relations with the United States seems to China to be an inevitable process, the speed of which, however, can be controlled. Therefore, support provided to Russia should not cross “red lines”, which will be followed by sanctions.

“Putin will likely continue to push for China to completely replace Europe in energy supplies, technology transfer and financial markets,” writes Bloomberg economist Alexander Isakov. “Kitarossia will cost years and many billions of dollars, but it is the only conceivable option in a protracted war with Ukraine.”

In general, the signal from the two leaders to the world is clear: relations are stronger than ever, and Russia has not been so distant from the West for a long time, notes The Guardian. China's wariness and fatigue from Russia remains in the shadows, writes Business Insider. The Chinese media prefer not to recall Xi’s words about the “borderless partnership,” which clearly shows its possible limit - the risk of serious damage to China’s welfare and US sanctions against key companies.