"But pasta does not stick to the wall"

Among Biden's supporters, pessimistic forecasts sound louder. Trump confidently leads in polls, the democrats have a split, and they expect something non-standard from the president

“If the elections took place today, Trump would have won,” I wrote two months ago. Now, when half a year is left before the US presidential election, this is truism. In confirmation, I will quote a number of authors, not one of whom belongs to fans of the former president.

I will start with the famous political strategist of the Democrats James Carville, who in 1992 was the chief strategist of the victorious election campaign of Bill Clinton and became famous for the phrase "Upure on the economy, stupid!" ("The Economy, Stupid!"). Clinton and his partner Al mountains obeyed and so diligently scolded President-Republican George Bush Sr. for the then economic decline (who had already ended by that time) that they dropped Bush from the saddle, although recently his rating after the liberation of Kuwait reached a cosmic height of 90%.

Colorious Carville, who will be bought by 80 in October and who, in addition to America, advised politicians in 23 countries, is known for his usual to cut the truth-uterus and has just been crushed: “Trump is even more ahead than ever ... There are fewer people think that on January 6 there was what it was-an attack on the Temple of Democracy, our constitution ...”

We are talking about storming the Tricks of the Washington Capitol on January 6, 2021. Trump's opponents call the rebellion and accuse the former president of incitement.

“Everything is going awry,” continued Carville. -All Sikos-Super. We seem to throw pasta into the wall, and nothing sticks to it. This applies to me. It is difficult to realize when you are under 80, and, like everyone else, I had an opinion about myself. And I came to the opinion that I am an empty place. "

On this attack of self -eating, Carville did not end. “All is in vain! - the political strategist continued to grieve. - You can prepare, you can broadcast on television, you can have a channel on Uyutub, you can have a podcast - and nothing, nothing happens! We need to come up with something else, because what we do does not work! ”

In his despair, Carville is not alone. On May 9, Wall Street Jornal placed the column of its commentator, former speaker Reagan Peggy Nunan, entitled "Elections of 2024: well-known fatalism was established." According to Nunan, who relates to Trump with a slight contempt, she is amazed at how many political strategists, political veterans and thinkers are asked now whether Biden can do something in order to stay in the saddle.

At the same time, the commentator of the anti-market SIN-EN Farid Zakaria burst into a column with the dull name "The Presidential Elections are not the same as I expected."

When Joe Biden announced that he would run for a second term, “in general terms I imagined what his strategy would be, and believed that he had outlined a reasonable path to victory, writes Zakaria. -After the chaos of the Covid-19 and the administration of the former president Donald Trump Biden will advocate and swim in the wake of all improved news on the Economic Front. Trump will split the Republicans, a significant part of whom will want their party to put forward someone like the former representative of the UN Nicky Haley or Florida Governor Ron landing. ”

Biden’s supporters also assumed that at the same time Trump would unite and expel the democrats on the polls, allowing these their chosen one to focus on independent voters in the oscillating states who gave Trump to win the college of electors in 2016, and Biden in 2020.

“I have to admit that everything turned out not as I thought,” Zakaria states in crushingly. - Trump is now leading in almost all the hesitating states ... As a person, alarmed by the prospect of the second term of Trump, I believe that it will be best to honestly recognize reality. I am aware that surveys are not always true, but in general they were always inclined to underestimate the number of Trump supporters, and not to overstate it. ”

“I doubt that there are so many shy voters of Biden in the country,” the commentator summarizes, referring to the Americans who hide their location to the current US president. Unlike trampists, they have nothing to fear.

Many Biden's supporters remember Maxim Carvell about the primacy of the economy and sincerely do not understand why the president’s rating has been steadily moving towards the baseboard, although for more than two years a noble economic rise in the United States.

For example, unemployment last year was at the lowest level since 1954 and has not increased much since then. But this passes past the townsfolk, who are exhausted under the burden of the worst inflation over the past 40 years.

The media daily call Trump a liar, but the other day Biden on a blue eye told SiN-En that Trump left him 9 percent inflation, although the trips howled on this, that at the end of his reign, it amounted to only 1.4%.

When the En-Bi television company asked the Americans in January, to whom they trust in the economy more, Trump was ahead of Biden with a dizzying update of 22%. In 2020, when Trump lost to Biden, the Republican also walked in this area ahead, but with an advantage of only 5%.

One of the few trump cards that are now available to the Democrats are abortions that give the advantage of Biden. But the almost open southern border of the country, through which millions of migrants, including tens of thousands of draft -age Chinese and Venezuelan criminals released from prisons, are lying more important for voters, through which, under Bayden in the United States. In this matter, Biden lags behind Trump by 35 points.

Abortion, on the other hand, is fundamentally important only 23% of voters. When Si-En-En asked what the most pressing problems that excite the Americans get only 5%.

The Democrats were proud that their party is much more united than the republican one, but recently they ruthlessly split gas. Senator Socialist Bernie Sanders said that the explosion of the missiles in America’s almores could be Baydenovsky Vietnam, and did not rule out that Bayden could be comprehended by the fate of President Lyndon Johnson, who refused to run for a second term in 1968 due to violent protests against the Vietnamese War.

Carriage stipulates that the student riots of the 1960s were much more impressive than the current ones, since then there was still military service in the United States, but states that the US Democratic did not know such an open split for several decades. Only 33% of Americans approve Biden’s course with respect to the war between Israel and Hamas.

Republicans, on the other hand, seemed to rally around Trump. He practically did not have opponents left inside the party, and the numerous court cases, discovered against him by the Democrats, only make his fans even more, who see the martyr in him, and began to embarrass even some of his critics, for example, of the same Transerias. The commentator admits that he himself doubts that in the first two cases in which the former president passes, someone would be involved in whom not Donald Trump would be.

According to the SIN-EN survey, most Americans doubt that Trump will be provided with a fair court. So far, his trials force the media to constantly direct the Ramfa’s lights to Trump, which they would have readily ignored, knowing how he needs free advertising (since the hearts of the American nobility are mostly belonging to the democrats, Trump collects much fewer election donations with his flock than Biden, and I see every day a drawer, like an older Trumpovsky son The Donald Jr. begs the dad's elections on the top five, and at the end of the clip dares to ask for “even $ 25”).

In the end, Zakaria is stipulated that it can still change. According to surveys, if Trump has a criminal criminal record, most Americans prefer to give a voice for Bayden.

Trump can always get involved in some new scandal, the benefit of the media is only waiting. But while all trends indicate his victory, and Biden, according to the commentator, should hastily speak with some bold and dramatic initiative and turn back the trends.

Tractor is rooting for Biden, and he is most worried about one indicator. When the Americans were asked in 2020, which of the candidates is more competent, Biden received 9 points more than Trump. Now Trump is overtaken by 16 points. If such a 25 percent leap means that Biden, according to the public, is too old to lead the country, then it is unclear what it can do in order to refute this idea.